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La Liga Picks Matchday 33 | La Liga Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

La Liga Picks Matchday 33

Flash:

Welcome to the BetUS Soccer Channel and I’m Flash and it’s La Liga Show is in matchday 33. We’ve got all sorts going on at the moment. We’ve got teams that we think we can trust, and they’ll let you down. They’ve got teams that are starting to think that they can even survive and they’re scoring goals at it as well. But first of all, we’re America’s favorite sportsbook. We would like to invite you to subscribe and get us closer to 5,000. And also we’d like you to ring the bell. And that means we’ll notify you and never miss any content. Again, if you’re on social media, especially Twitter, then please follow @BetUS soccer. And we’ll try and keep you up to date right up to kickoff, if there’s any changes, last minute picks, or even if we don’t even like something. So make sure you follow @BetUS soccer.

Flash:

We’re going to have records. We’re going to have seven games, seven games. There’s no La Liga action over the weekend. It’s all going to be midweek. So please sit back and enjoy. Get yourselves in the chat. We’ve got Pavlos, who’s going great guns from 10 units down to over seven units up. And it’s good to have a Roman back because Paco, he was just trying to spend his money and for once, he actually got away with murder. So I don’t think he’d done too much damage. Let’s have a little look at the records of La Liga before I introduced my guests. There we go. Look at that, 21.7 units. That’s very healthy and it’s balanced as well. Only parlay not done his job, but we’ve only called upon him four times. While you are in the chat, please put your thumbs up to show a little bit of appreciation. Let’s have a little up. Pavlos, it was a strange weekend, but we seem to have come out unscathed yet European results right across the four major league were very, very dicey.

Pavlos:

Yeah, but we’ve been finding the value for, I think it was the entire season. Couple of plays have been off, but we can always expect that to happen. But I think we’re doing a pretty great job. I mean, really, I think we’re doing a fine job in predicting those, especially now we’re in the most crucial part of the season where teams are fighting to avoid relegation, teams are fighting to reach Europe, teams are fighting to remain at the top four. There’s a lot of stuff going on and we are here to break down for you guys. So we’re doing the hard work, the hard digging. So you don’t have to worry about anything, just sit back, relax, and just let us handle everything.

Flash:

Yeah. Pavlos has got sore eyes, by the way. He’s not doing impression of the Blues Brothers or he is not playing his fancy dress or anything. He has got sore eyes. So we are allowing him to wear sunglasses. So don’t get any ideas Roman, it’s not normal attire to wear sunglasses. Roman, welcome back. You had a couple of shows off and Paco, obviously, ably deputized for you, but it’s good to have you back. I change of side I wanted you talk about, is Levante. They’re starting to score goals. Have they got a realistic chance of staying up now?

Roman:

I mean, they definitely do. Maybe you’d ask me four or five matches ago, I would’ve said that they were done. But I mean, they’re still fighting. They still believe they have an opportunity. Even with that they defeat against Barcelona by 3-2. I mean, they were pretty good there. They had three penalties in their favor. They could have honestly won that game. Barca were also quite lucky to get a good result in the end, but then despite losing that, because it was really harsh losing to that late goal from Luuk de Jong, that could have really send their morale downwards, but they managed to pick themselves back up again and got another really good result this weekend.

Roman:

So three points, which are so, so important and with a very comfortable result and then margin, I think gives them a favor. In case they have the same points as Granada at the end of the season, I think Levante would be on the upside because of the four goals they scored. So I mean, great job from them and if they can keep up this level, they definitely have a chance, although it’s not going to be easy. Tough games, Sevilla, for example, we know they lost against Madrid the other day, but still they’re not going to want to drop any more points because Sevilla are also still fighting to consolidate themselves at staying in Champions League positions for next season.

Flash:

Okay. Well, listen, we’ve got seven games. We’re obviously going to do the Q and A, even though we’re probably going to cover every single angle, but we’ll have the best Soccer picks at the end. Q and A will be prior to that. So let’s kick straight off. I’ve got a parlay going on as well in this, but it will be my individual parlay, not for the team, is Mallorca versus Alaves, Mallorca +120, Alaves +255. The under over there’s a shock that it’s at two -130 for the over. So I don’t know, they’re on the cusp of going for two and a half, but the draw is at +2.25. Pavlos, how do you see this game? Roma… Sorry, Roma, they’ve got Roma on my brain. Mallorca versus Alaves.

Pavlos:

Yeah. Well this is a battle of other relegation. Mallorca are now 17th with 29 points, just one point above the red line. Alaves siting dead last with 25 points, four points below the red line. So it’s going to be really interesting because there are now five teams who are… we don’t know who’s going to go down. So they’re all going to fight. And now this match between Mallorca and Alaves is what we call a six pointer in the sense that whoever wins not only takes three points for themselves, but they also deprive one of their main competitors for the relegation off three points. So I expect a very passionate match. Maybe we’ll see quite a few goals here, even though Mallorca and Alaves, not so good offensively, of course Mallorca have the third worst offense, third worst home offense, but they also have the third worst defense.

