Tulane vs Florida Picks: Bet Gators ATS to Ride Wave in Gasparilla Bowl December 20

Two teams entering the 2024 Gasparilla Bowl couldn’t be riding more different waves. After navigating a brutal SEC schedule and a heap of injuries, Florida surged late behind freshman phenom DJ Lagway to secure bowl eligibility.

Conversely, Tulane spiraled out of playoff contention faster than you can say “transfer portal,” losing its last two games and starting QB. It’s a mismatch in momentum and depth, and I’m here to tell you why the Gators will cover that -14 spread with ease.

Let’s break this down and make some winning NCAAF predictions to keep your pockets full this holiday week.

Gasparilla Bowl Game Information

• Game: Tulane Green Wave (9-4) vs Florida Gators (7-5)
• Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
• Day/Time: Friday, Dec 20, 3:30 p.m. ET
• Gasparilla Bowl Tulane vs Florida Live Stream: Fubo.tv

Tulane vs Florida Betting Preview

Missing Pieces Recipe for Disaster for Green Wave

The Green Wave were riding high not long ago, dreaming of crashing the College Football Playoff party. Then came back-to-back losses, a quarterback who made NCAAF news by entering the transfer portal and a defense springing more leaks than your uncle’s fishing boat.

With starting QB Darian Mensah off to Duke and backup Ty Thompson, who has thrown all of 11 passes this year, now under center, Tulane’s offense is in panic mode. Thompson might have once been a five-star recruit, but asking him to thrive against an SEC defense? That’s like trying to run a marathon in flip-flops.

This Friday at the Gasparilla Bowl, Ty Thompson will get his shot as QB1 for Tulane.

The Green Wave are currently a 14-point underdog to the Florida Gators. pic.twitter.com/54VLBHgmN4

— Garland Gillen (@garlandgillen) December 17, 2024

Sure, running back Makhi Hughes is still around and the guy is a baller. He averaged over five yards per carry and found the end zone 17 times this season. But here’s the rub — when Tulane needed him most (their last three games), he couldn’t crack 100 yards. And with Florida loading the box to dare Thompson to beat them? Good luck.

Florida’s Momentum is Real

The Gators are coming in hot after a solid late-season surge, where they held their own against heavyweights like Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee. Florida’s defense, often roasted like a holiday ham early in the year, found its footing, limiting top-tier offenses below their season averages.

Now, enter quarterback DJ Lagway. This dude has been the spark the Gators needed, showing off an arm that can push the ball downfield and the confidence of someone who didn’t spend the season running for his life. With Lagway leading the charge, Florida climbed into the top 40 for yards per play — no small feat in the SEC’s gauntlet.

Apparently it’s always #HotboyWednesday at the @GasparillaBowl! #UptownFootball pic.twitter.com/v0Rs4JTP0d

— Tulane Football (@GreenWaveFB) December 16, 2024

Tulane’s defense? Let’s say “explosive plays allowed” might as well be their middle name. Per Tulane vs Florida stats, the Green Wave rank outside the top 100 in stopping big runs and were shredded by the Army and Memphis late in the year. Florida’s ground game, led by a balanced attack, will feast. Expect the Gators to pound the rock, hit a few deep shots and keep Tulane’s defense gasping for air.

NCAAF Odds, Betting Trends, and What to Watch

The NCAA football spread opened with Florida as a double-digit favorite at BetUS Sportsbook for a reason. The betting public smelled blood early, hammering the Gators and driving the number to -14.

Tulane, meanwhile, has struggled against Power Four competition all year, losing to Kansas State (34-27) and Oklahoma (34-19). Facing an SEC  opponent with far more firepower and depth? That’s a recipe for another double-digit loss.

Per NCAAF betting trends, Florida has also been a spread-covering machine, cashing tickets in eight of their last nine games, including six straight-up wins as underdogs. The Gators are battle-tested, talented and playing in front of a crowd that’ll be far more orange and blue than green.

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NCAAF Predictions: Gators Cover, Tulane Wobbles

Let’s call it like it is — Tulane is limping into this matchup, missing its leader under center and staring down a Florida team with momentum, talent and far fewer distractions. The Green Wave are a good Group of Five team, but they’ve struggled to hang with the big boys, and the Gasparilla Bowl is no exception when making NCAA football picks.

Florida’s offense will control the tempo, DJ Lagway will continue to shine, and Tulane’s backup QB will run for his life against SEC-level speed. The Gators will pull away by the second half, leaving Tulane fans wondering how the season unraveled so fast.

Best Bet: Florida ATS (-14) vs Tulane

Bonus Play: Under 50 points is the online bet. Tulane’s offensive struggles and Florida’s grind-it-out approach will keep this from turning into a track meet.

The Gators finish strong, Lagway gets his highlight reel and Florida fans keep the good vibes rolling into 2025. Sorry, Tulane — better luck next season.

Question of the Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.