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MLB Rookie of the Year Futures: Can Yamamoto Cash With Dodgers?

The 2024 MLB season is fast approaching, so we are slowly running out of time to make preseason future bets. One future bet that always intrigues me is which two players will win Rookie of the Year in the upcoming season. The National League ROY race might be a one-man show this season, but the American League features more competitive MLB lines and several viable options.

Let’s get into the ROY betting odds for the AL and NL and make some educated guesses on the outcome.

MLB Rookie of the Year Futures: Can Yamamoto Cash With Dodgers?
New Los Angeles Dodger, Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto/Robyn Beck / AFP

 

2024 NL Rookie of the Year Odds

2024 NL Rookie of the Year Predictions

The Los Angeles Dodgers team not only signed Shohei Ohtani this offseason but also NL Rookie of the Year favorite Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Japanese phenom is expected to take over as the Dodgers ace in 2024, with Clayton Kershaw aging out of the job with haste.

 

When you look at the bullet points on Yoshinobu player, it’s easy to see why his projections are sky-high. But is a guy who has never thrown a pitch in the majors worth the money the Dodgers are paying him? I mean, day one on the job, and this guy is the highest-paid pitcher ever at $325 million over 12 years.

 

Projecting just how Yamamoto will fare in MLB is tough. Undoubtedly, he’s been the best pitcher in the Nippon League since Ohtani jumped ship to the majors. Yamamoto wrapped up his third straight season in Japan with an ERA under 2.00, as well as a career-best 1.74 FIP and a ludicrously low HR/FB% of 1%.

 

I usually don’t recommend favorites when MLB betting on futures, especially on a guy who never threw a pitch in the majors. But Yamamot feels like a special case, and the bigwigs of the MLB agree. The league surveyed front office officials across the league to see who they thought would win the upcoming ROY. Survey says … Yamamoto was chosen by an overwhelming majority of those asked.

 


Even though he is favored, Yamamoto’s MLB odds are +200 to win NL ROY, and for a guy with his skill set, there is a fair bit of value in betting on the Dodgers’ newest import.

2024 AL Rookie of the Year Odds

2024 AL Rookie of the Year Predictions

Unlike the NL ROY race, which is shaping up to be a Yamamoto vs everyone situation, the chase for the AL award should be much tighter. While more candidates mean a more exciting run to the end of the season, it makes MLB picks more difficult.

According to the Vegas betting odds, the two current favorites are Jackson Holliday (+250) of the Baltimore Orioles and Evan Carter (+300) of the Texas Rangers. The same head office guys that voted for Yamamoto as a heavy favorite in the NL weighed in on the AL ROY race, and opinions were mixed. Carter had the majority of votes at 36%, but Holliday earned 30%.

Meanwhile, Junior Caminero got 15% of the votes, Wyatt Langford 11%, and the field accounted for the remaining 8% of those polled.

In this case, Carter, second on the odds board, earned 6% more votes than Holliday, the odds-on favorite. Despite Carter having more experience at the MLB level, Holliday remains a favorite among sportsbooks, and for good reason. He’s one of the most exciting young players in the MLB, has a great eye, strong bat skills, and is durable.

While I’m not sleeping on Carter, his positioning on the odds board feels like it may have been influenced too much by the Texas Rangers winning the World Series. Carter played a big role in the series, going 7-for-21 with three doubles and an RBI. He’s also kind of terrible against left-handed pitching,

Carter hit a staggeringly good .365 in 52 at-bats against RHP in 2023, which is impressive. The problem is, in 10 at-bats against LHP, Carter is 0.000. No, that’s not a typo. He went 0-for-10 against lefties, with one walk and an OBP of 0.091.

 

 

Question Of The Day

I can’t risk a bet online on a guy with such a glaring weakness. How can he expect to be Rookie of the Year when he’s likely to sit against LHP?


At +250, Holliday is more well-rounded and a better horse to back.

 

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