Pavlos:

And Alaves whenever you look at them are bottom four in every statistical category, they’re just really, really bad. So yeah, Alaves, they have a tough schedule coming up and they really want the points. Actually, both need the points, but I’m expecting Mallorca to not lose here. I was actually torn between picking some kind of over with some kind of under, I went with some combination of some things that you will see, but I believe that Mallorca are going to score first here. Possibly Alaves with the backs against the wall. So they need to score. They can’t stay in the division unless the score goal. I mean, even if it’s a goalless draw, one point is not taking them anywhere. So at some point they have to go out and attack. And their attack hasn’t been very good. Maybe they’ll score one. But I expect Mallorca, I think they’re the better side of the two. And playing at home ground is truly going to be a boost. So I’m looking towards Mallorca here, at least not to lose.

Flash:

Okay. Mallorca not to lose. Then obviously you’re going to have to partner that up. So Roman, Mallorca, this is where they’ve got to gather their points at home, but Alaves, they are a banana skin, aren’t they? Because they’re one of them sides that when you think you’re going to pick up points against them, they do dig in.

Roman:

Yeah. Just ask Rayo Vallecano, last weekend who thought they were going to go for a draw, in the end, they just ended up losing to Alaves. And honestly, Mallorca just so unpredictable this season, even with a new manager, seemed like they were getting some confidence. They had really good result against Atletico Madrid. It kind of felt like they were going to build up from this and that they were going to get a good result against Elche in the end, but they got battered three nil. Their goalkeeper made some very poor mistakes. And honestly, I just don’t know. I was tempted to go to, for both teams to score in this game because I mean, both teams really need the goals, but at the same time, I was looking at the results from the past, from both teams. And it’s always been like a one nil or something like that. It is common that only one team score. So then of course I was put off a bit by that bet.

Roman:

So in the end, I wasn’t too confident and decided to let it go because I can’t really trust Mallorca even though it is at home. And as you said, that’s where they should get the points. If you want to go for offside, probably, it makes more sense going for Mallorca, but for me, both sides are a bit risky and I don’t really know which way it’s going to go.

Flash:

Okay. Then let’s have a little look at the official pick because Mallorca Alaves, it’s one of those where you could probably be there all day and come up with 10 different picks. It’s Mallorca double chance, and over one and a half at the -120. So worst case scenario, we’re looking at Mallorca 1-1, or the Mallorca just win two nil. I think Mallorca have got to throw caution to the wind. And if they have, got to get back to their old ways of making sure they win on home soil.

Flash:

Okay. Game number two is just simplicity personified as no messing about, it’s just Betis versus Elche. Betis at -185. I was tempted by the -1, minus 105. But again, then I just thought, listen, I’m going for a parlay. This is my parlay piece. Against Elche +525. The draw is at +325. Under over two and half. Well, you would expect over two and a half up -120, Roman. The way Betis play, this Elche are perfect for them. But I just got to bring in the one nil so that I just didn’t want the free hit. So I went just with parlay number one, Betis win.

Roman:

Yeah. I mean, I think Betis should win at the end of the day. I think since they got eliminated from Europa League, they’ve kind of meant to find their form again, they’ve been getting decent results and let’s not forget they’re still fighting for those top four spots here. They’re in the mix, even though they’re suddenly a bit behind those teams. I mean, they still have a good opportunity and Pellegrini was going to definitely want to fight it right until the end.

Roman:

The only thing that worries me is that the midweek game, Pellegrini did say that there were definitely going to be rotations because he already know that his team has been suffering from all those competitions they’ve been competing in, making it to the final of the Copa del Rey, Europa as I said before, La Liga, they were competing really fiercely up until now. So just a worry in the sense that he might make too many rotations, take too many risks because there’s another game then on the weekend.

Roman:

But overall, I think that Pellegrini should be capable of leading his men here to another victory. Elche were good against Mallorca, but away from home. Despite needing the points, I think it’s going to be very difficult for them to beat Betis. And I honestly don’t expect too many goals. I think Betis will get it done, but with a low scoring result, I think maybe two nil, one nil, 2-1, something like that.

Flash:

And that’s why I had to go with the moneyline, because I was worried about the one nil, just because of Betis making sure that they just control the game, Pavlos. And also Betis is like -155 to score twice. I mean, they’re telling me that Betis are definitely going to be scoring twice on the numbers, but I just feel. Okay. Let’s find two together, stick them and then come up with something around the +135 mark.

