MLB Betting Specials: Will We See a Perfect Game in 2025?
- The odds for a perfect MLB game in 2025 are +350 at BetUS Sportsbook.
- Only 1 perfect game has happened in the last decade (2023, Domingo German)
- Make bank with our top MLB picks! Join with our promo code HUDDLE125.
In baseball, few achievements are as elusive and celebrated as the perfect game. For a pitcher to retire all 27 batters in order without allowing a single baserunner is the epitome of pitching mastery.

As we gear up for the 2025 MLB season, BetUS Sportsbook is offering a prop bet with +350 MLB odds on any pitcher accomplishing this rare feat. But how realistic is this wager, and are there better betting options to consider?
Let’s crunch the numbers, spotlight some potential candidates, and explore alternative MLB betting specials that might offer more betting value.
Never forget when Domingo Germán threw the most random perfect game in MLB history pic.twitter.com/xXFPmKaaNv
— The Yankee Report (@YankeeReport_) January 16, 2025
Breaking Down the Odds for a Perfect MLB Game
The Rarity of Perfection
To say that perfect games are rare is an understatement. Since the inception of Major League Baseball, over 238,500 games have been played, yet only 24 official perfect games have been recorded. This translates to a minuscule occurrence rate of approximately 0.01%. The last pitcher to achieve this was Domingo Germán of the New York Yankees in June 2023, ending an 11-year drought since Félix Hernández’s perfect game in 2012. Interestingly, 2012 was a standout year with three perfect games (Hernandez, Matt Cain, Phillip Hunter), but such frequency is an anomaly rather than the norm.
Understanding the Odds
BetUS Sportsbook’s +350 betting odds suggest a perceived probability of about 22% for a perfect game occurring in the 2025 season. Given the historical rarity, this seems optimistic. The probability of a pitcher achieving a perfect game can be estimated using an annoyingly complicated formula for someone who hates math as much as I do.
Chance for perfection = (1−OBP) * 27 * (1 – OBP)^{27} * (1−OBP) * 27
OBP represents the league-average on-base percentage. With recent league-average OBPs hovering around .320, the math indicates extremely long odds for perfection in any given game.
Potential Betting Candidates for MLB Perfection
While the MLB betting lines are steep, certain pitchers possess the skill set and dominance to flirt with perfection. Here are a few to watch in 2025:
Tarik Skubal
The Detroit Tigers‘ ace had a stellar 2024 season, unanimously clinching the American League Cy Young Award. Skubal posted an 18-4 record with a 2.39 ERA and led the league with 228 strikeouts. His ability to command the strike zone and limit baserunners makes him a potential candidate for a perfect game. Entering the 2025 season, Skubal is the favorite for the Cy Young Award at +500, reflecting his elite status on the mound.
Bet on Taril Skubal to Win the AL Cy Young Award (+400)
🚨 UNANIMOUS 🚨
Tarik Skubal had a no-doubt Cy Young season 💪 pic.twitter.com/Rx4RXxBoCF
— MLB (@MLB) November 21, 2024
Paul Skenes
In his rookie season with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Skenes made an immediate impact, finishing third in the National League Cy Young voting. He recorded an 11-3 record with a 1.96 ERA and 170 strikeouts over 133 innings. Skenes‘ ability to dominate hitters and maintain composure under pressure positions him as a dark horse for achieving a perfect game.
Cole Ragans
Pitching for the Kansas City Royals, Ragans had a breakout 2024 season, finishing fourth in the American League Cy Young voting. He notched an 11-9 record with a 3.14 ERA and amassed 223 strikeouts over 186⅓ innings. Ragans‘ consistent performance and ability to go deep into games make him another pitcher to watch for a potential perfect game.
Bet on a Perfect Game to Happen in 2025 (+350)
Alternative Betting Options
Given the odds and historical rarity of perfect games, wagering on this specific prop may not offer the best value. Instead, consider exploring other MLB specials at BetUS Sportsbook that provide more favorable odds and a higher likelihood of occurrence.
Futures bets on team performances, player milestones, or MLB predictions on end-of-the-year awards offer more strategic opportunities. These alternatives not only increase the chances of a favorable outcome but also allow for more informed decision-making based on player and team statistics.
While the allure of betting on a perfect game is undeniable, weighing the historical rarity and actual probabilities is essential before placing such a wager. Pitchers like Skubal, Skenes, and Ragans have showcased the talent that could, in extraordinary circumstances, lead to perfection. However, the infrequency of this achievement suggests that bettors might find more consistent value in other MLB picks offered by BetUS Sportsbook.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Question of the Day
Who threw the first perfect game in MLB history?
In the World Series era (1903-present), the first perfect game was thrown by none other than Cy Young in 1904.