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NL East Quarterly Report Card

The National League East was projected to be a competitive and talented division and so far it has lived up to the hype. Four of the five teams were projected to be above .500, which can not be said of all divisions. A quarter into the season and it is still safe to say that each team has some sort of a playoff chance (even the Miami Marlins). The standings in the NL East have moved around through the first quarter but the Mets have been at the top as of late. Below we will take a look at the NL East, and how each team has performed versus their projections and expectations. What should we expect the rest of the way for this exciting division full of stars?

Note: All teams’ records should be a snapshot of where they stood at on May 16 so as to have the report at the exact quarter mark of the season.

Edwin Diaz of the New York Mets pitches in the ninth inning against the Atlanta Braves
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP

NL East Division

New York Mets

  • Projected Wins: 90
  • Actual Record: 18-16

Under new ownership, the New York Mets added shortstop Francisco Lindor this offseason, one of the most exciting and dynamic players in baseball, to an already deep roster. New York has big expectations for its season. The Mets were in first place in the NL East, there is a lot to be pleased about and some things that still need to be addressed.

First off, the health of their pitching staff, most notably Jacob deGrom. Secondly, the offensive production from Lindor has not lived up to the lucrative contract he signed before the start of the season.

Before he went to the injured list, deGrom looked sensational with an ERA below one. His recovery will be directly linked to the Mets’ long-term success. Other starters in their rotation like Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker have been reliable.

Ideally, their rotation will return to its intended form when Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco come back mid-summer. There are more questions with the offense, which for the most part has underachieved. Yes, injuries have plagued their lineup and guys like Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil are out. The Mets’ runs per game average is among the lowest in the majors. They will need the bats to get hot if they want to win close to 90 games and play deep into October.

The chances of the Mets getting over 90 wins is directly tied to how competitive the NL East stays. At this point, these teams are beating up on each other and their records reflect that. If every division series the Mets play is a dogfight, the Mets will not win more than 90 games.

However, that does not mean they won’t win the division. If you put a paycheck on New York to win the NL East, you are probably feeling good about your chances. If you put a paycheck on the Mets to win the World Series, you should still have some concerns.

Grade: B

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Projected Wins: 81½
  • Actual Record: 21-20

Some baseball minds were saying the Phillies did not do enough in the offseason and are just playing with the same team that missed the playoffs in 2020. That team’s struggles were mostly due to the Philadelphia bullpen, and the team addressed some of those holes in the offseason. Vince Velasquez and Jose Alvarado have both looked like solid relief options for the Phillies. Most importantly, their big relief acquisition Archie Bradley is set to return after dealing with an oblique injury. Let us wait and see if the bullpen will sink the Phillies again this season.

Philadelphia’s starting pitching has been a really exciting storyline so far this season with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin making up one of the top starting trio in baseball. If the Phillies do make the playoffs, having three strong starters is what you need in October.

Offensively, the Phillies have a good enough team batting average but you would not know it if you just watched a couple of their games. Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto have carried the offense to this point.

Realmuto has been great, hitting .294 and slugging .486, and Harper is hitting .307 and slugging .561. Philly is just not getting the one-through-eight lineup production they need to be in contention to win the division. If Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorius and Alec Bohm can contribute more steadily through the season, the Phillies will be hard to beat.

The Phillies should have a lighter road in the future as their schedule calms down from here on out. According to ESPN, the Phillies’ first quarter ranks ninth in the strength of schedule, the highest of any NL East team. Our “B” grade for Bryce Harper and the Phillies is based on them being in second place despite not everything clicking yet. Philadelphia is also exceeding oddsmakers expectations by being in second place in the NL East.

Grade: B

Atlanta Braves

  • Projected Wins: 91½
  • Actual Record: 19-21

The Atlanta Braves have been the biggest disappointment of any team in the National League. Atlanta has a losing record at home and has been swept by the Phillies and by the Toronto Blue Jays twice. Sure, they have dealt with some bad luck but no one in the Braves organization should be pleased with their current status at the first-quarter mark. The BetUS projection for this team was 91½ wins and that is looking next to impossible at this point.

Still, there have been some bright spots. Starting with Ronald Acuna Jr., who has been leading the MLB in home runs and has some of the best odds to win the NL MVP this year. If the others start helping Acuna Jr., like Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies, the Braves should be fine offensively. The issues still lie with pitching.

The Atlanta staff has allowed an average of 4.98 runs, which is fourth worst in the National League. He has had some minor Injuries but their supposed ace, Max Fried, has not looked good.

Their offseason addition of Charlie Morton has not been exceptional and who knows what Mike Soroka will look like when he returns. And then there is their bullpen, which ranks 24th in ERA. Josh Tomlin’s ERA is almost seven and Will Smith’s is almost five. Yes, they added Shane Greene recently for some help, but their relief holes seem larger than one guy.

Do not throw away your Braves jersey just yet. Atlanta still has time to turn things around and start to look like a playoff team but needs to do it soon. We will be keeping a close eye on the Braves pitching because it seems likely the bats will pick up.

Grade: D-

Miami Marlins

  • Projected Wins: 73½
  • Actual Record: 18-22

The oddsmakers all seemed to think the Miami Marlins were the weakest team in this competitive division and they might be right. But it is hard not to like this young Marlins team, who do have the best run differential in the division at the end of the first quarter.

The Marlins’ pitching staff is deeper and more talented than most realize as they have the seventh-best team ERA in the majors. Young starter Trevor Rogers is looking like a Cy Young candidate.

Their relief staff has been great too, guys like Yimi Garcia, Adam Cimber, and Dylan Floro have all punched way above their weight. Jesus Aguilar, Miguel Rojas and Adam Duvall have had nice seasons but their whole lineup just had not produced consistently. The Marlins just do not score enough, averaging just 3.93 runs per game.

According to ESPN, the Marlins have also had the 10th-hardest schedule so look for the rest of the season to be a bit more manageable. Will the Fish win more than 73½ games and make the playoffs? Probably not. But they have a lot of great pieces to build around, most notably, of course, rookie standout Jazz Chisholm, who is back in the lineup again after being out for a couple of weeks with a hamstring strain.

Grade: B

Washington Nationals

  • Projected Wins: 84½
  • Actual Record: 16-20

The Washington Nationals seem to be in a conundrum, as they sit in last place after the first quarter. They made offseason moves that would suggest they were ready to compete in the NL East and return to the World Series. They have some of the league’s biggest stars on both sides of the ball, but yet they are four games below .500 at the end of the first quarter.

What was the Nationals’ primary strength? Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, Juan Soto and Trea Turner. Scherzer has been fantastic, but Corbin has been a mixed bag. Soto has been great when healthy but he has been in and out of the lineup, while Turner has been fantastic.

After those four guys, it is hard to rely on this roster. Maybe Jon Lester can plug things up and Stephen Strasburg will be great when he returns, but that is a big maybe. Their bullpen is another issue altogether. Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell were brought in to help offensively. While Schwarber has had his moments, Bell has had next to none.

If you believe in the Nats, then you might like to know there is a ton of potential money to be made, they are currently +2800 to win the NL Pennant in the MLB Sportsbook. It seems like the baseball world was mixed on how much of a contender these Nationals were coming into the season but that seems to be answered.

They look like an aging roster in a competitive division with teams in much better shape. FanGraphs are currently giving the Nationals just over a nine percent chance of making the playoffs. If things do not improve for Washington, could they be sellers at the deadline and begin their rebuild early? Would they part with Scherzer if a team was willing to take on his contract? It certainly seems like a possibility, especially if the Nationals season continues in the trend it is going.

Grade: C

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