Pavlos:

Yeah, I could definitely see Betis scoring twice. Elche, they don’t have that good defense. I mean, they have the fourth worst XG, third worst XG on the road. On the road in general, they haven’t been all that good. They have three wins, 10 losses and three draws. They have one of the bottom five, I think this is the fifth. Yeah, the fifth worst away defense so the only thing that worries me is the fact that Betis are playing the cup final in just a few days. But we’ve been discussing about Betis for quite a while now. If they somehow lose that cup final, and they lose a couple of more games in the La Liga.

Pavlos:

They’re in danger of missing out on everything next season. So that’s going to be a huge shame for Betis. So I think this is one of their easiest match to finish the season. So getting a win might not be very easy and we might sweat it out. But I think that Betis have the better chances to not get upset here because this is a matchday where I really predict a lot upsets. And this just… it wasn’t one of them. I think Betis are going to win.

Flash:

Yeah. Betis man to man are better. He’s going to make his rotations, fair enough. Maybe he does that after an hour. But listen, you’ve got to be winning your home games against Elche because you take your eye off the prize thinking you could possibly get a prize at the weekend, you could cannot come up with absolutely nothing. Official picks please, because you’ll see that with mine, it is going to be a P, official picks will be great. Okay. There it is. Betis moneyline and that’s going in my two leg parlay. And you haven’t got to wait too long for me to give you the second leg because onto game number three of seven, that we’re going to show you.

Flash:

And this should be an absolute shoe and it’s Villareal versus Valencia. Villareal -220, Valencia +600. Now Villareal were -190 when I did the parlay, and that was less than three or four hours ago. So the money’s really pouring in and why? Because Valencia are involved in the Copa del Rey over the weekend and they’re not expecting to have any players whatsoever. So, I mean, I wouldn’t even see Valencia scoring if they’re going to play like a really weakened side. And if you don’t fancy, look at that, +110 for Valencia not to score. Valencia are +600. I expect that to go up. Under total, under or over is at two and a half, obviously, because we only expect maybe one team to score. Roman, you know these, both of these sides, but Valencia making wholesale changes looks like Villareal shoeing.

Roman:

Yeah. I mean that’s what you’d think because Villareal did pretty well last weekend. Valencia got a poor result. They haven’t been playing great and of course they had to think about the Copa del Rey. So of course like Pellegrini in this case, Bordalas is also going to do pretty much a similar thing with lots of rotations. We all know very how important the Copa del Rey is for these teams. So they’re going to want to give it their 100% there, but I mean, I still don’t think they’re going to give it away completely because in the end it is a local Valencian derby between both sides. We talked last time, I remember, before the previous game between both sides, that usually it was a game with both team scoring with over 2.5 in total. But in the end it was a Valencia a two nil win. I do Think Villareal are going to get their payback this time, even though they did lose Gererd Moreno again, he keeps getting injured.

Roman:

It’s another muscle injury, doesn’t seem to be the same thing. So he is going to miss out maybe a couple of games and they say he might be back for the second round against Liverpool. Let’s see fingers crossed because he’s crucial for Villareal and we saw it last weekend. But despite that, I think Villareal do still have enough to win this game. Although, I wouldn’t discard that Valencia to at least score a goal because I mean, it’s one of those games where you give an extra push or at least the players are going to be on the field, they’re going to want to show they’re worthy and maybe even get a spot in the final against Betis. I do think overall that Villareal should win, but I hope it’s an entertaining one here.

Flash:

Okay. Pavlos, Villareal win, but how do they win and how do we get the value? Cannot believe it was -190, less than two hours ago and now it’s -220.

Pavlos:

Yeah. I’ve played this much over and over in my mind. I thought moneyline, I’ve had -1, maybe Villareal to win and under three and a half goals, but then I said, Hmm, Valencia are going to rotate and what I’ve seen from their backup, defenders this season wasn’t really encouraging. So I wouldn’t rule out a Villareal five nil win or something. [crosstalk 00:15:27]

Flash:

Five nil. You’re sounding like Paco.

Pavlos:

They can blow up anytime. Villareal in my mind are kind of like Dortmund where you do see a lot of… If you look at Dortmund recent matches, you see a lot of unders there, couple of wins by two to nil, one to nil, something like that. But then boom, they destroyed Wolfsburg over the weekend. So I think Villareal are due for a massive game. Of course, they’ll have one eye in the Champions League semifinals, but again, this is a similar situation with Betis. If Villareal, if they don’t win the Champions League and they have a couple of bad results, they’re in risk of not playing European soccer at all next season. So they really need the points here. Of course, they have a huge match coming up in, I think it’s eight or nine days, but they have to focus on here.

