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Early Look at Academy Awards Best Picture Odds

The Academy Awards are only three months away, so now is a good time to look at the latest entertainment odds for Best Picture.

Most of the early hype has come for Oppenheimer, which is the -200 betting favorite. However, there are strong contenders with Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, and Barbie.

Early Look at Academy Awards Best Picture Odds
This combination of pictures created on December 10, 2023 | Valerie Macon / AFP

It’s one of the more even betting markets for Best Picture in recent history.

Oppenheimer to End With a Bang

Oppenheimer has been a front-runner with the sportsbook since the epic movie was released.

The Christopher Nolan-directed drama competed with Barbie for box office sales, and although losing in that battle, it has Best Picture written all over it.

However, the Academy doesn’t always award the best movie with the prize. Despite its stunning visuals and great writing, Oppenheimer doesn’t portray a ‘woke’ image, which is the flavor of the month.

Moves like Barbie and newcomer Poor Things fit that bill, but we’ll talk about those later.

Nolan is, however, a favorite with the Academy. His past movies have been held in high regard, including The Dark Knight, Interstellar, Inception, and Dunkirk.

It comes as no surprise to see Oppenheimer at -200 to win Best Picture in 2024, and not many would disagree with the pick. However, as betting online markets suggest, it’s not a lock to secure the victory.

Poor Things Makes Award Run

Movies released later in the year are always targeting the Academy Awards.

They are on the minds of the Academy more than movies released earlier in the year, and Poor Things could be the flavor of the month.

The story about a woman brought back to life in the hopes of finding equality and liberation seems a bit drab, but there has been steady entertainment betting support for the Searchlight Films picture.

Boasting a 93% Rotten Tomatoes rating, Poor Things appeals to modern voters. Recent Best Picture winners include CODA, Nomadland, Green Book, and Moonlight. All four of those movies weren’t the most entertaining, but they had a good message.

That seems to be the criteria for winning Best Picture, so Poor Things shouldn’t be overlooked at +600 odds.

Money could come for it over the next couple of months as the movie picks up traction.

Scorsese Magic?

Killers of the Flower Moon has a strong chance of winning at +225.

The Martin Scorsese-directed film is on the second line of online betting odds, and we’re not shocked.

The filmmakers hand-picked some of the Academy’s favorite actors, including Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert de Niro, Brendan Fraser, and Jesse Plemons.

They are all award-winning actors, and the American epic Western drama has all the makings of a Best Picture winner.

Everyone loves a Scorsese epic, and although the running time is long, as is the case with all of his movies, it’s a great watch.

Credit to the author of the book, who accurately portrayed the story of a Native American member of the Osage Nation who tries to save her community from evil and greed.

It’s entertaining and gripping; we’re not leaving it out of our selections.

Could Barbie Win?

Barbie isn’t a movie that would typically win Best Picture, but the same could have been said for Everything Everywhere All at Once.

The Academy could feel pressure to give Greta Gerwig an award after being snubbed for directing Little Women.

It was a huge box office success, amassing $1.442 billion on a $145 million budget, which is as good as it gets.

For comparison, Flowers of the Killing Moon has totaled $150 million on a $200 million budget. Box office numbers don’t make for a good movie, just look at 99% of Marvel films, but Barbie is different.

It not only had a good message, but it was well-acted, and it was visually appealing. It might have included some easy cheap laughs, which plague Hollywood films, but Barbie winning Best Picture wouldn’t be a shock at +900.


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