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AL Central Quarterly Report Card

The AL Central has the reputation of being one of the worst divisions. With an exciting Chicago White Sox team, a new leader has emerged to challenge for the division title against the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians. After the first quarter of the 2021 season, the White Sox and Indians have set themselves apart. And not shocking, the two worst records in the MLB reside in the AL Central. How has every team fared after the first quarter compared to their expectations, and what is their outlook for the rest of the season?

Note: All teams’ records should be a snapshot of where they stood at the end of Sunday, May 16 so as to fix the report at the quarter mark of the season.

Whit Merrifield of the Kansas City Royals reacts after striking out to end the game against the Detroit Tigers
Leon Halip/Getty Images/AFP

AL Central Division

Chicago White Sox

Projected Wins: 89½

Actual Record: 24-15

Chicago did not play well consistently out of the gate. Notably dropping three of four to the Angels in the first series of the year, then splitting an early series with the Indians at home. But the White Sox have begun to play well. The White Sox are a solid 10-7 on the road and are 8-2 in their last 10 games.

Looking at their numbers, one of the first things you see is their +61 run differential, which should stand out to anyone making run total bets in their name.

The pitching has been fantastic, their team ERA is third-lowest in the majors at 3.27. Allowing only 3.56 runs per game, also third-best in the majors. Also noteworthy that their bullpen seems to be closing out good games that their starters have going, as they have six team shutouts already.

Offensively, they have been led by their DH, Yermin Mercedes, who has the highest batting average in baseball, and the 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu, whose 33 RBI is tied for second. Despite a decent offense, keep your eye on offensive production for the remainder of the year, they have not hit a lot of home runs, tied with the Tigers at 36 for least team HRs in the AL.

Based on the strength of schedule & results, Fangraphs has Chicago projected to win 89 games. Even with the scrappy Indians at their heels, Betus has the ChiSox -275 to win the division and that is looking like a strong bet. Their grade is based on a slow start and because of how much talent this team has. If they continue to play as well as they have in the last couple of weeks, that B+ will turn into an A.

Grade: B+

Cleveland Indians

Projected Wins: 80½

Actual Record: 21-17

Despite losing three of their first five games and three of four to the Yankees in mid-April, the Indians have played pretty consistent baseball.

Cleveland’s pitching is once again at the heart of its success and is why we find it in second place. As a staff, the Indians are second in the AL in runs allowed. Which despite low-production offensively, has kept their run differential +10. Their ace, Shane Bieber, is looking like a front-runner for AL Cy Young with 92 strikeouts. Other starters, Aaron Civale is 5-1 with a 3.40 ERA and Zach Plesac has a staggering low 0.958 WHIP.

The Cleveland offense is keeping the Indians from being elite but it is worth a second look.

One of the keys to their success is how efficiency. The Indians have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate. Their 46 home runs as a team are above the league average. Yes, their dismal .209 team batting average is the second-lowest of the majors but convert the runners they do get – they leave the fewest runners on the base of any team.

The Cleveland Indians have the lowest salary and are in second place.

The team’s ownership traded away its marquee player (Francisco Lindor) this past offseason after it made the playoffs. Based on the strength of the schedule and results, Fangraphs has Cleveland winning a total of 82 games. The Indians are punching way above their weight and should not be counted out. BetUS has the Indians +300 win the AL Central, which because the Twins and Royals have struggled, might be worth exploring in the event that the White Sox implode. Their A grade is based on how well they are doing despite having less to work with than any other team.

Grade: A

Kansas City Royals

Projected Wins: 72½

Actual Record: 18-22

The Royals did not have high expectations coming into 2021. Kansas City was poised to be a serious contender in the AL Central after the first month but after a terrible stretch of games to end the first quarter, the Royals are looking like the below-average team many bettors expected them to be.

Kansas City was 14-7 and stood atop the divisional, looking down on favorites like the Twins and White Sox. A series in Minnesota changed that, the Royals proceeded to go on an 11-game losing streak, all to AL Central opponents. The Royals were able to split a four-game series with the White Sox and finish the quarter 6 1/2 back of Chicago and in third place of the AL Central. Salvador Perez has been fantastic. He leads the team with nine home runs and 27 RBIs, and the most hits with 44.

The first quarter has been conflicting, their hot start was well above expectations but the extremely cold stretch is still worse than the most cynical of outlook. The Royals were able to stop their losing streak against a red-hot White Shox team, which shows promise that Kansas City can stick around. Because of the long losing streak, the Royals fell back to about where most thought they would be, under .500 but not one of the worst teams in the league.

Grade: C

Detroit Tigers

Projected Wins: 66½

Actual Record: 14-26

The Detroit Tigers have produced paltry numbers, considering the middle-of-the-road schedule that they have faced. With an average opponent ranking just under 16, Detroit should have been expected to be in a much better position than it is but at least it is not in last place … looking at you Minnesota Twins.

Detroit, like most teams, plays better at home, but considering the Tigers have won five games on the road, that isn’t saying much.  The good news is that the Tigers already have six wins in May, after having eight in all of April.  Detroit could have possibly turned a corner, and there may be some value in betting on the Tigers.

Had you bet on every one of Detroit’s games, you would be eligible for a big tax writeoff for betting losses, as a $100 bet on each contest would have cost you 35% of your wagers or between $1300 and $1400.

The good news for the Tigers is that their schedule doesn’t get any harder, as the remaining teams they face rank an average of 15.5. The Tigers have been playing better, having won four in a row and five of their last seven, Detroit has a shot to make a move up the standings.  With a preseason total of 67 wins, and with the season 25% over, the Tigers are on the cusp of missing out on the over.

If they want to improve, they need to focus on their hitting, as they have the fourth-worst average in the league and a -69 run differential.  Perhaps they have figured things out.  Only time will tell.  If you have bet them all season, why stop now?

Grade: D

Minnesota Twins

Projected Wins: 88½

Actual Record: 13-25

The Minnesota Twins’ first quarter has been one of the biggest surprises. Not only are they at the bottom of the AL Central, but they also have the worst record in baseball. Hard to have imagined this during spring training.

They started the season out by winning two straight series, first the Brewers then the Tigers but have since only won one series. As this first quarter ends, the Twins are 7-13 in their home games and are 2-8 in their last 10 games.

Their pitching has been awful.  Their run differential -20

Upside? They have the fourth-best SLG in the majors at .421 and a decent OPS at .735

Bryon Buxton has the highest WAR of any player in the MLB. In theory, he should be leading the AL MVP race.

Fangraphs has the Twins 78-84 in the end. Based on the expectations from league experts, their fanbase, and the franchise – you have to grade this season as a total fail. They are currently +1100 to turn things around and win the AL Central.

Grade: F

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