Pavlos:

And if they can’t beat a Valencia side with both eyes on the Copa del Rey final, maybe they shouldn’t play. No, it was a bold statement. I retract that. They should play every year in the Europe because we’ve seen what they do. And I mean, they’re very impressive. And it’s probably cause of Unai Emery. I think that Valencia, they’re already behind the top six spots, 13 points behind. It’s going to take a miracle for Valencia to lose the cup final and also play European soccer. So they’re going to put everything they have on the cup final. And they’re probably not even going to care that much about this result. So I feel that Villareal are the team with the biggest motive here. That’s why I like Villareal with -1 actually, and the price keeps dropping. So if anyone also likes that bet, you should hurry up because the price is going to drop a bit more, I guess.

Roman:

Can I add one more thing?

Flash:

-135, I’m just looking to see, to give me a rough idea. It was like -105 this. This is move 30% against you if you haven’t got it already. And this is always the news that obviously Valencia are not going to be playing their full shrimp squad and Villareal’s got to win every game. It’s as simple as that. And they’ve got a nice big break after this game, before they go back into the European exploit.

Roman:

Just wanted to add.

Pavlos:

Roman wants to say something.

Roman:

Yeah. Just wanted to add that we were talking about this with Pavlos the other day that if Betis win the Copa del Rey, then there’s a opportunity to the seventh qualifier in La Liga does get to play European football. And Valencia is only five points away from that seventh position. So if they lose that’s also another way they’re interested to maybe get that spot. So I don’t think they’re going to give it away completely and just leave it at one card, but of course, it does make sense that they’re going to focus more on the Copa del Rey, but just saying to keep that in mind.

Flash:

Yeah. All the numbers tell you that it’s Villareal all the way. Otherwise, I don’t expect many people to be having Valencia on a +600. It’s going to only be going up. But some a little look at the official picks because this was the second leg of my parlay. I went Betis and I went Villareal, don’t complicate it. But you’ve got Villareal -1 at -135 when that was -1, -105 has a big, big… listen, I wouldn’t bother going -1 if it could start getting into the -140 in there. I’d probably then just do team total of Villareal over one and a half or over two, something like that. Okay. Let’s move on to game number four, because this is one of those on paper. You’ve got to find the value and the value won’t be far. You won’t be looking too long. It’s Atletico versus Granada.

Flash:

Well, Atletico at -130 is no good. Atletico to win by two, you can trust him at +100. Granada are +1000, but Granada not to score in the game is -130, which tells you that Atletico to win two nil is going to be around +100, Roman. I’d like Atletico win two nil, Granada don’t score. But Granada -130 or against Atletico two-winner, -330. Put them together, you get +100.

Roman:

Yeah. I think Atletico should the end of the day win this game. They got a really tight win last weekend. Right at the end thanks to a penalty. They were pretty lucky to be honest, they haven’t been too good of late, despite that game against City, where in the second half they played really well. They look like a really strong side, but they don’t tend to play at that level we could say on a weekly basis in La Liga, unfortunately for them. And that’s why they’re struggling to stay in those top four spots. And also to add to that, they’ve having little luck we could say, with injuries because now they’ve lost Joao Felix and Lemar. They’re saying it could be for the rest of the season and we’ll see how those updates go, but it’s not looking good for those two.

Roman:

And then also they have suspensions with Felipe, with Kondogbia and Gimenez, who’s still injured. So that depth that Atletico bench usually had might not be available for this game, but still, they still have a pretty good 11. They should be capable of lining up to win the match. But the only doubt for me here is that Granada have already announced recently just a few hours ago, a new manager, Aito Karanka. Some of you might know from the Premier League, Birmingham, Middlesbrough et cetera. He’s going to manage his first club as a first manager we could say here in La Liga. And he’s going to try and of course motivate these guys to at least get a draw.

Roman:

And we saw that, for example, Mallorca, they got a good result against Atletico Madrid. Recently, Espanyol were about to get a result against them. So they’re vulnerable. Atletico are vulnerable. You can get points and despite playing at home and seeing how these late games have been going for Atletico, really struggling in that sense, I’ve decided to stay away. But I do understand that you’d want to go maybe for Atletico, because playing at home against the Granada who got thrashed the other day should be a reason enough, we could say.

Flash:

Yeah, I see that Granada are not going to be going on all guns blazing because the one thing you don’t want to do you is open up against Atletico unless you are chasing the game. And listen, even if it’s one nil, I think, Atletico to win an under three and a half or Atletico win two nil, Pavlos.

