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Kentucky Derby Notebook: Could Another Bomb Win Run for the Roses?

Rich Strike’s Victory at 80-1 in 2022 Still Resonates

Rich Strike’s victory in the 2022 Kentucky Derby still has many scratching their heads. The former $30,000 claimer weaved his way through the field to score a stunning upset at 80-1. Wil another longshot win the 149th renewal on Saturday? We’ll also examine post positions, Beyer speed figures and whether the weather could factor into your Kentucky Derby picks.

Sonny Had His Day With Ride of a Lifetime

Unheralded jockey Sonny Leon provided one of the most outstanding rides in Derby history when he guided Rich Strike past 17 horses in the last half mile to prevail. Rich Strike paid $163.60 for $2 to win when betting online, the second-largest price in Derby history.

Kentucky Derby Notebook: Could Another Bomb Win Run for the Roses?
Rich Strike looks on after a morning workout - Al Bello/Getty Images/AFP

Another remarkable aspect is that Rich Strike was running for the roses only because another horse was scratched the day before. Rich Strike hasn’t won since his epic achievement. However, he will have a chance to snap his five-race slide in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs on Friday. He is the 7-2 morning-line fourth choice among seven going 1 1-1/16 miles.

Will another surprise occur in the 2023 Derby? Cyclone Mischief is this year’s No. 21. He drew into the field when Practical Move scratched due to a fever on Thursday. Cyclone Mischief will surely be an underlay in the Kentucky Derby odds.

This year’s field is highly intriguing with domestic and foreign horses alike, but 3-1 favorite Forte (post 15) will be tough to beat. Also, the early fractions during Rich Strike’s magical run were insanely fast for the first time since Giacomo won from way off the pace at 50-1 in 2005.

Post Position Draw Leaves Some on Inside Looking Out

The highest-regarded horses in the 2023 Kentucky Derby all drew favorable post positions. Forte starts from the 15 gate, the same spot Authentic began his winning run in 2020. The 15 post has produced six Derby champions in 61 tries, according to Bloodhorse.com, since the starting gate was instituted in 1930. That 9.8 winning percentage is third-highest behind post five (10.8%) and post 10 at 10.5.

Speaking of posts five and 10, that’s where you’ll find Tapit Trice (5-1) and Disarm (30-1). Angel of Empire (8-1) has the 14-hole, which has produced two winners in 66 tries.

Here are a couple more tidbits to consider:

  • Derma Sotogake (10-1) drew post 17, which is 0-for-43. However, with all the scratches, Derma Sotogake will not break from gate 17. So, he dodges that bullet.
  • Posts 1, 2, and 3 have combined for one win since Ferdinand won from the rail in 1986. Only Real Quiet (post 3 in 1988) has prevailed from the inside trio of slots. Hit Show (50-1, post one), Verifying (12-1, two) and Two Phil’s (12-1, three) are out to buck that trend.
  • Post 10 has finished in the money at a 29.1% rate.

2023 Kentucky Derby Post Positions

The Field: Who’s Got the Biggest Beyer Speed Figures?

Beyer speed figures have been published in the Daily Racing Form since 1992, and are a reliable tool in helping bettors craft their selections. Saturday’s race features three horses who have accomplished a triple-digit Beyer: Two Phil’s, Practical Move and Forte.

Two Phil’s (12-1, post 3) ran a 101 on a synthetic track in winning a Derby prep at Turfway. Practical Move has earned 100s in his last two starts, a sign that a bigger number could be coming after pairing up career tops. Forte got a 100 in winning the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. A concern in the Beyer world is that Forte’s last two were 98 and 95. Declining numbers are usually a bad sign, but trainer Todd Pletcher doesn’t seem concerned.

He doesn’t always tout himself every morning, he just kind of comes out here and does his job, but you can tell the way he looks, the way he’s maintained his weight, his appetite, his energy level, everything looks just the way you want with him at this stage,” Pletcher told DRF.com.

Weather Report Indicates Fast Track is Likely

The track condition is an important consideration when making your Kentucky Derby predictions, and a less-than-certain forecast – aren’t they all? – doesn’t help. It seems, though, that a fast track should welcome the Derby horses as Saturday’s forecast calls for 72 degrees with cloudy skies and a slight chance of rain.

If the weatherman is wrong — again, Forte shouldn’t mind any off going. He is 1-for-1 in the slop.

Be sure to keep an eye on the Kentucky Derby news before heading to the racebook prior to The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.

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