A bit of magic may be needed to make a decent score with Mage in the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, but we’re ready to pull a rabbit out of our hat. The Kentucky Derby winner is expected to be the odds-on favorite in the Preakness Stakes odds to claim the second leg of the Triple Crown. Vertical wagers could return little with Mage on top, but value may appear in the horizontals.
Star of the Show: Mage
Mage will be a standout in Preakness Stakes betting for a number of reasons.
The Good Magic colt, trained by Gustavo Delgado Sr., earned a career-high 105 Beyer speed figure in winning the Kentucky Derby by one length at 15-1. First Mission, the presumed second choice in the Preakness, boasts a 98 and a 96. Mage also owns the fourth-highest with a 94.
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Watch the 2023 Kentucky Derby! pic.twitter.com/NmojWepHwh
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Mage is the only horse who has gone the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles, traveling an additional sixteenth in the Run for the Roses. No other Derby starters are running on Saturday.
Delgado’s biggest problem is figuring out how to get his champion out of the gate. Mage overcame a third straight slow start to come from third-last to mow down the field in his fourth career start at 15-1. With eight rivals in the Preakness – down from 17 in the Derby – he could probably deal with another tardy start in a race that appears to have enough speed to run down.
Mage is lightly raced, which could help with the quick two-week turnaround.
“Just because of the fact that he has only four starts, and usually (horses) tend to get better with races, especially after the third, fourth (starts), I think he has good momentum,” assistant trainer Gustavo Delgado Jr. told Bloodhorse. “That gives us confidence. …”
Now that Mage is in the books, let’s venture into the best way to make some money despite the Preakness lines not helping our cause in the value department.
How to Start the Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Double
Ten dollars nearly turned into $238 in the 2022 Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Double, but heavily favored Epicenter didn’t get the job done. We were on Cloud 9 after Interstatedaydream won the Black-Eyed Susan on Friday at 6-1, creating a $47.60 willpay with Epicenter.
The 4-5 choice, though, finished a non-threatening second the next day, dashing what we thought was a crafty way to cash a ticket with a “sure thing” when betting online. We’ll try the same strategy, but this time we have two price plays in the Black-Eyed Susan to pair with Mage.
Faiza, trained by Bob Baffert, is expected to be odds-on to win the Black-Eyed Susan on Friday. Faiza drew post nine, and could face a wide trip in her first race outside California. That could open the door for a couple middle-priced horses who drew inside to go by in the stretch.
Sacred Wish raced well in her first route try, and should get an excellent trip from the rail under John Velazquez. Sacred Wish, in the money in all three career starts, should relish the 1⅛-mile distance. She will likely be right around her 10-1 morning-line Preakness odds.
Merlazza tries to make it two straight Black-Eyed Susans for trainer Brad Cox. It appears that jockey Florent Geroux will be in a good stalking position, and shouldn’t lose much ground from the No. 4 post. Merlazza should be right around her 6-1 morning line.
- The play: 1,4 with 3 in the Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Double
Nice to see MERLAZZA (Medaglia d’Oro), entered in Friday’s GII Black-Eyed Susan S. @PimlicoRC pic.twitter.com/JztKFbfmaK
— TDN (@theTDN) May 16, 2023
Taking a Swing for the Horizontal Fences
Pimlico is offering a two-day all-stakes Pick 5 beginning with Friday’s Hilltop Stakes (Race 11, 4:30 p.m. ET). The Black-Eyed Susan is the second leg. The final three races are Saturday with the Jim McKay Turf Sprint (Race 10, 4:12) and the James W. Murphy Stakes (Race 12, 5:51) leading up to the Preakness (Race 13, 7:01). Here’s a modest ticket to play at the racebook:
The Hilltop is a wide-open affair at one mile on the turf, but we’ll narrow it down to two. Aunt Shirley (9-2) can take this field all the way with a clean break under Irad Ortiz Jr. The longshot inclusion is Hang the Moon (12-1), who could move forward after pairing up career Beyers.
The Jim McKay is a five-furlong free-for-all on the turf. Artemus Citylimits (5-2) is the likely favorite, and might be better suited sitting behind the dueling speed and pouncing in the stretch for Ortiz. Artemus Citylimits should be tighter in his second start off the layoff.
Nagirroc (9-5) and Funtastic Again (3-1) must be used in the Murphy, but we’ll be rooting harder for Circling the Drain (8-1) in his turf debut. Funtastic Again will be a pace factor in the one-mile turf race. The others are expected to come off the pace.
- The play: 2,7 with 1,4 with 3 wit A bit of magic may be needed to make money with Mage in the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, but we’re ready to pull a rabbit out of our hat.h 1,5,9 with 3 in the two-day all-stakes Pick 5