Pavlos:

Will the real Atletico Madrid defense, please stand up. I mean, I’m tired of the defense this season. What is [inaudible 00:21:47] doing? Okay. It’s natural to concede against Espanyol, of course, but what are they doing? I’m confused about their defense. And Granada, they found ways to score against Atletico Madrid in recent years. I think they’ve only failed scoring in one of their last five. To be honest, this is one of the matches where I looked and then I I just skipped. I said Atletico Granada, two seconds of thought. And then I just skipped it. Because I genuinely see Granada scoring to be honest, but hopefully they don’t because Atletico Madrid, their luck is going to run out at some. And if Granada take the lead here, Atletico Madrid might not even win.

Pavlos:

They’ve had a lot of late, late match winners, like in eighth minutes of stoppage time, ninth minute of stoppage time, seventh minute of stoppage time. So they can’t keep doing that. If they can, it’s fine, but it’s not healthy for us betters and it’s not healthy for the team and it’s not healthy for the coach or the players. So unless I see something from that Atletico Madrid defense, I’m kind of staying away. And with Granada being on a do or die situation, this was a match where I would either pick the underdog or nothing at all. So I thought it was safer for me to pick nothing at all, but Atletico Madrid should at some point shape up their defense. If they have a couple of bad results, they might even play in the Conference League next season.

Pavlos:

So they should be really careful and they don’t need to score four goals. Of course, they can’t score for goals against Granada, but you don’t need to score. Score just one, stay at the back, one nil, two nil, and it’s done. You don’t need to be flashy. Now it’s the point of this season where you need to be effective. So they need to shape up their defense sooner or later. And if they can’t shape their defense up against Granada, then I’m sorry. I don’t know what’s going to happen. So big fat pass for me, but good luck if you have a play in this match.

Flash:

Yep. I do have a play as has been alluding to its Atletico win two nil. Well, let’s have a little look at the official picks because I was going to stick this in the parlay as [Jojo’s 00:24:00] like, “Why don’t you stick it in the parlay?” Well, because I thought it was good enough on its own. Atletico win two nil +100, if this wins and basically I have my parlay for free. That’s what I was thinking or have my parlay, I have this for free. So it’s basically just adding units to our winning record and trying to get this close to [inaudible 00:24:18] before we get to the end of the season. Okay. Game number five, because this was another game I had a potential parlay piece. Celta at +120, Getafe at +270, the draw at +220. Celta to score twice at +255. Getafe not to score is +140. The under over is two. The Celta do score goal Getafe have done. So are we looking at, Roman, over two at -110?

Roman:

I think over two is pretty tempting. I do think we’re going to see goals the other day, Celta Virgo against Athletic Club managed to score a couple there, a very tough stadium to win and to even score at. So a lot of credit for them for getting a good result. And I think that could build up some momentum for Celta Virgo, who are having irregular results. But I feel like at home against Getafe who kind of lost all that momentum they’ve had, because we were talking about them few weeks or months ago or something like that when they had those really good results. They would look pretty good. You could bet on them. You could trust them with a recently new manager. But now since then, they lost a bit of all that momentum. Now they’re struggling to get the good results.

Roman:

And they’re again, fighting in those relegation positions, uncomfortable, not playing the football they like, or not being capable of at least implementing it. So I think Celta have a good opportunity of getting a comfortable win against Celta Virgo. And I wouldn’t discard over two goals, to be honest.

Flash:

I think Pavlos, the numbers should say to us, but this is a two and a half game, not a two. Celta could score maybe two on their own. And that brings in the +155.

Pavlos:

Yeah. But here’s the thing, Celta could score no goals because they are one of the teams that we call Dr. Jekyll and Ms. Hyde. You see one face here and one face there. Sometimes they go and beat the teams that you don’t expect them to beat. And then they lose from the teams that you would never expect them to lose. And you know what, to be honest completely, I hate whoever one of you guys chose this much because I can’t be dealing with freaking Celta all season. They’ve been really hard to predict. I think they won just back to back matches just thrice all season. So now they beat Bilbao on the road by two to nil. Who would’ve thought? Insane results from this Celta side.

Pavlos:

And Getafe of course, they are the only winless team on the road, worse away offense with eight goals in 16 matches. They score half a gold per match. But they do have a good defense though. They have the seventh best defense in the entire La Liga, Getafe, they have the seventh best away defense with the just 22 conceded. They have the ninth best XGA and the eighth best XGA on the road. So to be totally honest with you guys, I wouldn’t be surprised if somehow Getafe found their first win of the season against this Celta side. I’m disgusted by the Celta side.

Flash:

I get it, but I’m disgusted by the Getafe prize being at +270. They’ve got one away from home or that tells you a little bit, so they’re running a little bit scared. I thought they’d be like +550.

Pavlos:

True. True. True. So I initially thought Getafe plus half a goal here. No questions asked, but then I saw the numbers and -140 for Getafe. I don’t really like it. So the value is certainly on Celta to win +120, of course, but something inside me tells me that this not an easy match.

