Flash:
Welcome to the BetUS Soccer Channel. I’m Flash, it’s La Liga Show and it’s week 31.
Flash:
Barcelona continue to really, really impress. I mean, last week, again, Seville, two really good sides. Real Madrid, well, I think they’re just absolutely coasting, but there’s other positions up for grabs. Now, before we go into this La Liga card, and we’re going to go in depth because we feel as if there’s plenty of value right across the board. We are America’s favorite sportsbook, so we’d like to invite you to subscribe. Subscribe means that you’re going to get us closer to 5,000. Closing on 4,500, maybe we’ll do that in the next hour, or so. Also, ring the bell. Ring the bell means that you will not miss any content on any of our channels. Tomorrow will be Bundesliga, Monday will be Champions League Europa League, and then we go for it all again. And also, a little bit of a bonus next week with the FA Cup semifinals.
Flash:
If you are on social media, make sure that you follow @BetUS, Soccer picks. If Paco sees a lineup, and he likes a bet, he will put it on there. Pavlos, if he likes one, he will put it on there. So, you will get right up to kickoff if we find that there’s value and you need to know. Right, let me kick off with this week because it’s been a bit difficult, but we have flown. Let me have a little look at these records because Paco is with us today. And that means that there must be money in the coffers. That must mean that Roman has done such a good job. Look at that, Roman is now top dog at 7.15. So when the money’s there, on comes the wife, and the wife goes shopping. So, we are going to expect to see all sorts of prizes being thrown at this week.
Flash:
Pavlos’ done great, by the way. We’re at 10 units down, now at 4.63, but the big one for me, it’s a team game, it’s total 18 units of profit. Absolutely chuffed to bits with her. Your experts that are charged with guiding us all the way through this is from Greece and the master of numbers, stats, is Pavlos. And as we’ve said, from La Liga [inaudible 00:02:12], and Valencia, and he’s a telly star all across the world. I was watching some random sports show in South Africa and guess who pops up on my telly, and he’s smiling as well? It’s Paco. Paco, it was great to see you. And you know I had to send you the picture.
Paco:
Yeah, definitely. Hi, guys. And I’m so stoked to be with you, especially because this weekend is one of those challenging ones. We have been trying to find the value here and there, nitpicking, cherry picking to trying to find where is the value. And in order to help our viewers and, obviously, you know that I try to do the Lord’s work over here, and wherever. Anyone is crazy enough to call me, so I’m super happy to be with you guys today.
Flash:
Yeah, that’s good. Pavlos, you’ve got to be over the moon with the… I’ve used over the moon three times in this show already. You have got to be so happy with going from 10 units down to now nearly five units up.
Pavlos:
Yeah, yeah. I think I told it in a show about December. I told you guys I’m going to finish this with a plus 10, plus 15 or something; I’m going to turn this around. And we did because we have a great group of people and we always run by some place in between the Tweeters, we talk about plays, we talk about players missing, we talk about ThirtyThree news, so I think we got a great group of people here and we just keep on bringing the value.
Flash:
We do. I wouldn’t go as far as saying, “Great people.” Here, just that there’s only one of us. Okay, remember these Spanish sides are in Europa League action and Champions League action, so they’ve got more than one eye on the greater good because we know that Real Madrid are absolutely flown the nest, but there is other prizes up for grabs. So remember, there’s a Q&A at the end that will be before the best bets, so if you’ve got anything you want to say, get yourselves in the chat. We’re not normally very chatty in La Liga, normally the boys cover every single angle, but I will give you the opportunity to give us a question or two, and we will definitely have the answer, so you can relax.
Flash:
Let’s kick off with the first game because the first game is Sevilla versus Granada. Sevilla, impressive last week in defeat against Barcelona. -250, that’s not getting you rich; -150, that’s not getting you rich either. Granada at +850 struggled last week at home to Rayo Vallecano. Then Rayo Vallecano go down to 10 men. Granada, 95th minute, equalizer for 2-2. Killed me, but don’t worry, I’ll get my revenge on them this week. I can’t see the draw Roman’s getting involved, so let’s go with the total of over 2.5 at +110; the under is at -130. I’ll come to you first, Pavlos. What are your numbers saying? Because I’ve got Sevilla winning this comfortably and after what I saw of Granada last week, I’m not even interested in Granada’s scoring at -130 for Granada not to score, but it’s +100 for them to score. No chance.
