Weekend Best Bets
The first weekend of July is when the baseball season really heats up, figuratively and literally. The midpoint of the schedule is approaching, as is the All-Star break and the trade deadline, preceding a final sprint to the finish.
All that means little as it relates to first-inning scoring, which is all we’re concerned with here. Let’s dive into a handful of weekend matchups that look tempting at the sportsbook, including one YRFI (Yes Runs First Inning) and NRFI (No Runs First Inning) options for each day.
Orioles vs Twins (Friday)
The Baltimore Orioles did something in June they hadn’t done in nearly five years. They continue to make big strides under manager Brandon Hyde, and enter June just seven games below .500, a pretty nice development for one of the game’s most consistent losers in recent years.
Spenser Watkins will be tasked with keeping the team on the right track when he starts at the Minnesota Twins on Friday. The 29-year-old, who spent six years in the minors and sat out 2020 before finally making it to the big club last year, is coming off perhaps the best start of his career, limiting the Chicago White Sox to one unearned run in five frames last Saturday.
However, Watkins has a 7.88 ERA in the first inning this year. Opponents are 12-for-35 (.343) in that frame and he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out in the first. Included in his early struggles was a start vs Tampa Bay two turns ago in which he failed to record an out while giving up three runs.
The Twins are sixth in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage (35.44), so Watkins will be challenged.
Joe Ryan is on the bump for Minnesota. He has a 5.74 ERA since returning from the IL and he’s allowed runs in the first inning in two of his last three outings.
Ryan had a scoreless first inning in a matchup with Baltimore earlier in the year, but it required 25 pitches and he stranded runners at the corners.
First Inning to Score: YES
Yankees vs Guardians (Friday)
The Gerrit Cole-Aaron Civale meeting is a massive mismatch on paper, but we like both hurlers to get through the first unscathed.
Cole has given up seven runs in the first inning this year, with opponents taking him deep five times already. However, three of those homers came in back-to-back-to-back blasts at Minnesota on June 9.
Excluding that one hiccup, Cole has a 2.33 ERA overall and a 2.57 mark in the first. He also tossed 6.2 scoreless vs Cleveland Guardians earlier in the year and has a 2-0 record with a 2.14 ERA in three career Progressive Field starts.
That’s a lot of shiny numbers and good reason to take the New York Yankees when betting online.
Civale doesn’t have any of those glitzy stats. He does show some signs of crawling out an early-season hole, though. The Northeastern University product has a 2.93 ERA over his last three starts and has kept opponents off the board in the first in each of those outings.
Civale’s head-turning 10.00 ERA in the first is a product of one brutal four-start stretch which came before he was put on the IL. Remember, this was a guy who went 10-2 with a 3.32 ERA before the All-Star break a year ago. If he’s turned a corner, he might be able to hold down a Yankees offense hitting .159 over the last seven games.
First Inning to Score: NO
Diamondbacks vs Rockies (Saturday)
We’re bound to jinx everyone, but this one’s almost too easy. The odds will probably reflect that, limiting your payout.
But if you want the thrill of placing a YRFI bet and seeing it come to fruition, here’s a great opportunity. Dallas Keuchel, as over-the-hill as they come, will try to keep Colorado Rockies off the board at Coors Field opposite Austin Gomber, who recently was yanked from the rotation.
Keuchel has allowed 37 runs in 36.1 innings. So he’s giving up more than a run per frame overall as the one-time Cy Young Award winner struggles to find something that works.
He’s never pitched at Coors Field, but we know how this place plays. Gomber does as well, as he’s 1-4 with a 6.68 ERA at home.
The former St. Louis Cardinals product has a 6.82 mark through the first three innings and a 1.64 mark in the fourth, so he’s clearly a slow starter. His ERA overall is at 11.81 over a four-game stretch, including two starts.
A YRFI selection here makes plenty of sense if you’re looking for an MLB bet.
First Inning to Score: YES
Angels vs Astros (Saturday)
It wasn’t long ago that this series looked like it would be a doozy in the AL West. Then the Angels went into the toilet and the division race became all but settled with months to go.
That doesn’t impact your first-inning bets, however, and this one looks like a pretty safe NRFI option.
Patrick Sandoval gets the start for the Los Angeles Angels. He has yielded only four hits in 40 at-bats in the first inning, one of which was a home run he let up against Seattle his last time out. That’s the lone run Sandoval has given up in the opening frame over his last eight outings.
He has struggled mightily at Minute Maid Park, but will be seeing a Houston Astros team that is already without Michael Brantley and was missing Yordan Alvarez on Thursday. The Astros have scored three runs or fewer in five of the last six games.
Jose Urquidy will try to keep his solid streak going for Houston. He has surrendered only two runs on five hits in 13 innings over his last two starts and is looking a bit more like the pitcher who posted a sub-1.00 WHIP in 20 starts last year.
Urquidy owns a 2.51 ERA at home and a still-solid 3.43 mark in the first inning. He’ll face an Angels team that scores 26.47 percent of the time on the road.
First Inning to Score: NO
White Sox vs Giants (Sunday)
Lucas Giolito starts this series finale for the Chicago White Sox. He has been touched for 15 runs in 26 innings between the first and second frames, with opponents batting .324 against him in those early stanzas.
A former first-round pick and an All-Star in 2019, Giolito has allowed a first-inning run in two of his last three starts, part of a four-start stretch in which his ERA is 9.00. He simply hasn’t found his form yet and the San Francisco Giants have scored in the first in back-to-back games.
His opponent, Anthony DeSclafani, is also trying to rediscover something from the past, but it’s not going well. He’s allowed 21 runs in 19 innings, and 19 of them have come in the first three innings.
The 32-year-old has been pounded for 12 runs in 5.2 innings since returning from an ankle injury.
The MLB lines will reflect his massive struggles, and you should consider a YRFI bet if the payout is worth it.
First Inning to Score: YES
Athletics vs Mariners (Sunday)
Frankie Montas is on a nice roll for Oakland, and we see that continuing against Seattle Mariners, which is a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of first inning runs (0.53 per contest).
He flirted with a no-hitter two turns ago vs the Mariners and followed that up with a quality start in a tough spot at Yankee Stadium. The 29-year-old has let up seven runs in his 16 first innings, but he’s been a pitch away from escaping many of those situations.
Robbie Ray has been even better than Montas of late, although he was slightly outdueled in their matchup June 23. The reigning Cy Young Award winner is 1-0 with a 0.67 ERA over his last four starts and he’s let up just three runs in the first inning all season, holding opponents to a .217 average.
The Oakland Athletics scored three runs in the first inning Wednesday at New York. They can do damage in the first, particularly on the road (sventh in majors in scoring percentage at 33.33). But this is the Ray we saw dominate most of last year, and the MLB lines will show a strong lean toward some early goose eggs.
First Inning to Score: NO