Flash:

Okay. Roman, Celta versus Getafe, what have you come up with?

Roman:

[inaudible 00:28:02] Well, I went for moneyline basically as see shortly. I think what I said before, I think Celta could build up on that momentum against Athletic Club and they should be capable of getting a win because at home, Iago Aspas in good form, I think it’s enough to beat a Getafe hoop. As Pavlos has mentioned having won away and they really struggle. They could get their first win. It could be one of those unpredictable Celta moment, but I’m going to take the risk.

Flash:

Okay. Celta, moneyline +120 for Roman. Good to have him back. He has been doing absolutely brilliant, as has Pavlos as well. Okay. Let’s go on to game number six of seven and this just screams goals, Levante versus Sevilla. Levante +250, Sevilla at +110 could be a trap because Levante have been scoring… Listen, they’ve scored like three, four times in the last six weeks. And doesn’t mean they’re going to win the game. Total over two and a half goals in the game +100. Surely that is an absolute shoe in. Draw +255. How am I seeing Levante Roman, at +250 at home to Sevilla, who to be fair, although I say goals, they do not like to get involved in matches with loads of goals when they’re on the road.

Roman:

Well, that’s a good question. Honestly, Levante, as we said before, at the beginning of the show they’re starting to find some kind of momentum, some kind of confidence in their football, maybe in their manager in the way they’re playing. And of course, most importantly, Levante have found Morales. He’s back to his best. He’s playing some of his best football all season. He’s really struggled during most part of the season with injuries, not performing to his level, but now he looks once again, like one of those top players who could be playing for a Manchester City, for a Barcelona, for I don’t know who, because when Morales is Morales, he’s just an incredible player. And with him on the field at that level, honestly, anything can actually happen. Although it is Sevilla, Sevilla is a rocky side. We know that their defense tends very good because we saw the other day against Real Madrid how in the second half, it completely broke down.

Roman:

But of course, it is Real Madrid, it is Karim Benzema, it is Vinicius. These guys do have a lot of quality. And when they start pushing, we know that they can get the results they need. We saw it against Chelsea very recently. So I don’t think we can compare the rival Sevilla had the other day with Levante, we could say. So I do think it’s a bit of an unpredictable game because knowing that Levante are desperate, knowing that they couldn’t fight against strong sides, we saw against Barcelona the other day, anything could really happen, but logic says that Sevilla should at least get a draw at the worst case scenario we all know, but I don’t know if they’re going to feel affected by that recent game at their home stadium against Madrid, where they had the game under control.

Roman:

The first half, they were brilliant. It seemed like the game was done over and over with. But then the second half of that classic Madrid, which pushes right until the end just manages to change things completely. But as I said, we could see goals. Goals does make sense, because as you mentioned, Levante tend to put them at the back of the net. And I do think Sevilla are definitely going to be capable of scoring in this one, but I wouldn’t be brave enough to go for any side just yet.

Flash:

No, I get that Roman. And that’s the problem I’ve got Pavlos, is that I’m not brave enough because Levante should be triple the price normally, but under the current form of scoring goals, they’re 30% of the price we think they should be. Sevilla are not scoring goal, so that brings in the draw. Otherwise, the +110 is the biggest wrapped gift we’ve ever seen. But for some reason I cannot go near it Pavlos, not on the moneyline anyway.

Pavlos:

Yeah. No, no, no, no, no. If they win, if Sevilla wins, well, okay. If somebody plays the moneyline, I wouldn’t blame them, but here’s the thing, Sevilla, they’re winless in the last nine on the road, four losses, five draws. They kept just two clean seats in that span. So their defense is starting to some… I’m not going to say fall apart because it’s a huge word, but something’s wrong with their defense, especially on the road. But Levante have been really, really good late, good. Their offense has been good because they’ve scored eight goals in the last three matches. They scored multiple goals against Barcelona, Villareal, Betis, Valencia, Atletico. They score three goals against Sevilla in Sevilla, in the reverse fixture and they also scored three goals against Madrid, so they’re fighters. Their defense is not so much, but there are fighters upfront and they’ve scored in five of the last six home matches against the Sevilla.

Pavlos:

Both teams to score is five and one in their last six matches is here. The problem is though, because I’m actually looking at the over half a goal for Levante is -220, but the over one and a half goal is at +200. And that’s one of the plays that I actually considered for this match because Levante is scoring a lot of goals. They scored a lot of goals against Sevilla, they scored goals against the big teams. And the problem is that I scrap that because only Betis and Real Madrid have scored multiple goals against Sevilla on the road this season. But then again, I thought Sevilla have conceded multiple goals in the last two against Real Madrid and Granada, and they get just one clean sheet in the last six, regardless of venue. And they have just one way in the last six. They’ve kept just three clean sheets in the last 12 matches. They have four wins, four draws and four losses.

