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MLB Futures Betting: AL Cy Young Top Contenders

As we look ahead to the 2024 MLB season, the American League Cy Young Futures betting market is heating up, with several pitchers emerging as front-runners. Here’s a breakdown of the odds from BetUS for top candidates and what they might indicate about the upcoming season.

 

MLB Futures Betting: AL Cy Young Top Contenders
Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees pitches during the first inning | Sarah Stier/Getty Images/AFP

Yankees RHP Gerrit Cole (+500)

As the favorite, Cole’s odds reflect his dominance on the mound. His impressive performance in the 2023 season, where he posted a strong ERA, won him the Cy Young last year. And while it’s rare for guys to go back-to-back, the MLB odds don’t lie.

There are some minor concerns for Cole heading into 2024, including his age and a heavy workload over his career. While I disagree with the ageism that the 33-year-old Cole is experiencing, having thrown 200+ innings six times in his career is a worry regarding longevity.

Blue Jays RHP Kevin Gausman (+700)

Kevin Gausman is a strong candidate for the 2024 Cy Young Award, backed by his impressive performance in the 2023 season. Gausman showcased his elite pitching skills, recording a 3.16 ERA with an outstanding tally of 237 strikeouts over 185 innings.

Gausman’s odds testify to his skill, particularly his high strikeout rate (11.5 K9) and ERA from 2023 (3.16). Those stats rank him first in strikeouts in the AL and fourth in ERA. This exceptional strikeout count and solid ERA showcase his ability to manage opposing batters effectively.

Gausman’s selection to the All-MLB Second Team in 2023 further validates his status among the game’s top pitchers. His consistent performance and significant role in the Toronto Blue Jays’ pitching staff make him a noteworthy contender for the Cy Young Award, reflected in his +700 Vegas MLB betting odds.

Astros LHP Framber Valdez (+750)

Framber Valdez is a strong contender for the 2024 AL Cy Young Award, buoyed by his outstanding performance in 2023. He delivered 198 innings with a solid 3.46 ERA, and his xFIP stood at an impressive 3.39.

Notably, Valdez joined the elite group of pitchers with over 200 strikeouts, exemplifying his strikeout prowess.

Additionally, his 2022 season was remarkable, leading the AL in innings pitched (201.1), complete games (3), shutouts (1), quality starts (26) and HR/9 IP (0.492), all career-bests.

Valdez’s +750 odds at BetUS Sportsbook make the talented starter a good value underdog to excel in the AL Cy Young race.

Twins RHP Pablo Lopez (+1200)

Pablo Lopez’s candidacy for the 2024 Cy Young Award is strengthened by his impressive performance in the 2023 season. Lopez showcased his pitching prowess playing for the Minnesota Twins with a solid 3.66 ERA across 32 games.

He struck out an impressive 234 batters over 194 innings, demonstrating his ability to handle opposing hitters effectively. His WHIP was commendable at 1.18, indicating his efficiency and control on the mound.

Lopez’s xERA (Expected ERA, a predictive metric that estimates a pitcher’s future ERA) was notably lower at 3.00, with an xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.25, both metrics suggesting he performed even better than his traditional stats indicate.

His ability to deliver high strikeout numbers with solid control and pitching efficiency makes him a strong contender for the Cy Young Award 2024.

At this point in the offseason, Lopez is my favorite bet online to claim the 2024 AL Cy Young Award.

Mariners RHP Luis Castillo (+1200)

With his odds of +1200, Luis Castillo emerges as a compelling underdog candidate for the 2024 AL Cy Young Award, building on a solid 2023 season with the Seattle Mariners.

Castillo’s performance was marked by a commendable 3.34 ERA over a substantial workload of 197 innings, demonstrating effectiveness and endurance. He excelled in strikeout efficiency, recording a significant rate of 27.3%, showcasing his ability to dominate opposing hitters.

Additionally, Castillo’s control on the mound was evident, with a low walk rate of 7.0%.

Castillo’s statistics highlight his consistent performance and potential as a strong contender, especially as an underdog.

 

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