Pavlos:
Yeah. I believe that they’ll have a very tough time scoring this rock solid Sevilla defense. We’ve praised them all season long. They still have the best defense in the La Liga with 20 goals conceded, second best home defense with 11 conceded, third best XGA with 1.26. The problem is that their XGA at home have dipped a lot. They now have the 11th worst XGA at home, but still, they manage to keep filling seats, they manage to keep the matches very tight. And this Granada side they’ve had scoring troubles all season. 7th worst offense with 33 goals, 5th worse away-offense with just 14 goals. Their XGA numbers are not very good. And they actually beat Sevilla by 1-0 at home in the reverse picture, but they did score an early goal and they were pretty much dominated in the second half, but they did get the win.
Pavlos:
Granada, they are showing signs of life lately with 4 points in the last two matches. But the thing is that they came back in both matches, scoring late goals, so I just don’t see a lot of goals. I mean, Sevilla at home and 7-7 to the over 2.5 goals, but that number shoots up to 11-3 to the over 1.5 goals, and there’s a reason why I choose the 1.5 goals. And Granada on the road, they are 6 and 9 to the over 2.5 goals, but that number shoots up to 11, and 4 to the over 1.5 goals. So, I’m scared of Granada somehow scoring here. I just have to say it, but hopefully not. So, I think we’ll see a game where Sevilla win and there’s at least 2 goals.
Flash:
Yeah. I mean, the 2-0 will only give you, if you go with Sevilla -150. Paco, I know that you don’t even entertain minuses, but if you go with Granada not to score and Sevilla to win, so basically Sevilla win to nil. And I know that’s a little bit risky because I did it midweek in the Champions League as well; one mistake from Liverpool/ Benfica score. Otherwise, Liverpool win to nil and my week is completely different, but Sevilla win to nil is a +100. Do you see Granada scoring?
Paco:
Well, the fact is that if you leave aside the game against Barcelona last week, Sevilla had been unbeaten since November, since the last days of November. And in that impressive run of games, almost half of them saw how Sevilla kept a clean sheet. And I believe that has been the key for them. The fact that they are so consistent at the back, even though they haven’t excelled at scoring, actually. I can’t remember, actually. Look at the stats, but the last time Sevilla scored more than 2 goals in a game, it was against Levante back in March day 10. So it’s been almost the full season without Sevilla being able to score more than 2 goals in a La Liga game. So that’s why, even though I believe that Granada are in a very, very tight spot, especially after sacking, a few weeks ago, their manager Robert Moreno, they are facing the battle for relegation.
Paco:
I just see Sevilla very consistent. Especially at home and the proverbial lowest effort possible, like 1-0, call it a day. I think that Sevilla have excelled precisely at that this season. So that’s why in this case, I was trying to look at the value. I know that you went for this game, Flash, but I actually can’t remember if I decided doing something because I thought that yeah, Sevilla will probably win the game, easily win the game, but I don’t think it’s going to be a fancy score line. And that’s why, [crosstalk 00:08:37]
Flash:
You actually sent me Sevilla and over 7.5 goals.
Paco:
Definitely. Yeah, I think I messed up with the 7.
Flash:
Sevilla and over 2.5. Are you thinking that it’s Sevilla and under 2.5, or over 2.5?
Paco:
Yeah.
Flash:
You think 3-0.
Paco:
Yeah, because it’s just they don’t go for it, and that has been a problem because when they needed to go for it, they didn’t know how to. That’s why this season, whenever they had a game under control, 1-0, they just decided to stop there and do not increase their effort because of the challenges of the season, of the competition they had to face, the champions the Copa del Rey, also later the Europa League. But ultimately it didn’t work for them, but at this point Sevilla scoring more than 2 goals in a game? It’s tough, even though Granada are very, very wonky at the back.
Flash:
Okay. So what are you saying, then? Sevilla and under 2.5?
Paco:
Yeah. I could go for that.
Flash:
Okay. I need to know the price of that then. Pavlos, if you can have a look in a minute, I’ll get the official picks up. I see Sevilla winning this 2-0 at +100. Ignore Paco’s, even though he sent it to me at the middle of the night, Sevilla and over 2.5 at +140. I mean, I’m thinking probably Sevilla and under 2.5 is probably if that’s 140, I’m expecting it to probably be -110, maybe +100, but Sevilla and over 1.5 at +130. We’re all on the 2-0. That’s what it is, we’re all on the 2-0. As long as Granada don’t score, I think we’re going to be home and host. In fact, I will get that for you; when the next clip is shown of the next game, I will have a price of Sevilla and under 2.5, Okay?