Pavlos:

So I totally see a high scoring match here in the sense that Levante might even score first and Sevilla are going to come back or even if Sevilla score first Levante will certainly at one point because as it is right now, they are sitting… wait, because I have a lot of tabs open here. They’re sitting at the 19th spot, four points below the red line. So they don’t have a lot of luck left. They don’t have a lot of matches left in this season. After that they’re going to play Valencia, after that, they’re going to play Real Sociedad, after that they’re going to play Real Madrid. So these are all tough matches.

Pavlos:

So Levante should better get points whenever they come. And Sevilla kind of struggling lately, just kind of struggling lately, of course, they still have the best defense and the best away defense, but I think this is a trap, a very big trap. So I’m going to take the over here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Levante score thrice. I like the bottom score here. A lot of stuff I like in this much, but I’m going to stick with the over.

Flash:

The over is plus money. The over two and a half, what do they have? They had seven or eight goals between them less than a month ago. It’s like, listen, it could be a 2-2, it could be a 3-2, but the over two and a half, you only need to be 2-2 or even a three nil win if Sevilla really do turn up-

Pavlos:

True.

Flash:

… then Levante let you down just when you think that they’re goal machines and they’re going to score every time they go forward. Over two and a half goals is that don’t complicate it really at +100. It’s one of those that you’re forced to take just on the value alone, because Levante have been scoring over than that on their own and Sevilla has now starting to be thinking, okay, we’ve now got to press on the advantage of being in the top four.

Flash:

Let’s go for game number seven. And I left this alone and you know that I love my Barcelona, but for some reason, this game is absolutely stunk. Real Sociedad versus Barcelona, Sociedad are +240, -130 for double chance. Barcelona +110. Now just imagine Barcelona at the same price to win at Sociedad has Sevilla at Levante. Sorry, not quite right there because Sociedad are one of the most dangerous sides in Spanish football. And they’re so organized as well. The under two and a half goals is at plus money. Barcelona to score twice are at -105. There’s so much on this menu. I’m looking at it like I’ve got a starter, I’ve got a main course, I’ve got a dessert. I’ve even got my coffee, a mint for afterwards. Roman, I could have maybe six or seven bets in this game.

Roman:

Yeah. Maybe that’s why I couldn’t make up my mind. Maybe too many things to choose and generating doubts whether it was going to go one way or another way. And also of course that game against Frankfurt is kind of [crosstalk 00:36:12] Yeah, kind of. Yeah. We could say that to be honest. I don’t think nobody expected of course, Barcelona to get eliminated and even less in that way, in that manner, by that goal line, which was a bit tricky in the end. Anyway, of course we scored those two late goals, which changed things a bit or made them look a bit better. But now of course, it’ll be interesting to see what Barca does against Cadiz, because as we are recording, they’re playing at the moment, it’s nil-nil in the first half. They’re still struggling to get that goal. And I think that the result could also affect the version of Barcelona we seek in Real Sociedad and Real Sociedad who are very, very strong at home of late. They’re getting good results. They lose very few games at home. Their defensive line is really very solid.

Roman:

So that’s a doubt whether it could be an under’s game or whether Barca somehow is going to play their offensive wonder football we’ve seen. We saw the Bernabeu, for example, where they thrust in four nil, and then of course it’s going to be overs. So in that sense, I had too many doubts I’d say, and I decided to let go of this game and not take any risk because I don’t know what version of Barca we’re going to see. Because I do think Barca can win it if they go back to the level we’d seen a few weeks ago, but if they are going to play their Frankfurt level, I’m a bit scared of them.

Flash:

Yeah. Again, and Real Sociedad are the type of side that could hurt them to be honest. Pavlos, there’s so many attractive numbers. If you’re a Sociedad fan, you are licking your lips thinking you’re being underestimated here. But if you’re a Barcelona fan and you expect them to bounce back, because listen, they have been excellent. Maybe 85% of the time over the last three months, then you have got some proper numbers. Just Barcelona to score twice is at -105. Barcelona +110 to go there and win, is the draw or under +270.

Pavlos:

Yeah, I agree guys. There is a lot of place to be made here. I think the side is the most difficult to predict. I think goals are easier to predict because whenever this two meet, they somehow they blow the games up. Barcelona in the previous round, in the first round, they beat them by four to two. Last season, they beat them six to one, two to one. So in the last 10 La Liga matches, eight of them were overs, over two and a half goals and eight of them had both teams to score. And I also say that even though they have impressive defensive numbers, impressive, especially at home, I was looking at the halftime numbers actually, because Real Sociedad really have to beat at home, nine wins, two loses, five draws. But in first half, they scored four goals and have conceded just one goal all season in the first halves at home.

