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Odds be Damned: Fade Scheffler, McIlroy at PGA Championship

· May 15 - 5 minutes read

The 2024 PGA Championship tees off at Valhalla this week, and all the hype surrounds Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy.

However, their odds with golf betting markets are too short for our liking, and we look at why they won’t win and who’s a good bet to upset the favorites. Defending champion Brooks Koepka and his LIV comrades lead the charge.

Odds be Damned: Fade Scheffler, McIlroy at PGA Championship — Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland - Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Backing Scheffler Comes With a Caveat

Bettors get +400 for Scheffler to win the PGA Championship, and we’re not touching those odds.

He might be hotter than hot, and soon they’ll be calling him Scottie Too Hottie. However, golf betting trends rarely disappoint, and they don’t bode well for the American.

Scheffler, who recently welcomed his first child into the world, has yet to win a PGA Tour tournament post-April, and that can’t be overlooked.

Scottie Scheffler arrived at the PGA Championship after the birth of his son.

The new dad spoke with Todd Lewis (@ToddLewisGC). pic.twitter.com/vlOmOQVQt3

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) May 14, 2024

He has been in incredible form throughout February, March and April, but that’s the norm. He has won 100% of his tournaments during that three-month span, and May falls outside his winning jurisdiction.

Records are there to be broken, but it has been the case for a few years now, and we don’t want to take +400 odds with Scheffler because of it.

Scheffler could well think nothing of this stat and win by seven strokes, but we’re backing ourselves with this betting trend until he proves otherwise.

Bet on Scheffler at +400

10 Years and Counting for McIlroy

We promise we’ll get to the golfers we fancy to win the 2024 PGA Championship soon, but McIlroy is another golfer we are avoiding this week.

The Northern Irishman won the Zurich Classic with Shane Lowry before winning the Wells Fargo Championship for the fourth time last week.

The five-shot victory over Xander Schauffele showed his class, especially on Sunday. However, when it comes to majors, McIlroy isn’t the player he once was.

He won his four majors early in his career, but he hasn’t won a major since 2014. That’s 10 years, which is a long time for a golfer of his quality.

It’s a major concern for bettors looking at his +300 odds. He might be one of the form golfers in the field, but the pressure is on him to perform, and history tells us he won’t.

Bet on 2024 Major Golfer Winner

Koepka Always a Major Threat

We love backing Brooks Koepka in majors, and there’s no denying his record on the big stage.

The LIV golfer is a five-time major winner, which puts him above the likes of McIlroy and Scheffler, and even above some of the greatest golfers of all time.

Yet, he’s not mentioned in the same breath. That’s because he puts most of his energy toward playing well in the big tournaments, and the defending PGA Championship winner is back to his best.

He won his fourth LIV tournament two weeks ago. He was the first LIV golfer to win four events and he doesn’t need any more confidence entering Valhalla Golf Club.

Swing coach Pete Cowen believes Valhalla suits Koepka’s game.

“He’s put in the hours and turned it around on the greens since then and with Valhalla being a big boys’ course, I can see him, at the very least, contending,” Cowen said of his pupil. “If he wins, he’ll join (Sir Nick) Faldo and (Phil) Mickelson on six majors and at his age that would be exciting. They’d probably still go on underrating him, though.”

He hasn’t been underrated in betting markets. Koepka is a +1400 chance to win, and being on the third line of betting shows that he’s getting the credit he deserves.

Bet on Koepka at +1400

The LIV Charge is Coming

Koepka isn’t the only LIV player with an excellent chance of winning the PGA Championship.

We are including Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm in our selections at odds of +2500 and +1600, respectively.

DeChambeau has relaxed a lot on and off the course, and we believe he will start winning majors again.

The 2020 U.S. Open champion has a great record on the LIV and the PGA Tour, so underrating his chances of winning at Valhalla would be a mistake.

Bettors get value odds for DeChambeau, who will have no problem dealing with the length of the course as he’s one of the longest hitters in the world.

Rahm has yet to finish worse than T10 at LIV, but he’s also yet to win. However, the Spaniard is a proven major winner and he’s another top pick.

He was always going to need time to adjust to the different life that LIV brings, but Rahm will be dialed in for the PGA Championship.

He wants more major wins added to his impressive record, so back Rahm at +1600 to win.