The National League has been about one team for the last decade, but 2023 could represent a changing of the guard. The Los Angeles Dodgers won the NL West 9 of the previous 10 years and are heavily favored on the MLB odds board to repeat in 2023.
However, the talent surrounding the Dodgers in the division is getting better while LA is getting older. The San Diego Padres have the talent to take over the NL West from the Dodgers, and the MLB lines list them as potential 90+ game winners. The San Francisco Giants are listed in the third spot, but will struggle to make the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks are on the right track, while the Colorado Rockies may be the worst team in the National League.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Odds of Winning the World Series | +4000
- Win Total O/U | 75½
- Odds to Make the Playoffs | +500
The oddsmakers are giving no love to the Arizona Diamondbacks, but they can challenge the Giants for the third spot in the NL West.
Arizona had a successful offseason and scored Gabriel Moreno, Evan Longoria, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, and Kyle Lewis. The group joins a roster with a surprising number of decent players, including Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and Corbin Carroll.
Pitcher Zac Gallen is a potential Cy Young Award winner and has already gotten some attention in the voting. The rotation also features Merrill Kelly, Madison Bumgarner, and Zach Davies.
The rotation may not be sexy other than Zac Gallen, but they look great compared to the bullpen. It’s Arizona’s biggest weakness, and it finished with a 4.58-team ERA with 33 saves. It will be their poor relievers if anything holds Arizona back from going over 75½ games.
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Odds of Winning the World Series | +850
- Win Total O/U | 96½
- Odds to Make the Playoffs | -700
Is the Dodgers’ dominance in the NL West coming to an end? There are several reasons to think it could happen sooner than later. The Padres are getting really good, and the Dodgers lost more than they gained for the first offseason in a long time.
The Dodgers’ free-agent losses of note were Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson, and Justin Turner. From where I sit, the addition of J.D. Martinez, David Peralta, and Noah Syndergaard are all downgrades from what they had last season.
Clayton Kershaw isn’t getting any younger, but with Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urias, the Dodgers rotation is scary good. Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are one of the best one-two combos at the plate.
Don’t get me wrong; the Dodgers will not fall apart, be a bad team, or miss the playoffs. But I don’t think they are headed for another World Series and could finish second in the NL West for the second time in three years. For my money, the Padres are a better bet online to win the division.
San Francisco Giants
- Odds of Winning the World Series | +5000
- Win Total O/U | 81½
- Odds to Make the Playoffs | +185
The oddsmakers have the Giants pegged as the third-place team in the NL West this season. But they are closer to a fourth-place team and heading in the wrong direction in 2023.
The Giants had a blink-and-you-miss-it offseason and failed to sign either Aaron Judge or Carlos Correa. Instead, the best San Francisco could muster were Michael Conforto, Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea, and Mitch Haniger.
Remember that the Giants lost one of their best players, Carlos Rodon, to the New York Yankees. After Logan Webb, the Giants’ rotation is just a bunch of warm bodies trying not to get hurt.
The Giants decided to play it safe this season, and It could cost them a third-place finish.
San Diego Padres
- Odds of Winning the World Series | +900
- Win Total O/U | 93½
- Odds to Make the Playoffs | -450
Despite the dominance by the Dodgers over the last 10 years, I like the Padres to win their first division title since 2006. The Padres have one of the scariest lineups in the MLB that will be tough for even the Dodgers to overcome.
The lineup is highlighted by superstars Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, Matt Carpenter, and Nelson Cruz. The Padres are not a team that any pitcher looks forward to facing in 2023.
Manny *More Runs* Machado. #PadresST pic.twitter.com/yawIOLXjsq
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) March 22, 2023
The one area where the Padres may need help is their rotation. Despite a group headlined by Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, there are concerns. No. 3 starter Blake Snell has bouts of inconsistent play, while Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez are average starters at best. The rotation is top-heavy and vulnerable to injuries. Musgrove is already hurt and just started throwing simulated games after breaking his toe. Seth Lugo will likely take over his rotation spot until Musgrove can return.
If the rotation holds together and gets healthy, watch out, the Padres could win 100 games and dominate the NL West. With plus odds to win the division, San Diego is a tempting MLB bet heading into opening day.
Colorado Rockies
- Odds of Winning the World Series | +25000
- Win Total O/U | 65½
- Odds to Make the Playoffs | +2000
The Rockies are the most straightforward team in the ML West to break down and pick apart. I would be shocked if they didn’t finish dead last in the NL West with some of the worst MLB playoff odds to win the World Series at +25000.
To put how bad this team is into perspective, their most significant off-season addition to the team was Nolan Jones. Last season for the Cleveland Guardians, Jones hit .224 with two home runs in 28 games. This is the guy that the Rockies chose to bring on.
The Rockies haven’t had a winning season since 2018 when they went 91-72 and went to the ALDS. Don’t expect anything close to that this season; if anything, Colorado may be in the selling mood come the trade deadline. This makes the under 65½ games an attractive play in the futures market.