Pavlos:

So here’s what I’m thinking. They have three home matches left to finish the season, against Barcelona, Cadiz and Atletico Madrid. There is no way, I guarantee you, there is no way they’re going to finish this season with just one conceded goal in the first half. No way. Maybe they’re going to keep Cadiz at bay. Maybe they can keep Atletico at bay, who Atletico by the way, I look at the stats, they have scored just one first half goal in the last six matches against Real Sociedad at Real Sociedad. And that’s why I’m thinking that Barcelona will score here in the first half. After all, they’ve scored the most first half goals on the road this season with 12 and they’ll be eager to wash off that terrible loss to Frankfurt in the Europa League on Thursday. I think they’re going to enter the pitch looking to just move over to a new leaf, a new page.

Pavlos:

So Barcelona in a triple tie against Sevilla and Atletico Madrid at 60 points. Of course, they do have a couple of matches in hand, so they used to have the upper hand, but the way I look at this, there is much, much value in taking Barcelona to score in the first half. After all, they’ve done that in four of the last five months in this venue. Of course, that’s back when they had Messi, but still, and they’ve scored two first half goals in the reverse picture in the 4-2 win at Barcelona early in the season. The only problem that I have with this bet is the fact that Barcelona haven’t scored any first half goals in their last four matches, but I expect that to change and the price is very good. So I’m willing to take the risk.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s have a little, have a look because as I say, if you are a Barcelona fan, and this is a big question mark over them, how do they bounce back? Obviously, they got absolutely toasted, forget the 3-2. If they were beatean four or 5-1, listen, there would’ve been a travesty and it would’ve made them still look better than they were on the night. But it’s Barca, first half team total over 0.5 at -110. So basically just Barcelona to score a goal at -110 does look like a good shot, but I think these two it’s going to be very, very tight. Now if you’ve got any questions after them, seven games, then fire them across now, because I’m just going to remind you, we’re America’s favorite sports book and would like you to subscribe and get us closer to 5,000 subscribers.

Flash:

Remember we’ve got La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Premier League, Champions League, and Europa League. And this is your World Cup year. So this is your home of soccer betting. And that we’re going to really, really enjoy this. Also, ring the bell and that means you’ll not miss any content, which will then… That means that if you’re a La Liga fan, you will not hear the bell ring this week because it’s Copa del Rey, there’s no show on Thursday. And if you’re on social media, then please follow @BetUS soccer. Any updates, anything that we think is going to benefit you, even if it doesn’t benefit you, at least we were thinking of you. Okay. Any questions? Let’s have a little look. Don’t normally have questions to be fair in La Liga, which we don’t mind, because I know that they ask questions the way through.

Pavlos:

Maybe we do such a good job that we cover everything. So we don’t have [crosstalk 00:41:57]

Flash:

Yeah, you can give yourself a pat on the back with them glasses. I’m not letting you get away with it. I think you’re just looking for like a… I don’t know what I was going to say to you. Did you send a video the other day of when you were at the brewery?

Pavlos:

Yeah, I did.

Flash:

Does that why the glasses are on?

Pavlos:

No. No. Look at my hand, I haven’t been at the brewery since that day. So it’s fine. Nothing.

Flash:

Oh, the boys look good, man.

Pavlos:

Yeah, I know. It was just a weird flex because I’m now king of the La Liga.

Flash:

Yes, exactly. [crosstalk 00:42:27]

Pavlos:

Look at those faces.

Flash:

How long will you stay there? As long as we keep Paco away? [crosstalk 00:42:29]

Roman:

Paco [crosstalk 00:42:33]

Pavlos:

True. I believe it.

Flash:

Okay. Listen, let’s have a little look at the best bets, please. We’ve not added any. There’s no yellow. Okay. I’ve just got a parlay at +135. Mallorca double chance, Villareal -1, Levante over two and a half. It looks so obvious that one at +100, especially when Levante scored three on the road to Sevilla earlier on. Barca if they just score one goal that’s -110 in the bag. And Roman he’s going to Celta… 120, thinks that’s a gift. But Villareal and Valencia, just for both teams to score. Villareal win four or 5-1, Pavlos says. But just be aware of Valencia not turning up. Remember the parlay is Villareal and Real Betis. So for everyone, then we look forward to seeing you all again on Thursday, when we start off with the Premier League, then it’ll be Serie A, and then on Friday, it will be Bundesliga. So from Pavlos, I hope the eyes get better soon. Roman, it’s good to have you back. Everyone in the chat-

Roman:

Good to be here.

Flash:

… thumbs up on the way out, please. And remember to subscribe. From everyone at BetUS, you take care.

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