Week 4 College Football Upset Picks: Cash This Longshot Parlay
- BYU tries for the home upset against Kansas State.
- California takes on struggling Florida State in an ACC clash.
- Michigan State takes on Boston College in a non-conference matchup.
- Check the latest college football odds and make your winning bets.
The beauty of sports – and college football in particular – is the possibility of an upset. “Any given Sunday” translates to Saturdays as well, and we love to find some underdogs to parlay and make for a big payout at BetUS Sportsbook.
Power 4 conferences are getting underway with their league schedules, though there are some teams still playing non-conference games. We put together a parlay that includes each but has the common theme of underdogs coming through with wins.
Take a read of our roundup of longshot picks you should make when you bet online to make your Week 4 payoff a good one.
3 Legs to Bet for Longshot Parlay
1. BYU Looks For Upset vs Visiting Kansas State
The BYU Cougars haven’t been among the college football predictions for a Big 12 champion this season, but they shouldn’t be overlooked by any opponent. BYU already went on the road and upset then-ranked SMU this season, and it would love to make its Big 12 debut a winning one against the Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday.
Kansas State is 3-0 after beating up on Arizona last week in a clash of Big 12 schools that wasn’t a conference game due to it being scheduled prior to Arizona’s move to the league. Still, it was impressive, showing that Kansas State is a true contender for the Big 12 crown.
Sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson showed his versatility in the 31-7 win, throwing for 156 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 110 yards on 17 carries. Running back DJ Giddens came up just short of his third straight 100-yard rushing effort with 86 yards, but he has 324 yards and a touchdown this season.
Avery Johnson did it all in No. 14 Kansas State’s 31-7 win against No. 20 Arizona 🔥@KStateFB pic.twitter.com/vMXrIR75iC
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 14, 2024
But if BYU is going to pull the upset in this one, it’s going to have to contend with the Wildcats’ defense, which shut down Arizona. Kansas State, which brought back eight starters on the defensive side of the ball, already has 26 tackles for loss and 10 sacks.
That means Cougars quarterback Jake Retzlaff must not force things and allow the Wildcats to get big turnovers. The junior has already passed for 841 yards and seven touchdowns, but he also has three interceptions.
Retzlaff and the Cougars’ experience will help, as will playing at home, so we like BYU to beat the odds and come away with the upset.
2. California Keeps Florida State Reeling
Coming into the season, the Florida State Seminoles were looking to follow up on their undefeated regular season of a year ago with another successful run through the ACC. But things have been nothing like last season for the Seminoles, who are still looking for their first victory of 2024 after three games.
Florida State has struggled on offense, scoring as many as 14 points just once. Senior quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has had his problems in his third stop of his collegiate career (Clemson, Oregon State), passing for 666 yards but just one touchdown against two interceptions.
Now the Seminoles welcome the California Golden Bears to Tallahassee for the former Pac-12 school’s ACC debut. California is 3-0, including a win at Auburn two weeks ago, and it wants nothing more than to prove it belongs in its new conference with a road win.
“I don’t think (Florida State’s) record shows what kind of team they are,” California linebacker Cade Uluave said. “We’re excited to go down there and show what California can do in Florida. I think we’re ready.”
Sophomore quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been showing what he can do for the Golden Bears, passing for 589 yards and five touchdowns. More importantly, he’s thrown just one interception after throwing 10 as a freshman.
California’s defense has been solid as well, limiting its first three opponents to 14 points or less. That’s not good news for the Seminoles, who will struggle again as the Golden Bears make college football news with another road win.
Bet on California ML (+120)
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3. Michigan State Stays Unbeaten With Upset Of BC
There was optimism around the Michigan State Spartans this season thanks to a pair of Oregon State transplants: head coach Jonathan Smith and quarterback Aidan Chiles. So far, the Spartans have lived up to that optimism, starting 3-0 after a 4-7 season in 2023.
But Michigan State’s schedule takes a turn this week, with five straight opponents that have been ranked at some point this season, starting with a visit to face the Boston College Eagles. BC is coming off its first loss of the season, falling at then No. 6 Missouri last week, but the Eagles are not going to be an easy foe.
Junior quarterback Thomas Castellanos has thrown for 589 yards and nine touchdowns for BC, though he was hurt by two interceptions in the loss to the Tigers. That’s an area he must be better at against Michigan State, which had one of the highlights of Week 3 with a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown by cornerback Charles Brantley.
FROM END ZONE TO END ZONE ‼️‼️
This @MSU_Football TD is incredible 🤯#B1GFootball on @BigTenNetowrk pic.twitter.com/LvHmjaoGhC
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 14, 2024
The Spartans can also bring pressure, having racked up 11 sacks in its first three games.
Chiles and the MSU offense can be explosive as well. The sophomore has had his troubles at times, throwing four interceptions, but when he’s on, he can burn a defense. He’s thrown for 650 yards and four scores, including a 77-yarder in the fourth quarter of a win at Maryland earlier this season.
Michigan State also has a pair of running backs that can keep a defense honest in Kay’Ron Lynch Adams (210 yards, one TD) and Nate Carter (198 yards, one TD). The Spartans will lean on that duo to keep Boston College off the field in pulling the road upset. Make sure you include the Spartans when you’re making your college football picks this week.
Bet on Michigan State ML (+210)
Take A Look At These Other 2 NCAAF Special Articles
- NCAA Football Picks: 3 Unders You Should Bet in Week 4
- NCAA Football Picks: Parlay These Week 4 Favorites
Question Of The Day
When was the last time Florida State started a season 0-4?
The Seminoles began the 2021 season with four straight losses on the way to a 5-7 final record.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.