A field of 20 superstar thoroughbreds contest the 147th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday.
Sorting out the form of every runner isn’t easy, so we have a runner-by-runner cheat sheet to make life easier.
The biggest horse racing event in North America deserves attention and it’s one of the more even betting fields in recent history. Essential Quality is the bookmakers’ elect, but there is incredible value throughout the field.
The Kentucky Derby will be televised by NBC. It will air from 12:30 to 2:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN and from 2:30 to 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Coverage is also available to stream live on NBCSports.com and on the NBC Sports app.
Kentucky Derby Analysis
1. Known Agenda
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Record: 6 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $541,700
Odds: +600
Known Agenda comes off a win in the Grade 1 Florida Derby and that form shouldn’t be overlooked. He was strong when beating the likes of Greatest Honour, who he made look second-rate.
It was only his third win from six career starts, but the son of Curlin has been well-backed to score and we wouldn’t leave him out of selection at the odds.
Projected finishing position: 5th
2. Like The King
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Record: 6 starts – 3 wins – 2 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $200,680
Odds: +5000
A relative unknown in this field, Like The King isn’t likely to figure in the finish. He comes off a win in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, which isn’t the best form guide.
He has yet to face anything close to this level of opposition and Kentucky Derby betting markets have him spot on at +5000.
Projected finishing position: 20th
3. Brooklyn Strong
Trainer: Daniel Velazquez
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Record: 5 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $225,000
Odds: +5000
Another runner who is expected to finish closer to the tail is Brooklyn Strong, who has slightly better form guides than Like The King.
He wasn’t too bad when running fifth in the Wood Memorial behind Bourbonic and that result followed consecutive wins.
His victory in the Grade 2 Remsen is noteworthy as it came over Known Agenda. Don’t completely overlook his ability.
Projected finishing position: 8th
4. Keepmeinmind
Trainer: Robertino Diodoro
Jockey: David Cohen
Record: 6 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $424,987
Odds: +5000
The +5000 chances keep coming with Keepmeinmind. He is a son of Laoban that scored a Grade 2 win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes before running down the track in harder races.
He was no match for Concert Tour in the Rebel Stakes before struggling to keep up behind Essential Quality in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Stranger things have happened in horse racing, but a win would be up there.
Projected finishing position: 14th
5. Sainthood
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Record: 3 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $30,633
Odds: +5000
We don’t want to completely dismiss a Kentucky Derby runner, but Sainthood would be close if we had a choice.
Despite being from the Todd Pletcher stable, we can’t have him in selections. He comes off a second placing behind Like The King, which isn’t the best form guide.
Two of trainer Todd Pletcher’s Derby horses, Sainthood and Known Agenda, working in tandem. pic.twitter.com/i5PCtB3PM9
— Pat Forde (@ByPatForde) April 23, 2021
His only win came in a low-graded race at Fair Grounds and he should struggle to keep up with the elite athletes in this field.
Projected finishing position: 18th
6. O Besos
Trainer: Greg Foley
Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza
Record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $34,525
Odds: +2000
For a runner that has only $34,525 in the bank, we’re surprised at the odds. O Besos has had five starts for two wins at Fair Grounds before subsequently running third in the Louisiana Derby.
That was a much better run than he showed in the Risen Star, but he would need to find a few lengths to turn the result in his favor.
Being by Kentucky Derby winner Orb is a positive, but we can’t entertain the +2000 odds.
Projected finishing position: 17th
7. Mandaloun
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Record: 5 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $361,252
Odds: +1500
Brad Cox lines up the son of Into Mischief who couldn’t come on in the Louisiana Derby. It was a disappointing finish for the Grade 2 Risen Star winner.
He is capable of producing a bounce-back performance at Churchill Downs – a track he has won at. Having winning experience on this surface is ideal, so add Mandaloun into multiples for the 147th Kentucky Derby.
Projected finishing position: 6th
8. Medina Spirit
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
Record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 3 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $315,200
Odds: +1500
Bob Baffert’s only runner is Medina Spirit, who isn’t without a winning hope. The son of Protonico isn’t your typical Baffert-trained Derby contender, but don’t rule him out.
His finish for second behind Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby is a lovely form guide and we think it’s the strongest qualifying race.
Prior to that he finished second behind Life Is Good in the San Felipe. Life Is Good would have been odds-on to win the Derby, but add Medina Spirit in selections for a top four finish.
Projected finishing position: 4th
9. Hot Rod Charlie
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Record: 7 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $1,005,700
Odds: +800
One of the best-backed runners in the field, Hot Rod Charlie has created plenty of attention.
The son of Oxbow has gone from strength-to-strength this season after winning the Louisiana Derby over Midnight Bourbon and O Besos.
It wasn’t the best field in the history of the event, but he kicked on nicely. It followed a third placing behind Medina Spirit and a second placing behind Essential Quality. Therefore, we’re not surprised at his shortening odds.
Put Hot Rod Charlie in the mix on an each-way basis.
Projected finishing position: 3rd
10. Midnight Bourbon
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Mike Smith
Record: 7 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 3 thirds
Career earnings: $461,420
Odds: +2000
The son of Tiznow isn’t the worst +2000 chance you’ll see. He has yet to miss a win or placing from seven starts and that includes a placing in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby.
