MLB Betting Strategy: Advanced Pitching Metrics to Spot Pitchers Worth Fading

Let’s dive into some of the key metrics and how they can help you make smarter bets.

5 Pitching Metrics and How to Apply Them to MLB Betting

1. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

FIP is a great starting point when evaluating a pitcher’s true performance. While ERA (Earned Run Average) is the more traditional stat, it’s heavily influenced by the quality of the defense behind the pitcher. On the other hand, FIP focuses solely on the outcomes a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs.

Example:

Let’s say you’re looking at two pitchers with an ERA of around 3.50. However, Pitcher A has an FIP of 2.80, while Pitcher B’s FIP is 4.30. Despite their similar ERAs, Pitcher B is actually performing worse than his ERA suggests, possibly due to some lucky breaks or stellar defense. A bet online against Pitcher B could be a smart move, especially if he’s facing a team with a strong lineup.

Real-World Case:

Take a look at someone like Lance Lynn. In 2023, Lynn had a relatively high ERA of 5.55, but his FIP was 4.35. This indicated that while he was struggling, he wasn’t quite as bad as his ERA suggested, but still, it wasn’t great. Bettors who dug into his FIP found opportunities to capitalize when Lynn was overvalued in the market.

2. Expected ERA (xERA)

xERA is another advanced metric that strips away luck to give you a clearer picture of how a pitcher is actually performing. It’s based on the quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) against a pitcher, combined with their strikeout and walk rates.

Example:

Imagine a pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 but an xERA of 4.50. This suggests that the pitcher has been getting lucky—maybe batters are hitting line drives directly at fielders, or maybe he’s been fortunate enough to face weaker opponents. This pitcher could be due for a regression, making him a prime candidate to bet against.

Real-World Case:

Carlos Rodón in 2022 had an ERA of 2.88 but an xERA of 3.63. While still solid, the gap between his ERA and xERA hinted that he might not sustain such an elite level of performance. Understanding this helped bettors avoid overestimating their value in tough matchups.

3. Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

BABIP measures how often balls hit into play turn into hits. The league average BABIP is usually around .300. If a pitcher has a significantly higher or lower BABIP, it could indicate some good or bad luck.

Example:

A pitcher with a BABIP of .240 is likely benefiting from some luck (or great defense), and that luck may not last. Conversely, a pitcher with a BABIP of .350 might be getting unlucky, suggesting better days could be ahead.

Real-World Case:

In 2023, Aaron Nola had a BABIP of .318, significantly higher than the league average. Despite a solid FIP, his actual ERA was inflated because balls were finding gaps at an unusually high rate. Betting against Nola in certain situations was very profitable, especially when facing high-contact teams.

4. Hard-Hit Rate (HH%)

Hard-hit rate measures the percentage of batted balls that have an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. A high hard-hit rate often leads to more extra-base hits and home runs, which can be a red flag for a pitcher. This is also a gold mine for those who like to make MLB picks on offensive player props.

Example:

If a pitcher has a hard-hit rate of 40% or higher, it’s a sign that hitters are squaring up the ball more often. Even if this pitcher’s ERA or FIP doesn’t look too bad, the high hard-hit rate suggests that he’s living dangerously and could be primed for a rough outing.

Real-World Case:

In 2023, Patrick Corbin had a hard-hit rate of 45.6%, one of the highest in the league. Despite his efforts, balls were consistently being crushed off him. MLB betting experts who spotted this could have taken advantage by betting against him, especially in hitter-friendly ballparks.

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5. Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched (WHIP)

WHIP is a classic stat that still holds a lot of value. It measures how many baserunners a pitcher allows per inning, combining both walks and hits. A high WHIP indicates that a pitcher is constantly pitching under pressure, which often leads to trouble.

Example:

A pitcher with a WHIP over 1.40 is generally struggling to keep runners off the bases. Even if they’ve managed to escape jams so far, it’s only a matter of time before those baserunners start turning into runs.

Real-World Case:

In 2021 and 2022, Jordan Lyles had a WHIP of 1.39, leading to ERAs of 5.15 and 4.42, respectively. His inability to keep runners off base made him an easy target for bettors looking to fade pitchers in tough matchups.

Advanced MLB pitching metrics like FIP, xERA, BABIP, hard-hit rate, and WHIP can provide deeper insights into a pitcher’s performance. By digging into these stats, you can spot struggling pitchers who might be overvalued in the market and find smart opportunities to bet against them.

Whether looking at a starter on the decline or a reliever on the ropes, these metrics can help you make more informed bets and, hopefully, cash in on some big wins. So next time you’re sizing up a matchup, remember to go beyond the basics—because in baseball betting, a little extra knowledge can go a long way.

Looking for more? Here are other MLB betting strategy articles you might enjoy:

• Bet Smart or Go Broke: The Art of MLB Bankroll Management
• Take MLB Betting to the Next Level With Advanced Defensive Stats
• Maximizing Your MLB Prop Bets with Exit Velocity, Launch Angle

As always, make sure to check the latest MLB news and expert predictions before placing your bets!

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