Flash:
So let’s bring up the second one, please. Second one is Villareal versus Athletic Club. Now Villareal, very impressed midweek. Dodgy as you like last week, though, away at Levante getting beat 2-0, not raising a gallop. What are we going to get from them this week against an athletic Barbosa who don’t really score goals, either? I cannot believe, first of all, that they’re, I’m not even going to give you the money lines at the moment, I’m going to give you the totals, under 2.5 at -110. It’s like, come on now, who’s going to be bothered in this game? And Villareal have got to go to buy-in next week and Athletic Club don’t score goals. Villareal +110. They might win 1-0, they might draw 0-0, they might lose 1-0. Athletic Club, +270 draw is at plus +245, which I think is a runner. Paco, Villareal/Athletic Club. Please tell me you don’t expect 3 goals in this game, neither.
Paco:
You know, the fact is that Villareal are not reliable this season in La Liga, even though I think they are going to have the spirit in them to fight till the end for European places. I think that you could, everyone could see what happened last weekend, that they were just 100% focusing the game against Bayern Munich and that’s why they got beating away from home against Levante. Levante do not beat anyone, so could see that Villareal-
Flash:
Yeah, it was on Villareal last week, okay?
Paco:
Yeah, except Villareal, obviously. But yeah, Villareal was just thinking about next game and I believe this weekend is going to happen exactly the same. They’re going to have their mind in that match up against the Bayern Munich, especially as it’s away from home, they got a 1-0 advantage hard earned yesterday at the Estadio de la Ceramica, and that’s why I try to keep myself away from this game; too unpredictable. Athletic Club, after getting knocked out of the semi-final in Copa del Rey, I think they have lowered their performance, they’re just coasting on it. They have European sports far away from them, so I don’t really see the motivation. I think they’re going to end mid-table this season overall. Yeah, possibly a draw because both teams are just not feeling like it in this game.
Flash:
Okay. And I know that we’ve got a different clip here. In fact, I’ll give you the price at the end. Obviously, Paco was asking me to get a price for the Sevilla and under 2.5 in our previous clip. I will give it to you at the end and you are going to be absolutely shocked. Pavlos, Villareal/Athletic Club, “…” Under 1.5?
Pavlos:
Quite possibly. Actually, they both have the 3rd best defense in the La Liga with just 29 conceded goals. Villareal have the 4th best home difference with 14 conceded goals. Bilbao have the 2nd best away defense with 13 conceded goals. Bilbao also have the 2nd worst away offense with just 10 goals and don’t score a lot. So I mean, I’m surprised, actually, by the price in the under 2.5 goals. I also like to draw, I told you right before the show that the draw was actually one play that I considered, but I chickened out this week. I’ve been doing really good. Yeah, yeah. Exactly. All my three plays were chicken plays. I admit that, but I’ve been doing a good job in the last month or so, or couple of months and I want to raise my units in this show.
Pavlos:
So yeah, Bilbao, actually, they beat Villareal by 2-1 in the reverse fixer, but that was the first match with over 2.5 goals after 5 consecutive unders. Bilbao have also been quite good as visitors in this venue. They have lost just 1 of their last 6, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, and 3 draws in their last 6 trips to this venue. And of course, they can take advantage of Villareal’s massive, massive win over Bayern Munich, and the fact that they have the second leg of that match on Tuesday, I believe. So, if I had to take anything here, I’d go with a draw. But yeah, this looks like a 1-1, 0-0, something like that. There’s there’s not a lot of calls here.
Flash:
No, I wouldn’t put anyone off of Athletic Club, double chance at the -130, neither. Wholesale changes I expect for Villareal is probably one of the biggest games. And listen, they’ve been contenders in Europe and they’re obviously the current Europa League champions. But I just see that their game against Bayern is just going to be off the charts. So, I’ve got this just basically under 2.5 goals. Let’s have a little look at the official pick, because I know that I’m on my own, but under 2.5 at -110, I don’t see 3 goals, I see it maybe draw at halftime, as well.
Flash:
Let’s move on to game # 3 because we’re talking of Champions League. Well, no one was more impressive this week than Real Madrid and they host Getafe. Real Madrid at -260 to win by 2 clear goals is -155, it’s halfway at +850 might well make that +1250, if you wanted a draw come across +375. The under/over at 2.5 with the under at -115. Pavlos, what are your number saying? Because Real Madrid, brilliant midweek from every man, 1 to 14, but Getafe going to town. Is this a potential banana skin?
