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Phillies vs Mets Series Picks and Predictions for Sept 2024

· Sep 18 - 6 minutes read

The Phillies have opened a near-insurmountable eight-game lead in the NL East.
The Mets are fighting for a Wild Card spot with the Braves, Padres, and Diamondbacks.
Check out BetUS Sportsbook for the best Phillies vs Mets betting odds.

This is the second time since the start of last week that the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will battle for position in the NL East. The only difference is that this time, the Mets are essentially out of the race, as they trail the Phillies by eight games with just 11 left on the schedule.

Phillies vs Mets Series Picks and Predictions for Sept 2024 — Luis Severino #40 of the New York Mets/Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP

Check the latest odds to win the National League at BetUS!

The Mets needed a three-game sweep last time to keep pace in the division. Instead, they went 1-2 after crushing Philly 11-3 in the series opener.

At this point, the Mets are, at best, a Wild Card team. They are 2.5 games behind the San Diego Padres for the top WC spot and tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second. The Atlanta Braves are 2 games behind them, which should make for a very interesting final couple of weeks of the season.

The Mets have historically crumbled around this point of the year but are 6-4 in their last 10 games and could actually come through for their fans for once.

The Phillies haven’t clinched yet, so expect them to keep their foot down until that happens. They have a pitching advantage and should walk away with another series win against their division rivals. Philly’s MLB odds are +225 to win the National League, with only the Los Angeles Dodgers (+175) having shorter odds.

Let’s take a look at what this series will look like at BetUS Sportsbook.

Phillies vs Mets Series Betting Breakdown

Game 1: Taijuan Walker vs Luis Severino

The opening tilt of this series is the only one where the Mets have a clear advantage on the mound, with Luis Severino (10-6, 3.77) facing off against Taijuan Walker (3-6, 6.29). Walker’s last time

out, he lasted just three innings against the Mets, though, to his credit, he didn’t give up an earned run. He did give up three hits and failed to record a strikeout. Walker has become a shell of hi

former self, which, if I’m honest, wasn’t that great. He’s made it out of the third inning just once in his last five starts, and I expect this game to be handed to the Phillies bullpen early. I’m not a

huge fan of Severino, but he’s been very good this month, with a 2.29 ERA. He also pitched a solid game against Philly last week, allowing three earned runs over six innings while

striking out five.

“I feel healthy, it’s easy to compete when you feel healthy.”

Luis Severino credits the Mets organization, the training staff & pitching coach Jeremy Hefner for his success in Queens.
pic.twitter.com/vhGK7KjC8k

— Metsmerized Online (@Metsmerized) September 17, 2024

Game 2: Cristopher Sanchez vs David Peterson

Game 2 might make some MLB news as it looks to be the best pitching duel of the weekend, with Cristopher Sanchez (10-9, 3.24) and David Peterson (9-2, 2.85) facing off. I will give Sanchez a

slight edge here, as he’s having a fantastic run toward the playoffs with a 1.35 ERA in three September starts. Sanchez also shut down the Mets last week with one earned run over seven innings of

work. He struck out 7 and walked just 1 in that game. Peterson pitched against him in that game and had an equally good game, allowing just one earned run over 7 ⅔ innings while striking out 7 and walking 1. I see no reason to expect anything different on Friday and will be leaning to the Under in Game 2.

Game 3: Ranger Suarez vs Sean Manaea

Ranger Suarez (12-7, 3.13) was one of the biggest surprises among starting pitchers this season, but his production has dipped in recent weeks. Actually, recent months is more accurate. Despite

his sparkling stat line, Suarez’s ERA was 6.61 in July, 5.00 in August, and 4.11 in September. He’s just 2-5 in that span and looks nothing like the Cy Young candidate he was considered in June.

Sean Manaea (11-5, 3.26) is in the opposite boat. After starting the season a bit shaky, he’s pitched phenomenally lately, with a 1.98 ERA this month and over four starts. I want to make an

MLB pick on the Mets here, but Manaea has been awful against the current Phillies lineup, with a .357 average and 7 home runs in 70 at-bats. The Over might be the best bet here.

Ranger Suarez just turned 28, he’s under team control for the next two seasons, and he’s projected to only make $4.7 million in arbitration next season.

Give Ranger a mini-extension around the ballpark of 4-years, $50 million. He deserves it. pic.twitter.com/Z5PPAO3pad

— Philly Nation (@Philly__Nation) October 26, 2023

Game 4: Zack Wheeler vs Undecided

This game is an easy one to call as of Wednesday. Zack Wheeler (16-6, 2.56) has been one of the best arms in the NL this season, ranking 2nd in wins, 3rd in ERA and WHIP, and 5th in strikeouts.

His ERA this month is a microscopic 1.89, and he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a game since July. The Mets, meanwhile, will have to call somebody up or send one of their bullpen

guys out for a spot start. Unless Wheeler has his first bad start in months, expect the Phillies to end this series on a high note with a win.

Key Players to Target for Player Prop Bets

Here are a few names and relevant stats to consider for MLB prop betting in the Mets vs Phillies series:

Pete Alonso (Mets): Alonso has seen a slight power surge recently with two home runs in his last five games, including one in Game 1 of the last series against the Phillies.
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): Mr. Schwarbomb continues to rake in September, with a .364 average and 7 home runs in 55 at-bats. Whenever he is hitting for average and power, he’s wortha look in the prop market.

Bet on the Phillies vs Mets Series at BetUS