Finishing second behind Hot Rod Charlie is solid form for the Kentucky Derby and the online racebook hasn’t firmed his odds as much as Hot Rod Charlie.
A win wouldn’t surprise and he could be worth a small wager.
Projected finishing position: 9th
11. Dynamic One
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Record: 5 starts – 1 win – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $194,120
Odds: +2000
We can’t make a strong case for Dynamic One and the +2000 is short of value.
The Pletcher-trained colt ran second behind Bourbonic in the Wood Memorial and although it’s a strong second placing, he wasn’t overly impressive in his action.
He isn’t an overly impressive colt and we would be surprised if he got the chocolates.
Projected finishing position: 15th
12. Helium
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Record: 3 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $297,763
Odds: +5000
Unbeaten Kentucky Derby runners always attract interest in the Kentucky Derby but this would be a turn-up.
His win in the Tampa Bay Derby wasn’t groundbreaking and that’s reflected in the betting market. Bookmakers are giving Helium little chance of winning and we agree.
This race might have come too soon for the Ironicus colt.
Projected finishing position: 16th
13. Hidden Stash
Trainer: Victoria Oliver
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Record: 7 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $231,062
Odds: +5000
Bettors get long odds for Hidden Stash and with good reason. He didn’t finish close enough in the Blue Grass Stakes to warrant attention and we can’t see him winning.
He does have a win at Churchill Downs to his credit, but it came in allowance company and this is some rise in class.
Projected finishing position: 10th
14. Essential Quality
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
Record: 5 starts – 5 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $2,265,144
Odds: +200
The star attraction to many is Essential Quality, who has yet to taste defeat from five career starts.
The Brad Cox-trained colt looked good winning the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, but we question the strength of that field. It didn’t feature many of the top contenders and we think bookmakers have inflated his line.
Essential Quality is the favorite to win Saturday’s 147th #KyDerby 🐴 #KyDerby Horse Profile 👉 https://t.co/QbwcVUh0sK pic.twitter.com/ZAJVkKZQaN
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 29, 2021
There have been some stellar +200 horses win the Derby in the last 10 years. We don’t think Essential Quality is one of them, but we wouldn’t be leaving him out of selections.
Projected finishing position: 2nd
15. Rock Your World
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Record: 3 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $546,600
Odds: +500
Rock Your World is our top pick for the 2021 Kentucky Derby and we’re hoping he lives up to his name.
The son of Candy Ride has won all three starts to date, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in March. He produced a fine turn-of-foot to beat Medina Spirit and Dream Shake, so we like the form lines.
John Sadler is a quality trainer and with Spendthrift securing breeding rights to the colt, they think he will come out ahead of the pack.
““We are really excited about Rock Your World and thankful to the Hronis family, Michael Talla, and John Sadler for allowing us to be a part of the horse’s promising future,” Ned Toffey, Spendthrift General Manager told Paulick Report. “Rock Your World has a wonderful combination of sheer talent, pedigree and sire power, and he’s an imposing physical specimen which you would expect from a $650,000 yearling.
“We were especially taken by the brilliance he displayed in the Santa Anita Derby in his first start on the dirt, and think he has a great shot to show that again in the Kentucky Derby and beyond.”
We like the look of Rock Your World and we’re happy to take the +500 odds.
Projected finishing position: 1st
16. King Fury
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Record: 6 starts – 3 wins – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $262,739
Odds: +2000
The son of Curlin has scored three quality wins, but we can’t see him winning the race. He won the Grade 3 Lexington at Keeneland last start, but the level of opposition wasn’t strong.
It would take a mammoth effort to win and we don’t think he’s up to it.
Projected finishing position: 19th
17. Highly Motivated
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Record: 5 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 1 third
Career earnings: $320,050
Odds: +1000
We liked the look of Highly Motivated prior to finishing second in the Blue Grass Stakes. He is still a nice type, but he might have lost some friends after the run.
Highly Motivated shouldn’t be ruled out of exotics, but he would need to lift on that effort. A first-four chance.
Projected finishing position: 7th
18. Super Stock
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Record: 8 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 2 thirds
Career earnings: $804,762
Odds: +3000
Super Stock has been specked at long odds as one of the most experienced horses in this field.
The son of Dialed In scored a win in the Arkansas Derby and there isn’t too much wrong with that form. He was strong to the line and if there is going to be a big upset, Super Stock could be the one.
Projected finishing position: 11th
19. Soup And Sandwich
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Record: 3 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $203,875
Odds: +3000
After winning his first two starts, Soup And Sandwich finished second in the Florida Derby behind Known Agenda.
It’s a solid form guide and he could be a runner that is overlooked in the market. He might not be the most attractive bet, but he has more upside than many in this field.
+3000 could be worth taking as a saver bet.
Projected finishing position: 12th
20. Bourbonic
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche
Record: 6 starts – 3 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $465,880
Odds: +3000
The Wood Memorial is often a good form guide for the Derby, but Bourbonic is unlikely to score consecutive upsets.
He paid a big price to win at Aqueduct and it was a tidy effort to reel in the field. However, this race won’t be run to suit and he could struggle to pick them up in the straight.
