2025 Conclave Duration Props: Betting on the Number of Rounds to Elect the Next Pope
How many rounds of voting will it take to elect the next Pope? Let’s dive deeper into the odds at BetUS sportsbook and what are the expected outcomes.
How does the conclave work?
There’s a new sheriff in town … or at least there will be in the near future. Following the death of Pope Francis, the cardinals from all around the world will convene in the Vatican City in order to decide who should be the next leader of the Catholic Church. In order to receive the highest honor in the Church, a prospective candidate must receive a supermajority, or two-thirds of the votes from the cardinals.
There are plenty of potential contenders who are listed in the next Pope odds – from Luis Antonio Tagle (+150) and Pietro Parolin (+200), and there’s every reason to believe that this could be a fairly drawn-out process.
It probably won’t be as long as the conclave to elect Pope Gregory X, which lasted from November 1268 to September 1271 and which saw two sides – one loyal to the papacy and one loyal to the Holy Roman Empire – dig in and perform a figurative tug-of-war to decide the next Pope.
Over the past two centuries, the majority of conclaves have taken between two to five days – something to note when studying the odds for next Pope. The first day features one round of votes. If no candidate attains a supermajority, black smoke will emanate from a small chimney atop the Sistine Chapel, whereas if he does, white smoke will erupt from the chimney.
How many rounds does the conclave typically last?
As the saying goes, “A good comparison leaves everyone angry.” That may very well be the case for this year’s papal conclave if the cardinals fail to select a candidate soon, and it’s worth considering in your next Pope predictions. However, recent editions have shown a pattern of less discord and greater unison amongst the cardinals’ votes.
It took five rounds of voting as well as two days to elect Pope Francis in 2013, whilst it took four ballots and two days to elect Pope Benedict XVI in 2013. But despite this, the sportsbooks reflect a growing confidence from the pope picks market that it will take a fairly longer spell in order to choose the 267th Bishop of Rome.
The odds are on the new Pope to be decided on May 9 (+150) on the third day of voting, whilst all signs for pope predictions point to there being either 5-6 rounds of ballots (+150) or 7-8 (+150) rounds of voting.
Following 12 years of Pope Francis’ liberal policy-making, every Catholic in the world is watching with bated breath to find out whether the Church will stick with a left-leaning Pontiff or reverse course and anoint a more conservative, traditional leader.
Bet on Number of Rounds to Elect the Next Pope
Questions of the Day
How many rounds of voting does a conclave typically undergo?
It took five ballots to select Pope Francis in 2013, whereas it took four to elect his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI in 2005.
What was the longest conclave in history?
The longest conclave took nearly three years to determine a conclusive winner in the race to become the new Pope.
