Week 7 Group of Five Best Bets

While Temple has managed to score points in its two most recent losses (34 and 26), both defenses in this game can give up yards in bunches, with the Owls allowing 423.7 and North Texas checking in at 483.6 yards per game. But one area that jumps out as North Texas’ biggest area of concern defensively has been against the run, and Temple averages only 90.7 yards per game on the ground.

The Owls have dealt with their own fair share of struggles against opposing rushing games, giving up north of 200 yards per game, and are now set to try to slow down Ayo Adeyi, who’s averaged 7.4 yards per attempt and scored three times this season. North Texas as a group has four players with more than 135 rushing yards this season, including quarterback Chandler Rogers, and between those four they’ve also scored nine times.

The North Texas rushing attack, paired with Rogers’ ability to avoid turnovers (one interception) and keep the defense honest through the air, as he’s thrown for 1,112 yards and eight scores, makes this matchup tough for Temple. I’ll take North Texas in a return back home and with a solid matchup on tap.

College Football Pick: North Texas -6.5 (-110)

CUSA: UTEP, FIU’s Struggles to Find the Endzone Continue

When UTEP and FIU meet in a mid-week matchup on Wednesday, Oct. 11, it’s a game where the only obvious path to pointscomes at the hands of some defensive struggles. Both teams averaged less than 350 yards of total offense and near the bottom in points per game across all of college football.

Florida International enters this game with a mark of 20.7 points per game, while UTEP has scored the fourth-fewest points in the college football this season, averaging 16.2. Here’s the catch — FIU has allowed 238.2 passing yards and 207.7 rushing yards on average this season, but UTEP hasn’t shown the ability to find the end zone often regardless.

UTEP running back Deion Hankins (73 carries, 380 yards, one touchdown) has put together a solid yards per carry average, but as his one touchdown highlights, finishing off drives with scores hasn’t been a strong suit.

Over the past four losses, UTEP has scored more than 10 points just once, in a 45-28 loss to UNLV. A similar sentiment stands true for FIU, and while they scored 17 last week, had just six points against Liberty the week prior while also winning two their three games while scoringjsut 24 and 14 points.

This game has low-scoring written all over it, and I think the end result is two teams finishing in the teens for points.

College Football Pick: Under 44

Mountain West: Fresno State Gets it Done on Both Sides of the Ball

While Fresno State is fresh off a tough 24-19 loss to Wyoming, they sit at 5-1 on the season, and now look to bounce back on the road against Utah State (3-3). Although Utah State has put up strong numbers offensively, averaging 462.8 yards per game, the Fresno State defense has been impressive.

The Bulldogs allow just 289.8 total yards per game, and prior to the loss to Wyoming, gave up a total of just 19 points in three games, including posting a shutout on the road against Arizona State.

As far as the offense goes, Mikey Keene has been exceptional, throwing for 1,692 yards and 15 touchdowns, but he suffered an ankle injury against Wyoming and his status is uncertain, per head coach Jeff Tedford. However, even if Keene can’t go, backup Logan Fife had a solid showing when he stepped in, completing 7-of-11 passes for 68 yards and one touchdown. He had an unfortunate batted pass get intercepted, but as 247Sports detailed, Tedford even admitted that Fife gave Keene a “run for his money” in the quarterback competition initially.

I like Fresno to bounce back nicely and get the job done, and if Keene is under center, I think this is a blowout win. With Fife, they still have more than enough talent and their defense is more than good enough to pick up a double-digit victory and prove to be one of the best NCAAF bets for Oct. 13.

College Football Pick: Fresno State -6 (-110)

MAC: Toledo Keeps Rolling vs Ball State

Through six games this season, Toledo has shown why they’re one of the favorites to win the MAC. While the tough opening-week loss to Illinois on the road by just two points was tough, they’ve bounced back to win three of their next five games by 17 or more points, with the most recent coming on the road.

It’s been a tough start to the year for Ball State, who sits at 1-5 and all five of their losses have come by at least 14 points, with four of them by 18 or more. Toledo has the passing attack with Dequan Finn (1,099 yards, 12 touchdowns, along with 413 rushing yards and four scores), as well as a dominant run game led by Peny Boone who’s averaging 7.6 yards per carry with 644 yards and seven touchdowns thus far.

Between Boone, Finn and running back Jacquez Stuart, Toledo has three players averaging 6.1 yards per rushing attempt and combining for 13 touchdowns over the first six games of the season. It’s tough to envision Ball State’s offense, which averages 190.2 passing yards and 111.7 rushing yards per game, finding a way to keep pace here.

If you’re targeting a player prop to monitor for later in the week, Finn’s rushing total, or a bet on him to score a touchdown (non-passing) is worth checking in on.

College Football Pick: Toledo -17 (-110)

Sun Belt: Points Galore Between Georgia Southern and James Madison

There’s been no shortage of scoring for two of the top teams in the Sun Belt. And when Georgia Southern (4-1) heads on the road to face James Madison (5-0) don’t expect that to change. Both teams average more than 33 points per game (35 and 33.2, respectively) and more than 400 yards of total offense, with Georgia Southern checking in at 471.6 yards per game this season.

Adding on to that is the fact that in three of five games this season, GA Southern has given up at least 28 points while JMU has allowed 23 or more in three of five (along with 35 and 38 points) games. James Madison has struggled defending the pass, allowing 311.4 yards per game through the air, while Georgia Southern quarterback Davis Brin is off to a strong start to the season, tallying 1,611 yards and 12 passing touchdowns in five games.

On the other side, James Madison quarterback Jordan McCloud should continue his own solid start to the year, as he’s thrown 11 touchdowns and totaled 1,173 yards. The run game is where the Dukes could make life even tougher for the Eagles, as the duo of Kaelon Black and Ty Son Lawton have both averaged nearly five yards per carry, with the latter scoring three times. James Madison has four players who have scored on the ground this season, with McCloud accounting for two touchdowns as well.

I think we see this game clear the over and two very tired defenses when the clock runs out.

College Football Pick: Over 58.5

Which Group of Five player will be the biggest X-factor in Week 7?

Toledo QB Dequan Finn. He’s totaled 1,099 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, 413 rushing yards and four scores on the ground. Any road game in college football can be a recipe for an upset, but he has the upside and talent to control the game for Toledo and make it a long day for Ball State.

Which is the most overlooked NCAAF Week 7 parlay pick?

Fresno State -6 and Georgia Southern/James Madison over 58.5 —the Bulldogs’ spread is pulled down a bit due to the uncertainty around Mikey Keene, but I don’t think it’ll matter. They matchup well here and have more than enough talent to win by double digits. And speaking of talent, the Georgia Southern vs James Madison game provides plenty of that, and there’ll be no shortage of offense in that matchup.