The weekend slate in Major League Baseball features Freddie Freeman’s return to Atlanta, the continuation of the Astros-Yankees series in New York, an intriguing matchup between Toronto and Milwaukee and a resurgent Boston squad heading to Cleveland. As it pertains to betting online on first-inning scoring, these and all other series are worth exploring. Let’s take a glance at a few that stand out.
Mets vs Marlins (Friday)
The very first matchup of the Friday night schedule features two starters who have been particularly stingy of late.
Taijuan Walker has been touched in the first to the tune of six runs in 11 innings, but one was unearned and he’s been a bit unlucky – opponents’ BABIP in the first is .343. Additionally, four of the six first-inning runs against Walker came on May 5 at Philadelphia. In eight starts since that rocky outing, he owns a sparkling 2.42 ERA overall.
The former first-round pick stranded a runner at third in the opening frame against Miami his last time out by striking out the side. That goose egg is part of what has the Marlins ranked 29th in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage (17.65)
Sandy Alcantara goes for the Marlins, and he’s been dominant throughout, regardless of the inning. In fact, his ERA in every frame is below 2.00, except for the sixth (3.86). Alcantara needed 13 pitches in a 1-2-3 against the Mets his last time out and hasn’t allowed a first-inning run since May 16.
New York is among the leaders in first-inning scoring, but much of that takes place at home. They rank just 21st in the majors in scoring percentage on the road (21.62).
First Inning to Score: NO
Rockies vs Twins (Friday)
We usually eye whichever game is going on at Coors Field as a possible YRFI (Yes Runs First Inning) bet, but the Rockies are actually fourth in the National League in first-inning scoring percentage on the road (28.13).
Colorado’s starter, German Marquez, has the second-highest ERA (6.16) among qualified hurlers, and it’s been a bit worse in the first (6.23). That’s always been an issue with the veteran from Venezuela, whose career 5.38 mark in the first is his highest of any inning.
Marquez faces a Twins lineup that is second in the AL (fourth in the majors) in first-inning scoring percentage (36.62) and second in the majors (first AL) in runs per first (0.76) behind table setter Luis Arraez.
They’ll be trying to get some early support for Dylan Bundy, who has allowed a first-inning run in two of his last three starts and carries a 5.17 ERA into this one. It’s not a bad idea to look at the MLB odds for this matchup and consider a YRFI bet at the sportsbook.
First Inning to Score: YES
Pirates vs Rays (Saturday)
The last time JT Brubaker gave up a first-inning run it was on May 7, as the Pittsburgh Pirates righty allowed a pair in a start at Cincinnati. He’s since put up eight zeroes in a row to begin games and will face a battered Tampa Bay offense that scored in the opening frame once in its last 10 games.
On the other side sits Corey Kluber and his 3.03 home ERA. He’s given up six earned runs in his 13 first innings, but some were to the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox. This time he gets a Pirates team that is 25th in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage (24.64).
Kluber’s mediocrity in the first may push the MLB lines into giving you a better payout if you go with an NRFI bet here. We like that strategy.
First Inning to Score: NO
Dodgers vs Braves (Saturday)
Andrew Heaney will be making just his fourth start for Los Angeles and his second since returning from a shoulder injury. His first three outings have been spectacular, as the veteran has let up one earned run while fanning 23 in 15.1 innings.
Heaney’s ERA through the first five frames is 0.00 – no earned runs allowed in 14⅓ innings. The Braves are 23rd in the majors in first-inning scoring percentage (25.35) and 26th in runs per first (0.39).
With Freeman in the fold last year, they were third and sixth, respectively, in those two categories.
Atlanta starter Max Fried has a 1.93 ERA in the first inning and a 1.93 ERA in the second inning. He starts out strong each game, compiling 29 strikeouts against three walks in 28 innings over those two frames and holding opponents to a .175 average.
Fried blanked the Dodgers over seven dominant innings earlier this year and was solid against them through six in his one home start vs LA in the 2021 NLCS.
Maybe Freeman goes deep in a storybook first at-bat in his return to Atlanta, but we like the chance of some easy firsts for Heaney and Fried.
First Inning to Score: NO
Cubs vs Cardinals (Sunday)
It’ll be a steamy weekend in Missouri and balls figure to be flying at Busch Stadium, especially on Sunday.
The Chicago Cubs, who have allowed the most home runs in baseball (99), give the ball in the finale to one of their most generous arms in rookie Matt Swarmer. The Kutztown University product has served up 11 homers in only 24.1 innings since becoming a big leaguer, including one in an otherwise solid start vs St. Louis last month.
Swarmer has been pretty good to begin games before teams get to him in the middle frames, but the Cardinals jump all over opponents at home, scoring 44.12 percent of the time in the first.
St. Louis expects Jack Flaherty to find his groove at some point, but it hasn’t happened yet. In each of his two starts since returning from a shoulder injury, the one-time first-round selection has lasted three innings. He has walked seven while striking out four in those six rocky frames, giving up two runs in the first in both outings.
The Cubs don’t do much right, but they lead all of baseball in first-inning run percentage (42.86). Perhaps Flaherty figures it out in this one. Perhaps not.
First Inning to Score: YES
Phillies vs Padres (Sunday)
Kyle Gibson opposes Yu Darvish in this series finale that figures to be a low-scoring affair, at least early on.
Gibson has allowed one run in the first inning all year, and it came on a first-pitch home run against Colorado on April 25. Of the 13 scoreless firsts he’s tossed, one was against San Diego in a matchup last month.
The Padres are below average offensively in the first, averaging 0.44 runs per opening frame, although they’ve been better of late.
Darvish has been unsteady in the first. After giving up a run to start his last outing vs Arizona, his first-inning ERA sits at 6.23. And he has been a slow starter over portions of his career.
However, only one of the 14 hits he’s allowed in the opening inning this season went for extra bases. The BABIP against him is .371. Bleeders and bloops are finding their way to pay dirt, and at some point that should normalize.
We expect that to be the case against a Philadelphia team that ranks last in the NL in first-inning runs per game on the road (0.29). Lock in an NRFI here when making your MLB picks.
First Inning to Score: NO
