Who Will Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? Bet Luxor Cafe (+1000) at Square Price

· Apr 10 - 4 minutes read

See why Luxor Cafe (+1000) is our Kentucky Derby betting pick
Favored Journalism (+425) is a threat to win and definite top-3 bet
Make bank with our 2025 Kentucky Derby! Join with our promo code HUDDLE125.

Japan-based horses haven’t shown much in the Kentucky Derby – until 2024. That’s when Forever Young came within two noses of becoming the first Japanese horse to win the Run for the Roses, finishing third.
Japan is 0-for-8 in the Derby, but Luxor Cafe could end the drought on the first Saturday in May. Luxor Cafe sits at +1000 in the Kentucky Derby odds. However, there are several runners who took the traditional American route that will certainly have a neigh in the matter.

Who Will Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? Bet Luxor Cafe (+1000) at Square Price — Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan | Al Bello/Getty Images/AFP

Get the latest odds for the Kentucky Derby here.

Luxor Cafe (+1000) Passes Eye Test for Bettors

Luxor Cafe was ultra-impressive winning the Hyacinth Stakes in February before his awesome turn of foot was on display in a runaway victory in the Fukuryu Stakes. The American Pharoah colt appears to have enough tactical gate speed to get a good stalking trip behind what is shaping up to be a contentious pace in the Kentucky Derby.

Luxor Cafe was flattered when fellow Japanese-based horse Admire Daytona punched his ticket to Kentucky by winning the UAE Derby. Luxor Cafe beat fourth-place Admire Daytona by two lengths in the Hyacinth Stakes. Forever Young went off at 7-1 last year, so getting Luxor Cafe at 10-1 in the horse racing odds could be a steal.

Bet on Luxor Cafe (+1000)

Betting Choice Journalism (+425) Heads Top Contenders

Kentucky Derby future bets list Journalism as the +425 favorite after his smashing victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Journalism, 4-for-5 lifetime, has defeated everything six-time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert has thrown at him, including Citizen Bull (+1200). Journalism’s 108 Beyer Speed Figure, earned on March 1 in the San Felipe Stakes, is a monster number.

Journalism figures to be about +200 at post time, which could be a bit short in a 20-horse field loaded with value. My horse racing predictions have Journalism as a must-use in exactas and trifectas, but some of you may find the +425 win price at the moment too good to pass up.

My top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions include Journalism finishing in the money.

Burnham Square (+1600) needed a top-three finish in the Blue Grass Stakes to earn a trip to Louisville. He was squeezed and bumped at the start, and settled at the back of the pack. Burnham Square methodically passed all his rivals in what was an impressive performance. With a clean break in the Kentucky Derby, Burnham Square will be much closer to the pace.

Tappan Street (+1200), facing a must-win or finish-second situation in the Florida Derby, prevailed in a good-looking effort. Tappan Street, like Journalism, should sit behind the expected contested pace in the Kentucky Derby and appears to have the turn of foot needed to challenge.

Keep a close eye on the Kentucky Derby news for any scratches, workouts or weather that could affect your handicapping for the 151st running.