Pavlos:
Well, Getafe, they don’t have what it takes to score against Real Madrid here. I mean, they have the worst away offense with just 8 goals in 15 matches. They’re the only winless team on the road. They have 8 losses and 7 draws. They’re kind of in a good shape right now and stable. I should say they’ve lost just 1 over the last 6, and just 3 of their last 13 matches is, actually, dating back to December with 5 wins and losses, and five draws. However, really pulled for them on the road, they have the worst away offense, the 4 worst overall offense. However, they do have good defensive numbers. They have the fourth best defense overall in the La Liga and the 6 best away defense. So I wouldn’t be surprised by a low scoring match after all, or Real Madrid. They’re with one foot in the Champions League semifinals, but there’s still that second leg to be played at home against Chelsea.
Pavlos:
I don’t really see a very big upset there, but they still have that match to play, and prior to last night’s win over Chelsea, Real Madrid have played 8 midweek Championship matches. So, in the weekend matches right after that, they have 7 wins and a loss, all 7 wins came with the combination of over 1.5 goals, and six of those came with over 2.5 goals. And there is a lot of 2-1s there. I think 5 of them were 2-1 wins, and the other one was a 2-1 loss. So, they love the 2-1 right after their Champions League match.
Pavlos:
And Getafe are quite tough off the back. They actually kept a realm of it scoreless in the last two matches and Real Madrid, again, they do have to play this Champions League match next week, so all things considered, this one of my chicken plays as well. I am taking a relatively safe option of Real Madrid to win and just the over 1.5. I mean, the over 2.5 is also a good way to play this, but I’m just a bit scared maybe of a 2-0 win.
Flash:
What about the under 3.5, or the under 4.5?
Pavlos:
Yeah, but-
Flash:
No value?
Pavlos:
No, no, no, no.
Flash:
Okay. I thought it was a bit too easy. Paco, Real Madrid/ Getafe. Real Madrid, did they get it done? Just coast? And what about the wholesale changes in this game as well?
Paco:
Well, the fact is I also cowered away from this game, like Pavlos has turned into play-it-safe Pavlos, I’m turning into play-it-safe Paco on my own because I tend to go on a gut-feeling in these kind of games. Whenever Real Madrid or Barcelona are involved, I almost never look into the stats; I always look into the forms of the teams. Real Madrid at this point, even though their top priority, because already they have La Liga inside their pockets, I believe that they’re going to put all the cards in the deck towards the Champions League.
Paco:
But against Getafe, remember that Getafe beat them in the first leg of the competition with Quique Sanchez Flores, who had been only for a few weeks at the helm. And I believe that Quique exactly as a former Real Madrid player, he was a manager in Real Madrid Academy, he knows, top to bottom, how they work. And also, I believe he’s a very good tactician in the way he dissects and analyzes. And remember that Getafe, even with their impressive run, when Quique came in, they were bottom of the league with only 1 single point. So, they’re 32 points now they need 1 or 2 more wins in order to be safe. And maybe, imagine the possibilities if Getafe are able to beat Real Madrid, save themselves 35 points, and explode the whole competition solidly in one [crosstalk 00:19:02]
Flash:
Paco, surely if Getafe are going stay up, it’s going to be their home field.
Paco:
Or not, because they haven’t been brilliant at home, or away from home.
Flash:
Probably brilliant in a way. That’s why they might not stay up.
Paco:
That’s that’s the issue, that’s the issue. I believe that their main weapon at this point is trying to be solid at the back. And if suddenly we had a game very similar to the one we had in the first half of the competition, with Real Madrid having 10 chances, 10 shots and targets, and being unable to score after the rowdiness they showed against Chelsea, I don’t know. I stayed clear from this game, but I’m just trying to putting some flavor into the discussion because everyone is going with Real Madrid. And after, as Pavlos said, after a Champions League game, yes, they usually win. But yes, their form is not the same because they will be thinking about Chelsea. Even though the 1-3 score is a very high advantage for them, you cannot rule out Chelsea and they must prepare themselves for the battle.
Flash:
Yeah, especially after what Chelsea did to them last year. I mean, listen-
Paco:
Yeah, exactly. Exactly.
