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Judge on Pace to Hit 65 Home Runs, but will Walks, Team Slow his Roll?

Yankees Slugger Inches Closer to Franchise Mark Set by Maris

All Rise

The New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge is poised to rewrite the history books as he bears down on the American League record for home runs in a season. The standard of 61 was set by fellow Pinstripes legend Roger Maris 61 years ago in 1961. That was the major league mark until the Steroid Era, when three players combined to surpass that number six times.

Can Judge do it? He is favored to hit at least 62 in the MLB odds, but will he be pitched around even more down the stretch? Also, his team-first approach – and the Yankees potentially being locked into playoff position – may slow his roll as the regular season winds down.

Judge On Pace To Hit 65 Home Runs, But Will Walks, Team Slow His Roll?

Pace Makes the Race

Judge was listed as a -150 favorite to break the record in broader betting markets, and +110 to fall short. The raw numbers reveal that he should pass Maris. Judge has hit 55 home runs – the most ever by a right-handed Yankee – in 133 games, an average of .41 per contest. If he plays New York’s final 25 games, he is on pace to finish with 65. Judge has four in his last five contests. He walked five times in Wednesday’s doubleheader, raising his American League-leading total to 85. Judge told MLB.com on Monday his approach to the situation.

“Every single day I show up to work ready to go and do whatever it takes to get our team a win,” the 30-year-old Judge said. “If that’s me moving a guy over, driving a guy in, making a play on defense – that’s what I’m focused on. All the individual awards, accolades, stats you get throughout the year, it’s all based on how well you help the team out. So if I’m not out there helping the team every single day, the stats and all that stuff doesn’t show up.”

Judge turned down a seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension in spring training and is to become a free agent after earning $19 million in 2022. He is the overwhelming favorite to win his first AL Most Valuable Player Award, so he’s looking at becoming the highest-paid baseball player per season in history. Judge will probably reach that distinction regardless of whether he breaks the record, but it wouldn’t hurt his bank account.

This is a tricky call when betting online at the sportsbook. Judge is obviously talented enough to pull it off and Yankee Stadium is a dream place to do it. He can continue to think about “moving a guy over, driving a guy in, making a play on defense …” with the short right field porch providing opportunities at the plate and in the field.

October 2, 2022 could become an important date in baseball history. That is the Yankees’ final home game and No. 158 on their schedule. If they are locked into the No. 2 seed in the AL, it’s hard to judge how much the slugger will play in a season-ending four-game series – including a doubleheader – in Texas. But the other side to that argument is that the games down the stretch will likely be meaningless, giving Judge the green light to focus exclusively on the record.

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