Belmont and Travers winner Tiz the Law is expected to be a heavy favorite in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby despite landing post 17 in what was a field of 18 at Tuesday’s draw. The weather at Churchill Downs is expected to be perfect on the first Saturday in September as the Run for the Roses occurs four months late due to the COVID-19 pandemic. To get in on all the action, head to BetUS and punch your tickets. By the way, no horse has won the Derby from post 17! There was some news Thursday as King Guillermo, a 20-1 shot, spiked a fever and will scratch. And another piece of news Friday as Finnick the Fierce has been scratched, too. With his withdrawal, posts 1, 2, and 20 will be left empty in the new 20-stall starting gate.
Make sure to check out all the Kentucky Derby odds and check out the menu of our prop bets on the Run for the Roses, too.
146th Kentucky Derby
Location: Churchill Downs, Louisville (Ky)
Distance: 1 1/4 miles/10 furlongs
Purse: $3 million
TV: 12-2:30 p.m. ET NBCSN, 2:30-7:30 p.m. ET NBC
Post time: 7:01 p.m.
The horses in post position order
1. Finnick the Fierce (SCRATCHED)
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Rey Hernandez
Career record: 9 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 2 thirds
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: If you want to cheer on an underdog, it would be Finnick the Fierce. He is way overmatched here but is also the most courageous horse in the field, racing despite having sight in only one eye. Miracles can happen and remember FTF finished ahead of Tiz the Law in the Kentucky Jockey Club over this same Churchill Downs strip last year. Sadly, he isn’t in the same league as these.
2. Max Player
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 2 thirds
Morning line: 30-1
Comment: Max Player moves from the barn of Linda Rice to Steve Asmussen after finishing well behind Tiz the Law in the Belmont and Travers. His Beyer in the Travers was a career-best 99. That won’t be anywhere near good enough to earn the roses.
3. Enforceable
Jockey: Adam Beschizza
Trainer: Mark Casse
Career record: 10 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 2 thirds
Morning line: 30-1
Comment: Enforceable’s best career Beyer came in his most recent start, a 91 while finishing fourth in the Blue Grass. He could be more than 25 lengths back at the finish of the Derby.
4. Storm the Court
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Trainer: Peter Eurton
Career record: 9 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 3 thirds
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: Storm the Court shocked the world at $45.90-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita last year. He has not found the winner’s circle in five starts since. It would be worth it to see Storm the Court win as NBC’s Britney Eurton is the daughter of trainer Peter Eurton. Don’t count on it.
5. Major Fed
Jockey: James Graham
Trainer: Greg Foley
Career record: 6 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 1 third
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: Major Fed’s lone win was in a Maiden Special Weight at the Fair Grounds. He’s another of the horses that will be in the starting gate with no chance of winning the race. One of the perils of the Derby being open to so many entrants,
Make sure to check out all the betting possibilities and props at BetUS. And check out the menu of our prop bets on the Run for the Roses, too.
6. King Guillermo (SCRATCHED)
Jockey: Samy Camacho
Trainer: Juan Avila
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Morning line: 20-1
Comment: “Unfortunately, we will not be at the Kentucky Derby this Saturday,” trainer Carlos Avila wrote in a translated tweet Thursday. “A fever yesterday afternoon took us away from this great dream. [The first priority] is the health of our King Guillermo, who will be ready to show that he is one of the best in the country sooner rather than later.”
7. Money Moves
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Career record: 3 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Morning line: 30-1
Comment: Lightly raced son of Candy Ride is making his fourth career start. Money Moves has great connections Castellano and Pletcher. He would have to improve tremendously to be a threat in the Kentucky Derby. Anything can happen with 18 in the game and that is what the connections have to be hoping.
8. South Bend
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: Bill Mott would have to have another demolition Derby like 2019 and somehow find his horse in the right place at the right time for South Bend to give the trainer a repeat victory in the Kentucky Derby. Highly unlikely. South Bend won his first three career starts and has not win in his last 10. If you are looking for an angle, any angle, South Bend is 2-for-3 at Churchill Downs.
9. Mr. Big News
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: Talk about overmatched. Mr. Big News’ best Beyer figure is 88. His two victories came at 6-1 and 46.-1. Let’s just hope he and the other pretenders stay out of the way of the horses with true shots at the win.