Flash:
… Chelsea could easily go there and win 2-0, or even return the favor 3-1. They’re going to have to be a million times better than they were last night, but it is an option, and it is a possibility. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, though, because Pavlos is the only one, and he’s gone. Real Madrid an over 1.5 at -150, looks like a 2-0 [inaudible 00:20:23] Maybe even a 2-1 if Getafe do score. I mean, you’re getting something like, +225 Getafe just to score a goal. Not for me, not getting involved. Real Madrid needs to just do what they do and go and lift the Champions League if Chelsea don’t.
Flash:
Okay, let’s move on to game # 4 of 6. Remember to get yourselves in the chat if you’ve got something you want to mention, because this is a game all about goals and I cannot believe you’re getting +125 over 2.5, it’s Espanyol versus Celta Vigo. Espanyol, +175. Not sure I’d go near the money line because the away side are also at +179, the draw at +225. I just keep coming back to it, over 2.5 goals for +225. Pavlos, go first. This is goals, surely.
Pavlos:
Well, yes, but-
Flash:
Well that means no, you don’t believe. You’re not a believer.
Pavlos:
I am, and I am not with this Celta Vigo side, you can never know. I mean, we talk about this in every show, you expect them to score 3, they lose to, I don’t know, Alaves. Yeah, so I don’t know. And especially with Espanyol having that absence of Raul de Tomas. I was searching the team news, so far he’s questionably the best, so if he’s out I still think they have a pretty solid attacking trio with the other guys, but missing your crown jewel just really hurts your goal scoring opportunities. But, for what it’s worth, Espanyol, they do have the 7th best offense with 35 goals, really good at home, again, with 22 goals at home, 7th best home offense. They don’t have a very good defense, they have the 6th worse defense overall, 42% of goals. Weirdly enough, they have the 6th best home defense with 16 conceded, so they’re a bit careful at home.
Pavlos:
They’re 5 and 2 in both things to score in the last 7, they kept clean seats against Mallorca. They get tough, and if they played any better opposition, they probably wouldn’t have. So yeah, the absence of Raul de Tomas was more than obvious in their loss to Sociedad, and he’s still questionable. So, I’m not so sure about their goal-scoring opportunities, but their return at home is always something positive where they’ve been quite solid, actually, over the season and I felt that they kind of have a solid defense. They have the 5th best overall difference with 34% of goals. They have the second best away defense with 13% of goals. And they rank dead last in both into score on the road with just 3 and 11.
Pavlos:
So, they are coming off a very upsetting loss to Real Madrid with what they considered the 3 penalty kicks, throw in Santi Mina’s recent legal issues. So, there is a big fat no-no for me. Looking at this match, look at some stats, but then I said, “No.” So, good luck with whatever you pick within that match. For what it’s worth, one last stat, both teams to score is 8 and 2 in the last 10 between the two sides, but just 3 and 2 in the last five in this venue.
Flash:
Yeah, 8 and 2, both teams to score. So, one of them’s got to get a second just to get over the 2.5. The over 2.5 is at +125. I’d quite like both teams to score under/over here, Paco.
Paco:
Yeah, possibly. This particular case, I was trying to look into the value side of things because I had a hunch that there was something hidden in this game. Because both of them, and I just began looking first at the way the standings are at this point, they are 10 points clear away from relegation zone, they are going to be unable to reach European spots and they have fluctuated the whole season with the highs and lows, winning a couple of games, then losing. Espanyol have been unable to win games away from their own turf, but they are playing at home.
Paco:
Celta are, as Pavlos says, unpredictable, even though they have those problems with Santi Mina, always, you can obviously trust Iago Aspas to do something magic, but overall, I think it’s going to be crucial if Raul de Tomas is on top of the pitch, or not. He’s having problems issues with his shoulder, and that’s why, at this point, he’s in serious thought towards the game. But if we look into the actual stats, and into the actual picks, I had to go with the random pick of the weekend because it was too juicy to let it go. Okay, so going for both teams to score and Espanyol win, because they’re just felt horrible away from home, and Espanyol are also horrible away from home. Someone has to win, okay. So, both these two score, and Espanyol winning the game. I don’t know. The reward is so juicy that I had to go for it, really.
Pavlos:
Yeah, you don’t have to explain yourself. Actually, I saw the price was amazing. And I totally see this one, like a 3-1, 2-1, 3-2 easily. But it’s my personal belief that I don’t want to get involved in, and felt as much as I just hate this team decision, I just hate them.
