UMass Live Home Dog Against UConn
After reviewing the NCAAF lines on Saturday, I found a live home underdog with considerable value that will not only cover the college football odds but win this game outright. Let’s analyze this game between the UConn Huskies and the UMass Minutemen and keep cashing our college football picks!
Huskies Bite Back
UConn had gone four straight games without a win until they ran into lightly regarded FCS entry, Sacred Heart. Unsurprisingly the Huskies made short work of the Pioneers in a 31-3 home victory in which the UConn cashed as 25-point home chalk.
Huskies signal-caller, Ta’Quan Roberson, had an outstanding game but faced little pressure allowing him to choose his targets wisely. When the dust settled the 5-foot-11 junior struck for four touchdowns while Camryn Edwards carried the rock for 90 of the team’s 206 rushing yards.
Minutemen Bow to Liberty
UMass entered last week’s mismatch against Liberty riding a two-game winning streak but the chances it would make it three straight weres rather unlikely considering many of the best online sports betting sites tagged the Minutemen as 26-point road dogs.
Although the outcome went according to plan, had the Minutemen been more prepared for Liberty’s first-quarter onslaught, they might have been able to pull a stunning upset. The Flames sprinted to a 21-0 lead but UMass awoke from its slumber and kept pace with Liberty the rest of the game, being outscored by three points over the final three quarters.
UConn vs UMass
After checking out the college football games this weekend there are certainly more entertaining contests than this one between subpar New England programs. However, if there is money to be made, then we will watch the other games for enjoyment but put our hard-earned cash on those teams with value.
And I believe value is what we have with UMass. The line has fallen a full point on the favorite at some of the major online sportsbooks, which means the sharps are also seeing value on the Minutemen because the books are lowering the line on UConn, trying to attract more money on the road chalk.
The reasons I like UMass here are two-fold. First, the Minutemen hold a big advantage in the running game and will be facing a UConn run-stop unit that ranks 96th in the nation and allows nearly 166 rushing yards per game.
Here is Campiotti’s second TD of the day and receiving TD of the season#Flagship 🚩 pic.twitter.com/rcbw6bQgY3
— UMass Football (@UMassFootball) November 18, 2023
A healthy dose of the UMass running game will move the chains and kill time off the clock. UConn does not do anything well, which means the Huskies will be unable to counter with a withering aerial attack. I believe this will be a slow grind between schools that have an interesting pattern between them.
That pattern brings me to my second point. Wins and ATS covers have alternated between these schools over the last five meetings and if that pattern stands then we should see UMass not only covering the small number but winning this game outright after the Huskies’ 27-10 win and cover as 15½-point favorites last season.
In closing, UMass scores nearly seven points more per game and has the home-field advantage this year. Let’s grab the deuce and, perhaps, put a few bucks on the moneyline with UMass and bring home the cash!
College Football Pick: UMass +2
UConn vs UMass Game Information
- Game: UConn (2-9) vs UMass (3-8)
- Date/Time: Saturday, November 25, 12 p.m. ET
- Location: Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium, Amherst, MA
- Huskies vs Minutemen Live Stream: ESPN
UConn vs UMass Betting Lines
Questions Of The Day
Will UConn continue its winning streak against UMass?
No, because Connecticut has alternated wins and losses with the UMass and if the pattern holds true, UMass will not only cover but win this game outright.
Will UConn cover the spread?
Yes, technically they can cover but UMass has too many advantages, including the home-field that makes it unlikely the Huskies will cover the spread on Saturday.
