Contents

MLB 2023: NL East by the Numbers

· Mar 23 - 6 minutes read

After nearly running away with the division last season, the New York Mets went full Mets and let the Braves surpass them to claim another National League East title. However, the Philadelphia Phillies would turn up the production in the postseason and lose to the Houston Astros in the World Series.

This may be the only division in the MLB to have three legit World Series contenders.

Vaughn Grissom #18 of the Atlanta Braves | Kevin c. cox/getty images/afp

Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins will get lost in the mix while the Washington Nationals will challenge for the worst record in MLB.

Read on for my MLB predictions on the NL East as we close in on opening day.

1. Braves

Odds of Winning the World Series | +850
Win Total O/U | 95½
Odds to Make the Playoffs | -500

For my money, the Braves have the most complete team in the NL East and should beat out the Mets again for the division crown. Their starting lineup terrorized opponents last season, with Ronaldy Acuna Jr, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley raking on the regular.

Atlanta brought in Sean Murphy to boost their offensive power behind the plate. It will be interesting to see how this team reacts to the loss of Dansby Swanson, but rookie Vaughn Grissom looks ready to take over as the everyday shortstop. Don’t forget the NL Rookie of the Year Michael Harris III.

The Braves also boast a powerful rotation, with Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton leading the charge. Breakout star Spencer Strider looks to back up his 11-5 season with another big year in Atlanta.

There is some risk with Atlanta putting so much trust in young guys like Harris and Grissom, but that means their ceiling is sky-high. I’m willing to bet on this team and for them to flirt with 100 wins.

2. Marlins

Odds of Winning the World Series | +10000
Win Total O/U | 76½
Odds to Make the Playoffs | +350

The Marlins are in the unenviable position of having a good team stuck in a phenomenal division. They must compete with the 2021 World Series champions, the reigning NL champions and the highest payroll in MLB history. If they were in the NL Central, they could reasonably end up in first place. But in a talent-packed NL East, the Marlins will need help to do any better than fourth place.

The Marlins’ success hinges on whether Sandy Alcantara can have another Cy Young-caliber season. But he will need help. Alcantara went 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA, but the team finished 24 games below .500.

On offense, the Marlins ranked 28th with a .230 batting average and hit just 144 home runs in 162 games.

The Marlins continue to be a team that never lives up to expectations, no matter what they do in the offseason to improve. I don’t believe this season will be any different, and my MLB bet online is going under this total.

3. Mets

Odds of Winning the World Series | +850
Win Total O/U | 93½
Odds to Make the Playoffs | -500

The Mets have a terrible habit of dominating most of the season, only to fall apart down the stretch and lose out on a division title to the Braves. They’ve done it the previous two seasons and failed in their brief playoff appearance.

The Mets responded by spending big money in the offseason. After signing 2022 AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander, among others, the Mets have the highest payroll in history. Verlander joins three-time Cy Young winner and fellow future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer.

But these aging superstars have injury concerns, and the pitching staff is already down one All-Star. NL Reliever of the Year Edwin Diaz went down last week after celebrating on-field in the World Baseball Classic. Barring some medical miracle, the MLB news is terrible and he will miss the entire season.

Edwin Diaz appears to have suffered an injury during Puerto Rico’s celebration pic.twitter.com/G9Md6SBrEj

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 16, 2023

The Mets have all the talent in the world, but history tells us they will fade as the season progresses. Their two best pitchers are 38 and 40, and their closer is already done for the year. Despite their payroll, the Mets are not a team on which I want to risk an MLB bet.

4. Nationals

Odds of Winning the World Series | +50000
Win Total O/U | 59½
Odds to Make the Playoffs | +2000

It’s crazy to think that the Nationals could be so bad just a few years after winning the World Series in 2019. But here we are. Washington finished with the worst record in the majors last season at 55-107 and a winning percentage below .345. First to worst never hurt so bad.

With Trea Turner, Max Scherzer and Juan Soto gone, the pain is just beginning for the Nationals.

Some intriguing prospects include Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray and CJ Adams. But the trio still has some growing to do, and it’s unlikely to help get this team to 60 wins.

I don’t like going under totals this low, but I will make an exception with my MLB picks for the Nationals in 2023. They are heading to another 100-loss season and could easily lose more games than any other team for the second straight year.

5. Phillies

Odds of Winning the World Series | +1600
Win Total O/U | 88½
Odds to Make the Playoffs | -250

The Phillies shocked the MLB world last season after barely making the playoffs and then going on to represent the National League in the World Series. They earned a Wild Card berth despite Bryce Harper being hurt and went on to beat down the St. Louis Cardinals, Braves and San Diego Padres in the playoffs.

The Phillies have the most challenging path to the World Series of the three favorites.

Philly didn’t sit back, making waves with their free-agent acquisition of SS Trea Turner from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Turner is a career .302 hitter, and his speed netted him 21 steals in 2022. With the bigger bags and pickoff rules, his speed will be a significant factor in Philly.

Harper will be out until the All-Star break, but the roster isn’t without other weapons. Kyle Schwarber led the NL in home runs with 46.

Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola are a solid one-two combo and do a good job pitching deeper into games than many other starters. This helps take the strain off the bullpen, which is probably this team’s weak spot after posting a 4.27 combined ERA in 2022.

Bet On MLB World Series