Flash:
I just want Roman to know that I have nothing to do with this, Roman. Honestly, I have nothing to do with it. After this past one, Levante, a +550. What is this one, Paco?
Paco:
My last argument in favor of this is that they are at this point, just mid-tier sites, mid-table, nothing to win, nothing to lose, so that’s when defenses go out of the window. Those game where you don’t really have nothing on the line. And that’s why we’re facing a few games of this type in the last string of matches remaining, in the last eight came remaining. So, looking into everything I said, “Why not?” Why not, for example, a 2-1 win for Espanyol both teams to score, Espanyol win. Boom, there you go. I wouldn’t see it’s so random to happen. It could definitely happen.
Flash:
Okay, could definitely happen. Let’s have a little look at the official pick, and give me a +500. He loves it. Roman’s there I’m like, “Whoa.” I tell you what, I quite like the +500. If he gets it right, he could do some proper damage. Okay, so listen, don’t say that we are square on La Liga but there again, that’s why we’re +18 units of profit because we are anything but square. Espanyol to win, and both teams to score +500, from Paco the great.
Flash:
Okay, let’s move on. Let’s move on to game #5 because I’m beating this team up because they killed me last week and anytime I’ve wanted them to do all right, they’ve done bad. It’s Levante who are still right down there, they are still fighting for their lives, and at home, okay. But they’re +600 against Barcelona, probably one of the form teams, maybe the top four teams in the whole of Europe at the moment. And Barcelona are -230, that’s not going to get you rich. -1.5, win by 2, +115. You’ve got to also remember that Barcelona are in quarter final action of the Europa League. Draw is at +400 under/over 3 goals. Yeah, I can see 3, I can see a push, maybe at -130. But for me, Paco, I’m going with Barcelona just because of the way they start, the pace in which they attack, and how quickly they get the ball in the box. They’ve got 5, or 6, 7 different goal scorers. Levante, once they get behind, they throw caution to the wind and then I think they go further behind. Barcelona to lead early, for me.
Paco:
Actually, I enjoy doing this quite a lot because it’s my usual task every single weekend. And I can update at this point in the 20th minute of the first half, Eintracht against Barcelona, no goals. Okay? So, that’s not great for Barcelona, but I think that they will eventually get there. And regarding the game against Levante next Sunday, especially with their mindsets on this Eintracht Frankfurt matchup, which I believe at the beginning, Barcelona believed that the Europa league could be a minor trophy, but as rounds progress, I think they are going for it, going to try to win the Europa League because for once, and for starters, it’s one competition, one-
Flash:
So, I’ve got them a +800 pack up.
Paco:
Definitely. And it’s one trophy they don’t have in their cabinet. And that’s why they’re trying to try to, in the first few months of Xavi taking over, being in charge in the sidelines, they are going to go for it 100%. So, regarding this game against Levante, the main issue with Levante is that yes, they could be very well condemned already. Everyone perceives them as the team who are already down, but they beat Atletico de Madrid when nobody believed they would be able to do so. They beat Villareal, the tighter, the more desperate, the more impossible the task is, suddenly Levante comes around and surprises everyone. Even though I think in the duel between these two [inaudible 00:29:23] teams, I think that Barcelona have the upper hand and I feel bad for Levante because they have an fiery schedule ahead. And that’s why I think they’re not going to be able to get salvation. Their schedule, remaining schedule is bonkers. They’re facing everyone at the top places. So, against Barcelona, they’re going in for a rowdy night. I don’t expect a greatness from Levante, I do from Barcelona.
Flash:
Yeah. Pavlos, I think this is all about the mentality of the manager of the visitors. It’s Barcelona, we are Barcelona, the players must be aware that they play for one of the biggest football clubs in the world, and every game is important. And this one, just because it happens to be in the middle of two really important quarter finals ties in the Europa League, they’ve got to go out and win this because, remember, Champions League as a consolation if they do not go and win the Europa League.
Pavlos:
Yeah, true. I believe that Coach Xavi has probably instilled his experience that he gained as a player into matches exactly like this, where you’re in the quarter finals of a major competition, but you have a match on the road against one of the weakest teams in the La Liga. So, some teams are very careless about that and we often see opposites, but this Barcelona side has been really, really stable since Xavi took cover. I mean, they needed that stability. They were rocking and rolling the entire first half, or first third of the season, but now they’ve been really, really stable and their numbers have stabilized. They their 2nd best or best in literally every statistical category. And Levante are on the other side of things, worst defense, second, worst home defense. They did show signs of life lately.
