Difficult is Understatement When Trying to Decipher Kentucky Derby Day Pick 6

Hitting a Pick 6 is the dream of any player, but doing it on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs is the ultimate. Saturday’s sequence is tough as always with deep, competitive fields, and the weather forecast won’t help when deciphering the horse racing odds. Showers are expected to end in the morning, so the main track could start as sloppy and be upgraded to good by Race 7, and perhaps fast for the Derby. The turf course will likely be yielding or good.

Let’s check the latest news, stats, injury reports, and Kentucky Derby odds for Kentucky Derby 2022. We’ve plenty of Kentucky Derby betting predictions for you to consider.

Here’s A Ticket To Ride That Could Come Up Roses

• Race 7 (Pat Day Mile Stakes, 1 mile, post time 1:56 p.m. ET). Jack Christopher (No. 5)

Makes his 3-year-old debut as the 2-1 morning-line favorite. The Chad Brown trainee was 2-for-2 as a 2-year-old. Pappacap (3) exits the Kentucky Derby trail after holding his own in the Florida Derby and picks up elite jockey Flaven Prat for trainer Mark Casse. Trafalgar (9) is a live long shot. He couldn’t handle the Louisiana road to the Derby, but could find this field more to his liking with a clean break in the one-turn race for 3-year-olds.

• Race 8 (Derby City Distaff Stakes, 7 furlongs, 2:48).

Two-time defending Eclipse Award winning trainer Brad Cox has two in here, and both will be tough. Lady Rocket (No. 1) should be a forward presence from the bell while Just One Time (2) provides an off-the-pace option. An intriguing horse is Edgeway (7). He should get a great stalking trip under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez and could spring a mild upset in the seven-furlong test.

• Race 9 (American Turf Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, 3:40).

This could be a closer’s race. Balnikhov (No. 5) makes his second start in the U.S. for California trainer Phil D’Amato, and should have no trouble with off turf. Balnikhov just missed in his U.S. debut with a competitive speed figure. Sy Dog (7) is 3-for-3 lifetime and has the services of top pilot Irad Ortiz. Sy Dog isn’t as fast as some of the others, but is one of two in the field with a graded stakes victory. A long shot to consider is Smokin’ T (1), ridden by Velazquez and trained by Shug McGaughey. Smokin’ T makes his third start in the form cycle and can benefit with a ground-saving trip from the rail. He is 15-1 on the morning line in the racebook.

• Race 10 (Churchill Downs Stakes, 7 furlongs, 4:31).

Most players need to find a single when constructing a Pick 6 ticket, and most will land on Jackie’s Warrior (No. 3). The champion sprinter of 2021 won his 2022 debut and it doesn’t appear there is anyone in this field that can stay with him. If jockey Joel Rosario doesn’t go too fast early, Jackie’s Warrior should have plenty left in the stretch. Jackie’s Warrior is 2-for-2 at Churchill after winning the Pat Day Mile last year. His top competition should come from 2021 Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion Aloha West (1) and Prevalence (6), who has won two straight with competitive speed figures.

• Race 11 (Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic, 1⅛ miles, 3:27).

Brown has won the last three of these and boasts three horses in this field. Public Sector (No. 3), Tribhuvan (4) and Adhamo (8) are all capable of winning. Tribhuvan could be tough as the controlling speed. He hasn’t raced since November, but Brown usually brings them back running. A non-Brown horse that could spring an upset is Santin (10), who makes his third start in the cycle. Tyler Gaffalione must get him out of the gate quickly to avoid losing too much ground on the first turn.

• Race 12 (Kentucky Derby, 1¼ miles, 6:57).

There are a number of directions to go in the Kentucky Derby. Speed horses have dominated this race since Orb came from way back to prevail in 2013. Messier (No. 6) and long shot Zozos (19) are two horses who will be forwardly placed. Zozos starts from the second-most outside post, but has plenty of speed – and a long run through the stretch for the first time – to secure a good spot on the first turn. Messier will likely be no worse than three-wide on the first turn. Those with deeper pockets should of course consider others. Other horses worth considering are likely race favorites when betting online in Zandon (10) and Epicenter (3), and long shot Charge It (8).

POOR MAN’S PLAY ($43.20): 3, 5, 9 with 1, 2, 7 with 1, 5, 7 with 3 with 3, 4, 8, 10 with 6, 19

DEEP POCKETS ($324): 3, 5, 9 with 1, 2, 7 with 1, 5, 7 with 1, 3, 6 with 3, 4, 8, 10 with 3, 6, 8, 10, 19

Kentucky Derby Post Positions, Horse, Trainer, and Jockey

1. Mo Donegal, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr.
2. Happy Jack, Doug O’Neill, Rafael Bejarano.
3. Epicenter, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario.
4. Summer Is Tomorrow, Bhupat Seemar, Mickael Barzalona.
5. Smile Happy, Kenny McPeek, Corey Lanerie.
6. Messier, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez.
7. Crown Pride, Koichi Shintani, Christophe Lemaire.
8. Charge It, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez.
9. Tiz the Bomb, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr.
10. Zandon, Chad Brown, Flavien Prat.
11. Pioneer of Medina, Todd Pletcher, Joe Bravo.
12. Taiba, Tim Yakteen, Mike Smith.
13. Simplification, Antonio Sano, Jose Ortiz.
14. Barber Road, John Ortiz, Reylu Gutierrez.
15. White Abarrio, Saffie Joseph Jr., Tyler Gaffalione.
16. Cyberknife, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux.
17. Classic Causeway, Brian Lynch, Julien Leparoux.
18. Tawny Port, Brad Cox, Ricardo Santana Jr.
19. Zozos, Brad Cox, Manny Franco.
20. Ethereal Road, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras.

Also eligible

21. Rich Strike, Eric Reed, Sonny Leon.
22. Rattle N Roll, Kenny McPeek, James Graham.