The 95th Academy Awards airs Sunday and the voting is down to the final stages (ends March 7). The Academy Awards news has several contenders in a tight race. Among them include Everything Everywhere All At Once, which leads the field with 11 nominations, and All Quiet on the Western Front, which won big at the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA). While the odds remain (mostly) unchanged, how will the BAFTA results impact the upcoming awards?
All Quiet on the Oscars?
BAFTA took place on February 18 and was the second-last major awards show before the Academy Awards. Films that win here tend to have a good shot winning at the Oscars. Last year, six of the nine winners of the Best Picture, acting, screenplay, and cinematography categories won in both BAFTA and the Academy Awards.
This year, going by the Academy Awards predictions and odds, it may be a similar result. The Best Picture winner may be different as Everything Everywhere All At Once remains heavily favored at -1500 while All Quiet on the Western Front, which won Best Film at BAFTA, is a distant runner-up at +850.
“Deeply affecting and timeless. A powerful, human odyssey about the cost of endless war.” Experience BAFTA Best Film Winner All Quiet on the Western Front, nominated for 9 Academy Awards including Best Picture and Best International Feature. Watch now on Netflix. pic.twitter.com/jbdAvlEIMj
— All Quiet On The Western Front (@allquietmovie) February 27, 2023
The film also brought home the Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, and Best Director for Edward Berger. But going by the Academy Awards odds, the film is only expected to win Best Cinematography. It is second on the Adapted Screenplay odds at +125 behind Women Talking (-250) while Berger is not even a nominee for Best Director.
BAFTA vs Oscars: Acting Categories Diverge
Another point of contention are the acting categories. Other than Cate Blanchett, who won for Tar, we may see different winners for all the awards. Blanchett is tied with Michelle Yeoh at -120 for the Best Actress award. Blanchett won at BAFTA and the Critics Choice Awards and was favored to win. But Yeoh has picked up momentum with a win at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards.
As for Yeoh’s co-star, Ke Huy Quan, he is the runaway favorite to capture the Best Supporting Actor award at -5000. He has won the award in practically every awards show except for one: BAFTA. It was Barry Keoghan of The Banshees of Inisherin that claimed the award. And in similar fashion, Kerry Condon took home the Best Supporting Actress award.
But going by the online gambling odds, neither is expected to win the Oscar as Keoghan is a longshot at +1200 while Condon is behind Angela Bassett (-110) and Jamie Lee Curtis (+125) at +225.
The Best Actor award will be another one to monitor. Currently, Brendan Fraser of The Whale is installed as the -225 favorite. However, Elvis’s Austin Butler (+115) has built plenty of support. The 31-year-old won the award in BAFTA the Golden Globes over Fraser and has seen his betting line shorten after each award show.
But the latter won the Critics’ Choice Awards and the SAG Awards. Fraser has also made headlines with his scathing comments regarding awards. This may or may not affect how the Academy feels about him.
What About the British?
BAFTA saw The Banshees of Inisherin win multiple awards partly because it was a British production. It won Outstanding British Film and Best Original Screenplay along with the supporting acting categories.
As far as Academy Awards picks are concerned, The Banshees of Inisherin is set to win Best Original Screenplay at -175. That may be its only victory as it is an underdog everywhere else.
But other British productions are in a better place to go home with Academy Awards. An Irish Goodbye is a slight favorite at even money to win Best Live Action Short Film over Le Pupille (+130). The Boy, the Mole, the Fox & the Horse is a more likely winner for the Best Animated Short category. Those betting online will need to stake $400 to get a return of $100 (-400).