Pavlos:
They lost this tour, the last 7. And they had 11 points in the first 23 matches of the season, but they have got just as many in the last 7 matches. But still, 19th in the league, 22 points, 6 points below the red line. They have the 2nd fewest points at home, they have 16 points at home overall, but they did grab 10 of those within their last 6 matches. Another worrisome thing just because I like to look at every possible angle, this has not been a very welcoming venue for Barcelona in recent years. They have won just 1 of the last 5 matches here. Yeah, 3 losses, one draw, Levante, and beaten the last 3 home matches against Barcelona. 4r of those matches have both teams who scored and over 2.5 goals with Levante scoring 3, 3, 2, and 5 goals in a spectacular 5-4 win back in 2018.
Paco:
I was there, I was there. One of the most amazing games I’ve seen, ever. That 5-4 win, and remember 2018, Levante were fighting for relegation back in the day. It was when Paco Lopez came and took over and they got a run, I believe 8 wins out to the last 12 games, I don’t know, it was amazing. But yeah, Barcelona in the last 5, 6 seasons have had a rough time playing against Levante since they came back from Segunda in 2017. So, I think we should also take that, as Pavlos said, into consideration.
Pavlos:
Yeah. So, with Levante holding on for dear life and Barcelona in between their Europa League matches, if you have a play in this match, I wish you the best. I just feel safer staying the hell away from that.
Flash:
Okay. I’ve gone for Barcelona to be leading at halftime 1-0, and I’ve just gone Barcelona halftime, full time. I think that’s the way they get the job done. Maybe 1-0, maybe 2-1. Exactly. Let’s have a little look at the official pick. So impressive, Barcelona. I’ve not seen, Barcelona get the ball in the box, get as many bodies in the box as I have done in the last say the, 8, 10 weeks. And I’m really wishing Xavi well, because he’s turned it around and all of a sudden everyone is love watching Barcelona apart from Real Madrid fans. Barcelona halftime, full time at plus money. Yep, sign me up. I’m happy to ride that Barcelona train right away to the end of the season.
Flash:
Now the last game is a team that just scared the life at me last week. Reya Vallecano versus Valencia. Reya Vallecano, +132 nil out early on. Last week away at Granada went down to 10 men and only caved in the 96th minute. Valencia, well, who knows what goes on with them because one week they’ll be cruising and winning 2, 3-0, 3-1, then all of a sudden they throw in a couple of 0-0s and they’re at plus +235. It’s +230 for the draw, Paco. You know all about this side, when you trust them is when they’re going to let you down. But are they not a value of over +200 to win, or Vallecano, who up until last week, they looked like they we’re on the beach.
Paco:
Yeah, because Reya are, you could say almost safe. They only need 1 win, 2 games possibly to just be 100% safe. But the issue with Valencia, and that’s the main problem in the last couple of months is that since they move on the Copa del Ray final at the beginning of March, I believe that for them, the season is just pending in that single game. Remember that for Valencia, if they win the Copa del Rey against Real Betis, it means winning [inaudible 00:34:34] for starters and later getting that ticket for Europa League next season. So overall, it would be a rousing success for Jose Bordalas and his team, but if they lose that game, it’s utter failure, it’s going to be fire and hell over here, and we’re going to have plenty of interesting things to talk about in this summer. Okay. So, that’s why Valencia are just so not to be trusted, lately.
Paco:
But, you can trust them in one thing. Is that they are going to be proficiently defending for their lives because they have, I believe, only considered 1 goal in the last 6 games. Mamardashvili under the sticks has been very impressive lately after he just became, once again, the starter for the team. So, I think they are just focusing in getting their defense in tiptop shape. They’re playing with five at the back, just trying to get the build up against that Copa del Rey final against Betis, because it’s going to be a showdown, a clash of styles. And that’s why Bordalas is just trying and fiddling with little things in La Liga because those are going to be just put into effect in the Copa del Rey final.
Flash:
Is it fair to aim at the Valencia players that they are just doing enough to tick themselves over?
Paco:
Yes. I would say that the main definition in this case, is that they are 100% focused in the Copa del Rey final, and that the main issue is trying to not get injured, trying to be physically fit, and trying to not concede goals. So, that’s why Valencia has been lately awful in the attacking sense, awful. The last few games, I have the unfortunate luck of having to broadcast all of the games and we’ve seen great games, we’ve seen mediocre games, and we’ve seen awful games. And out of the last 5, 3, 4 of them have been awful, awful. Against God, it was absolutely awful.
