Bettor Include Live Longshot in Kentucky Oaks-Derby Double

Our ticket begins with two of the Kentucky Oaks favorites in the horse racing odds. The track is expected to be sloppy but don’t fret: Each horse owns a win over an off track.

Kentucky Oaks: Experience Matters

Among the five lowest-priced horses in the Kentucky Oaks, three – Thorpedo Anna, Ways and Means and Just F Y I – make their second starts of the year. It’s a lot to ask a 3-year-old filly who is short on experience to win a Grade 1 race before a crowd of more than 100,000, so the other two get the nod in our Oaks-Derby Double.

Tarifa (post 8) and Leslie’s Rose (14) each make their fourth starts of 2024, and their experience makes them attractive plays here. Tarifa boasts excellent connections in trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flaven Prat, who should work out a good trip from his middle post. Leslie’s Rose drew outside, but the nation’s best jockey (Irad Ortiz Jr.) should be able to map something out. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher conditions the daughter of Into Mischief.

#KyOaks favorite Tarifa galloping pic.twitter.com/A5YkmDgWTI

— Nicole Russo (@DRFRusso) April 30, 2024

Tarifa is the 7-2 morning-line favorite while Leslie’s Rose is listed at 9-2. The second-time starters should also attract plenty of attention at the windows, so these prices could be close to what you’ll get at post time, which is 5:51 p.m. ET on Friday.

“Hopefully, she gets away well (and) gets a good, clean trip,” Cox said of Tarifa. “I think she’s going to like the mile and an eighth.”

Kentucky Derby: Strong Favorite, but Honor Longshot Closer

Honor Marie (7), a longshot at 20-1, and Fierceness (17), the 5-2 morning-line favorite, are the picks to anchor the ticket.

Honor Marie is a deep closer who needs a fast pace and some traffic luck as he’ll probably have to pass about 15 horses to win the Kentucky Derby. The post is good and the pace should be fast – two key factors in getting him to the winner’s circle.

The 96 Beyer that Honor Marie earned while finishing second to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby puts him right there with the other contenders – except for Fierceness, so he belongs. The son of Honor Code makes his third start of the year and could be sitting on a big one. He will likely be around 20-1, creating juicy Oaks-Derby probables.

Honor Marie’s trainer, Whit Beckman, served as an assistant to Pletcher and Chad Brown before going out on his own. The Louisville native has his first Derby horse who is working up a storm. Speaking of rain, it may stop by post time, but the track it leaves behind – regardless of condition – shouldn’t be an issue for Honor Marie.

Honor Marie with a notably measured 5f drill that unfolded in 12.0, 23.4, 35.3, 47.2, 59.1, out 6f in 1:12.3, double out 7f in 1:27.3. Internal splits: 12.0, 11.4, 11.4, 11.4, 11.4 👀 pic.twitter.com/s6qWa1fAWz

— Steve Byk (@Steve_Byk) April 25, 2024

“To win a Derby would be life-changing,’’ Beckman told Thoroughbred Racing Commentary. “I’m just hoping he has a good trip and then we’ll see how the cards fall. I’m just happy to be here, happy to have the experience.”

Honor Marie was born on May 4, 2021. Is there a better way to celebrate your third birthday?

Fierceness will be the favorite based on his emphatic 13½-length victory in the Florida Derby. The 110 Beyer speed figure he earned in that race is nine points higher than anyone else in the field. Fierceness did it on the front end that day, but is not a need-the-lead type. Look for jockey John Velazquez to have him positioned not too far behind the leaders. With the long run to the first turn, post 17 shouldn’t be an issue.

The price won’t be right, but anything close to his Florida Derby performance gives Pletcher his third Derby victory. And don’t worry about an off track. Fierceness broke his maiden with a 95 Beyer over a muddy Saratoga strip last summer.

Choose your favorites among these and step on those combinations if desired. Either Oaks horse with Fierceness will probably pay about $30 for $2. Honor Marie could return about $150.

Rush to the BetUS racebook and get down on this exciting opportunity!

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