Kentucky Derby Predictions, May 03: Journalist (+290) Best Bet

Daryl Curnow: Journalism Lead Story

I’m backing Journalism to win the Kentucky Derby, and he’s being anchored in exacta and trifecta bets. The impressive colt has the best form leading into the big race, and based on his profile, he should run out the distance strongly. I’m happy with the +290 Kentucky Derby odds, and although Derby favorites have a moderate recent record, he’s a genuine Triple Crown contender and it should start with a win at Churchill Downs.

My exacta has Sovereignty running second. Sovereignty’s post position is a worry, per Kentucky Derby news, but he’s likely to storm home. His last-start win is typically a good Kentucky Derby betting guide, and players should be confident of him running a big race.

I have four horses for my trifecta: Journalism, Sovereignty, Luxor Cafe and Burnham Square. Luxor Cafe is an unbeaten Japanese runner who could give Japan its first Kentucky Derby win. Burnham Square has been in the market from the outset, and although his form isn’t electric, he’s likely to grind out a top-four performance.

The Bets:

• $20 to win on No. 8
• $6 exacta 8-18
• $1 trifecta box 7-8-9-18

Journalism making a solid first appearance galloping at Churchill Downs. pic.twitter.com/ntlsG5uxuy

— Kevin Kerstein (@HorseRacingKK) April 23, 2025

Don Thompson: Lunch on Me at Luxor Cafe

Japanese-based horses are 0-for-8 in the Kentucky Derby, but Luxor Cafe could end the drought. Luxor Cafe is a generous +1100 at BetUS sportsbook despite winning his past four races, the last with an eye-catching turn of foot.

The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah should get a perfect trip behind the speed from post 7, and get the jump on the closers with his push-button acceleration. And here’s a horse racing news flash: The U.S.-based runners aren’t too fast, so we’ll take a swing at a part of history.

Journalism cannot be dismissed as the +300 favorite, so he will be included in my bets. Two longshots – Grande (+2000) and Final Gambit (+3000) – have top trainers in Todd Pletcher and Brad Cox, and are also part of my horse racing predictions.

The Bets:

• $26 to win on No. 7
• $2 exactas 7 with 3,8,10
• $2 exactas 3,8,10 with 7
• $1 trifectas 7 with 3,8,10 with 3,8,10
• $1 trifectas 3,8,10 with 7 with 3,8,10

Mark Pukalo: Journalism Will Not Be Trumped

Betting the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby is not something I enjoy. This year, though, I have a hard time looking away from +300 morning-line favorite Journalism in the horse racing odds. The son of Curlin showed a strong finishing kick to win the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby in California, and the ability he’s shown to stop and start is important in the Derby. He drew well in post No. 8.

We’ll put $20 on his nose to win and play $3 exactas with closer Final Gambit (3), Japanese standout Luxor Cafe (7), grinder Burnham Square (9), improving Grande (10), Publisher (13), Tiztastic (14), Sandman (17) and Sovereignty (18) underneath. Yes, Journalism-Publisher. We’ll also try $1 trifectas with speedy Rodriguez on top of Journalism with three horses for third and three horses on top of Journalism in exactas.

The Bets:

• $20 to win on No. 8
• $3 exactas 8 with 3,7,9,10,13,14,17,18
• $1 trifectas 4 with 8 with 13,17,18
• $1 exactas 7,13,17 with 8

Kentucky Derby How To Watch

• Race: 151st Kentucky Derby
• Date/Time: May 3, 6:57 p.m. ET (Race 12)
• Location: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.
• Kentucky Derby Live Stream: TVG
• Weather forecast: 66% chance of showers, 65 degrees

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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