Flash:
Last week was horrendous.
Paco:
Horrendous. So, no chances, no shots on target, nothing. And that’s the Bordalas champagne football, as I like to define it, okay? And we can expect plenty of that from now until the end of the season.
Flash:
Wow. Pavlos, have you got any value in this game?
Pavlos:
Yeah, yeah. Of course. When I saw the +35 on Valencia, I’m online, I was rubbing my eyes, I thought that I’m missing something. So, I dug a little deeper and I came to the conclusion that, Paco just mentioned, they’re probably not going to make it to the top 6, and they don’t even have to if they win the Copa del Rey. But again, as Paco said, if they lose that Copa del Rey, it’s going to be catastrophic for this Valencia side who didn’t have much luck decision, especially in the defense. They had a lot of injuries. I don’t think all the starting defense has played a lot of matches together, like, actually everyone being on the pitch together because they had a lot of injuries, but now most of them are back. And I told you guys about a month ago, right before they went on this good streak, that Valencia’s difference is going to be better because they still have the 5th worst defense, but they conceded just one goal in the last 5 and they still have the fifth worst defense.
Pavlos:
Which goes to show that how worse their difference was back in the day. And so, all this, whatever number I have written down the XGs, the XGAs, especially the defensive numbers. You can take those and throw them out the window because the Valencia that we’ve seen the past month or so, has been totally different. And 5 clean seats in the last 6, of course it was against easy oppositions like Cadiz, and Elche, and Getafe, but the difference looks much, much better these days and combined with Reya’s solid defense. I just don’t see a lot of goals here, but I’m interested in Valencia not to lose. I mean Reya, of course, as Paco said, they need a couple more points to feel safe, but Valencia are not a team that will drop the towel. So, I believe this is a double chance for Valencia, so I paired it up with some kind of under to get that extra bit of value.
Flash:
What did you go for? Let’s have a little look at the official pick. I think we’ve spoken long enough about this boring game. Valencia double chance, and under 4.5 at -130, and draw full time at +230. Listen, you’re both happy with that, especially even if it’s a 0-0, 1-1, or even 2-2. So listen, I think everyone thinks that this could well and in a draw.
Flash:
Okay, that’s the six games. We will have a Q&A, just fire away anything, but I mean, we’ve covered most of things, but let me take you back to the beginning and encourage you to subscribe if you haven’t, because it is a World Cup year. And if you do subscribe, then also we need you to ring the bell. Ring the bell means that you’ll never miss any content. And we cover the four major leagues, the Champions League, and the Europa league, and obviously we’re going to be doing World Cup in Qatar come November. So, make that your home of soccer betting. And if you’re on social media, make sure you follow @BetUS soccer, because if there’s any late updates, if there’s anything you should know that’s going to give you an edge, we will inform you.
Flash:
Okay, questions? No, no questions. Okay, because I cannot wait to tell you that I fall, let’s go back to the official picks, the best bets, stick them up. Best bets Sevilla and under 2.5, not over, don’t worry graphics people, it weren’t your fault, it was Paco. Paco was sending me these when it was at four o’clock in the morning and he had match sticks in his eyes. Sevilla and under 2.5 is +185. So, Paco as normal, +185, +500 +230. Sevilla are now over 1.5, is at -130. So now, the 2-0 is going to absolutely clean up for us. And by the way, there is banker as well. Villareal Athletic Club, under 2.5 goals at -110, cue the 0-0, maybe even just the 1-0. Paco, it’s great to see you back. Are you commentating over the weekend?
Paco:
Yeah, actually I have a couple of basketball games Levante/Barcelona, obviously, next Sunday night. And I have an incredible Monday, beginning of the weekend because we have the last game of this match day between Reya and Valencia, which will be a dozer. I think I’m going to try to have a couple of pills in order to stay awake because the game is going to be very, very boring.
Flash:
Okay. And we’re going to see you soon on the Europa League show?
Paco:
Yeah, definitely. I believe in a couple of days, yeah.
Flash:
Oh, well next Tuesday. That’ll be great. I’m looking forward to that. Pavlos, keep up the great work mate from a -10 to +4, everyone at La Liga we’re at +18, we want to get over that 20 again. From everyone in the chat. From BetUS, may all your bets be winners. Barcelona, halftime, full time. Good luck. You take care.
