UNLV vs Boise State Picks: Bet Broncos ATS in MWC Championship December 06
- UNLV vs Boise State lines have the Broncos as a 4½-point favorite.
- UNLV is on a four-game winning streak.
- Boise State is making its third straight appearance in the Championship Game.
- Check my top 2 NCAAF predictions ahead.
The Mountain West Conference Championship Game holds a lot more weight this season than it has in previous campaigns, as a spot in the College Football Playoff field is in the balance. The Boise State Broncos enter their game with the UNLV Rebels with the possibility of being one of the top four seeds in the expanded field of 12 for the CFP, but they have to win to keep that possibility alive.
The college football lines have Boise State as a 4½-point favorite in a game that will be played on the Broncos’ home field. The over/under for the contest has been set at 58.
There is obviously a lot on the line, and these two teams have already played each other once this season. Boise State won 29-24 at UNLV on Oct. 25.
Continue reading for our best Mountain West Championship predictions.
UNLV vs Boise State Game Information
- Game: UNLV (10-2) vs Boise State (11-1)
- Date/Time: Friday, Dec. 6, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
- UNLV vs Boise State Live Stream: Peacock
Get updated UNLV vs Boise State injuries here.
UNLV vs Boise State Picks: 2 Bets for the MWC Championship
1. Boise State ATS (-4.5)
While it’s a secondary concern, the place among the betting favorites for the Heisman Trophy for running back Ashton Jeanty is certainly a legitimate goal for Boise State. Jeanty’s success running the ball leads to the Broncos’ success as a team, so both goals can be pursued at the same time.
Jeanty reached the 200-yard mark for the fifth time this season in last week’s win over Oregon State, finishing with 226 yards and a touchdown. He’s scored at least one touchdown in all but one game this season, which was a brief 11-carry, 127-yard game against Portland State in a blowout in September.
Whether you think Ashton Jeanty should win the Heisman or not…
You’ve gotta appreciate the greatness you watched this season
(via @BroncoSportsFB) pic.twitter.com/Mo8jCg2aks
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) December 2, 2024
Jeanty’s second-lowest yardage total in a game this season was against UNLV, when he carried the ball 33 times for just 128 yards, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry (compared to 7.3 for the season). He did have to go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Rebels, but he’d certainly like to do better in the rematch.
UNLV had the top run defense in the Mountain West Conference this season, limiting opponents to just 101.1 yards per game. The Rebels also topped the conference in rush offense, going for 254.1 yards per contest.
The UNLV run game is centered around a pair of runners, quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams and running back Jai’Den Thomas, who were seventh and eighth in rushing in the Mountain West Conference, respectively. Williams has rushed for 69.8 yards per game (768 total with nine TDs) while Thomas has averaged 69.3 yards per contest (832, seven TDs). Williams has also thrown for 1,735 yards and 17 touchdowns since taking over for Matthew Sluka, who left the team early in the season.
Obviously, the team that can run the ball better in what are expected to be temperatures in the mid to high 30s will have the edge. Our money is on Jeanty to make up for his previous performance against the Rebels and lead the Broncos to the win. Put your bet online on Boise State to win and cover on Friday night.
Bet On Boise State -4½ vs UNLV
2. UNLV vs Boise State Under 58
While Boise State has been successful in Mountain West play this season, it hasn’t always put up big numbers in scoring. Sure, the Broncos have a conference-best scoring average of 40.6 points per game, but just two weeks ago, against a two-win Wyoming squad, they managed just 17 in a narrow win.
UNLV is also a high-scoring unit, averaging 38.7 points per game, second only to the Broncos among Mountain West squads. But these teams are also solid defensively.
The Rebels lead the conference in scoring defense, allowing just 22.0 points per game, while Boise State is third at 23.2 points allowed per contest. With the pressure that will be on both teams to get a win and a potential spot in the College Football Playoff field, we think the scoring is going to be a little less than the first matchup.
The clock is going to be running a lot with both teams committing to the ground game. That means fewer possessions and chances to score.
Don’t expect a game where neither team gets to 10 points, but our college football predictions today include a score that finishes under the total of 58 points.
Bet on UNLV vs Boise State Under 58
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Question of the Day
What is the all-time series record between UNLV and Boise State?
The Broncos improved to 10-3 against the Rebels with their win earlier this season, which was their eighth straight victory in the rivalry.