10. Thousand Words
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Career record: 7 starts – 4 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Morning line: 15-1
Comment: How about that price on a Bob Baffert horse coming in off a wire-to-wire victory that earned a 104 Beyer figure in the Shared Belief. There were major hopes for Thousand Words early and he finally ran back to them in his last race. The downside is it was a four-horse field, which isn’t what will be going on Saturday. He did finish ahead of Honor A.P., the expected second choice in the Derby. Baffert is capable of winning any race, any time, especially the Derby. Don’t expect to see 15-1.
11. Necker Island
Jockey: Miguel Mena
Trainer: Chris Hartman
Career record: 10 starts -2 wins – 0 seconds – 3 thirds
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: The two victories have come over Churchill Downs in four starts at the track. He’s run third in his last two races and it would be stunning if he gets the show dough in the Derby.
12. Sole Volante
Jockey: Luca Panici
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Career record: 7 starts – 4 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Morning line: 30-1
Comment: Was well back of King Guillermo went second in the Tampa Bay Derby. Was unimpressive in the Belmont when finishing seventh well, well back of Tiz the Law.
13. Attachment Rate
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Trainer: Dale Romans
Career record: 8 starts – 1 win – 3 seconds – 1 third
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: His one win was over a sloppy track at Gulfstream. He would be the mother of all shockers. Not happening.
14. Winning Impression
Jockey: Joe Rocco Jr.
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Career record: 9 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 2 thirds
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: No chance. Absolutely none.
15. Ny Traffic
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Career record: 9 starts – 2 wins – 3 seconds – 2 thirds
Morning line: 20-1
Comment: He’s always around but hardly finishes first as you can tell by his 2-for-9 record. However, that makes Ny Traffic dangerous as the come to the close of the 10 furlongs. Could Derby Day be the day he finds his way to the finish line first? The price is nice. He hasn’t won since Jan. 11 and appears a cut below the top competitors. That said his Beyers continue to improve and the son of Cross Traffic could menace late with the right trip.
16. Honor A. P.
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Career record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 3 seconds – 0 thirds
Morning line: 5-1
Comment: This horse finishes second then first then second then first then second then …. you get the picture. Honor A.P.’s past performances suggest he will win the Kentucky Derby. The jockey-trainer combination is to be feared. He wasn’t able to get to Thousand Words in the four-horse Shared Belief but did look to kick in somewhat late. Would not be a shock if he won. That said he’s highly fancied and not sure he has earned such lofty praise … yet.
17. Tiz the Law
Jockey: Manny Franco
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Career record: 7 starts – 6 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Morning line: 3-5
Comment: This could be the first time a morning line sends shivers into bettors. At 3-5 in an 18-horse race, this suggests Tiz the Law is heading for a romp. He’s won the Belmont and the Travers and rolls into Kentucky. The cause for pause is the one loss came at Churchill, granted on a sloppy track. This doesn’t mean he will handle it any better on fast going. Some horses simply don’t like Churchill Downs. Watching his races, there is absolutely nothing to dislike. Why, then, does the overboard morning line create a feeling of dread?
18. Authentic
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Career record: 5 starts – 4 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Morning line: 8-1
Comment: Another strong contender from Baffert. This is a stable that lost numbers Derby contenders for a variety of reasons and it still spits out horses that can win the Derby. The Haskell win was not visually impressive as he barely held off NY Traffic. That said, Authentic’s numbers keep improving and he’ll be off and winging when the gate opens.
The pick:
There is every reason to believe Tiz the Law will continue his stellar campaign. No horse has been within three lengths of him in 2020. That’s impressive. As much as the gut feeling is he won’t get it done, it is impossible to pick off the Barclay Tagg trainee. Ny Traffic and Max Player are live longshots underneath. Wish I could pick against the favorite but nothing compares. It would take a brutal trip to get him beat.
Props
If the chalk isn’t your game, and who is to blame you in a 17-horse field, there are plenty of other racebook wagering options. The winner starts from gates 11-20 is -200 but it feels like a bigger gift than Tiz the Law because, with King Guillermo out, the only horse to fear is Thousand Words from post 10. And, by the way, Secretariat’s track record won’t be broken. But at -4000 that’s way too deep a hole to dig.
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