MLB Stats You Need to Cash Home Run Prop Bets

But before you start picking players like they’re your favorite on your fantasy team, you’ve got to get a little more analytical. This isn’t just a game of “Who’s Got the Biggest Biceps?”—although, admittedly, that doesn’t hurt.

Let’s dive into the key stats and metrics that can turn you into a home run prop bet pro.

Basic Stats Form Foundation of Your HR Picks

Let’s start with the basics. Sometimes, the simple stuff can give MLB betting fans a pretty good idea of who’s going yard tonight. But remember, while these stats are crucial, they’re like the bread on a sandwich. Tasty, yes, but what you pile on top makes it satisfying.

Home Runs

This might seem obvious, but if you’re betting on someone to hit a home run, check how often they hit home runs. Look at a player’s recent history — last 10 games, last 30 days or even their entire season — because consistency matters. Someone hot right now is more likely to stay hot.

At-Bats (AB) and Plate Appearances (PA)

The more chances a player gets, the more likely they are to hit a home run. Look for players who consistently get a good number of at-bats per game. This is especially important if you’re looking at players who bat high in the order since they’ll likely get more opportunities.

Opposing Pitcher’s HR/9:

This is the number of home runs a pitcher gives up per nine innings. If you’ve got a pitcher on the mound serving dingers like a Subway employee slinging foot-longs, you might want to target some hitters from the opposing team.

5 Advanced Metrics: Secret Sauce of HR Prop Bets

We’ve buttered our bread with some basics; now, let’s pile on the advanced metrics — the juicy stuff that separates the casual bettors from the seasoned sharps.

1. Isolated Power (ISO)

ISO is the stat that lets you see a hitter’s true power. It strips out all those singles and looks only at extra-base hits (doubles, triples and home runs). The higher the ISO, the more likely your player is to knock one out of the park. If a player has an ISO over .200, you’re in the right ballpark for a home run bet.

2. Hard-Hit Rate

This metric measures the percentage of balls a player hits with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. The harder a player hits the ball, the more likely it is to leave the yard. If a hitter’s hard-hit rate is soaring, there’s a good chance he’ll turn a pitch into a souvenir for a lucky fan.

3. Fly Ball Percentage (FB%)

Ground balls don’t become home runs — unless you’re betting on Little League. Focus on players who hit a lot of fly balls. Look for a fly ball percentage (FB%) above 40% and you’re on the right track. Combine that with a high hard-hit rate, and you have a real home run threat.

4. Barrel Percentage (Barrel%)

A “barrel” is a well-hit ball with the ideal exit velocity and launch angle combination for a home run. The higher the Barrel%, the better your chances of watching your MLB player prop pick trot around the bases. Think of it as the golden ticket for home run betting.

5. Launch Angle

This is the angle at which the ball leaves the bat. Launch angle is tricky because you want to avoid extremes. Too low and it’s a grounder. Too high and it’s a pop-up. The sweet spot for homers is typically between 25 and 35 degrees. You’re in a good place if your player consistently hits in that range.

Contextual Factors: The Extras That Matter

Even with all the stats, you’ve got to consider the context. This is like picking the right condiment for your sandwich. Don’t overlook it!

Ballpark Factors

Not all ballparks are created equal. Some are home run havens (hello, Coors Field!), while others are where fly balls go to die. Check the dimensions and the weather — blowing wind can turn a warning-track fly ball into a moonshot.

Matchups

Lefty vs. righty, bullpen strength and even the catcher’s ability to frame pitches can all impact a game. A hitter who crushes righties but struggles against southpaws might not be your best bet if they’re facing a tough lefty.

Recent Form

Baseball is a streaky sport. A player who’s locked in is more likely to send one into the seats. Conversely, a slump might mean you should look elsewhere, even if the stats suggest otherwise.

Putting It All Together

You must mix all these ingredients to make the perfect home run prop pick. Start with the basics to see who’s in the mix, then use advanced metrics to narrow down your options. Finally, season with some contextual factors to find that perfect bite.

Remember, knowledge is power in baseball prop betting. So, make sure you do your homework but don’t forget to have some fun with it. After all, there’s nothing like the thrill of predicting a giant fly.

Now go out there and knock it out of the park.

Questions Of The Day