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NL West Quarterly Report Card

Three National League West teams have decent odds to win the NL pennant. The Los Angeles Dodgers are +150, the San Diego Padres +450 and the San Francisco Giants +1800.

No serious baseball thinker would frown at you for putting money on any of these teams. Oh the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies are also in the division. Now that we are a quarter in, let’s have a look under the hood of these five teams.

MLB Regular Season Wins Divisional News
Dylan Buell/Getty Images/AFP

Note:All teams’ records should be a snapshot of where they stood at the end of May 16.

NL West Division

San Francisco Giants

Projected Wins: 75½

Actual Record: 24-16

Looking back on it now, putting money on the over at 75½ games seems obvious but congrats to those that did see that opportunity. The Giants look very likely to win at least 76 games. In fact, to the amazement of most, the Giants were in first place in the division at the end of the first quarter of the season.

The reasons for their success are not that obvious, though. Yes, Evan Longoria is slugging .420 and he boasts a 117 OPS+. And, yes, Brandon Crawford might hit 40 home runs.

But the Giants do not lead the league in a ton of offensive stats, the way you would think a first-place team might. For example, their team batting average is below league average, their total runs scored is below league average and their team OBP is only slightly above league average. The stats suggest much more of their success comes from their pitching.

The Giants’ staff has allowed the second-fewest amount of runs per game (3.37) in the majors. They have the third-best team ERA in the majors, at 3.17, behind none other than the Dodgers and the Padres.

As Maria Guardado pointed out on MLB.com, the Giants’ starting staff has been fantastic but their biggest hole has become their bullpen, which now had 12 blown saves. Guys like Matt Wisler, Jake McGee, Camilo Doval and Jarlin García have all struggled recently, despite mostly looking good early in the season.

San Francisco can not rely on Tyler Rogers, who has been spectacular, to carry their bullpen the whole season. If they stay in the race for the division but the bullpen does not improve drastically, will they go get some relievers at the trade deadline? It will be interesting to see.

Based on how good the Dodgers and Padres are, it is hard to imagine the Giants remaining in first place the whole season. Some baseball experts are not buying this Giants team at all.

If they have slipped to third place in the division by the trade deadline, are they going to be buyers or sellers? FanGraphs now has the Giants projected to win 84 games after one quarter of play.

That’s almost 10 more games than BetUs had projected them winning at the start of the season. No matter where their record ends up, you have to appreciate the way the Giants came out of the gate in this first quarter and surprised everyone. A-plus for effort, no question about it.

Grade: A+

San Diego Padres

Projected Wins: 95½

Actual Record: 24-17

The Padres were busy this offseason, most notably adding two ace starting pitchers in Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. The San Diego pitching staff is now elite. Through the first quarter, the Padres have allowed the fewest number of runs per game in the majors with 3.14.

Their staff has the lowest team ERA in the majors at 2.67 and it is not even close, with the next best being their division-rival Dodgers at 3.03. And to add a cherry on top, the Padres’ staff leads the majors in strikeouts.

Speaking of the offseason, we have to mention that the Padres did formally lock in Fernando Tatis Jr. for the long haul with a 14-year contract, making him the face of their franchise.

He has already been sensational and it’s probably not a terrible idea to put money down on Tatis for NL MVP. He is currently +450. Or if you are really buying the Padres, roll the dice and put money down on Manny Machado, who is +3000 and finished third in NL MVP voting last year.

As far as who they lost, it was really just relief pitcher Trevor Rosenthal, but they added Mark Melancon as their closer. He is now leading baseball in saves, so no major concern there. The Padres have had some health concerns, however.

Tatis had what looked like a season-ending injury but he rehabbed much faster than anyone expected. More recently, several players on the roster have been sidelined with COVID-19, including key pieces like Tatis, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar.

Given their setbacks, being in second place in the division is totally understandable. But their B grade is on their own metrics. Because San Diego is so talented and deep, its ceiling is winning the division, the NL Pennant and going to the World Series. I think the players and certainly the Padres front office want to be in first place, so they are technically playing below their potential and expectations.

Grade: B+

Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected Wins: 103½

Actual Record: 22-18

Surely, the Los Angeles Dodgers would like to be higher in the win column, but they have dealt with a lot of injuries. World Series MVP Corey Seager just went to the injured list with a fractured hand. Rising star and the fifth piece of the starting rotation, Dustin May, is out for the season undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Cody Bellinger only played the first few games. David Price was only available for a few games, etc. etc. Most rational people would agree the Dodgers could continue to figure it out, stay at a healthy trajectory and eventually finish with around 94 wins. Or they could get super hot, only lose four games in a two-month stretch and get back to that 104 projection.

If you have put money down on the Dodgers, fear not and always look at starting pitching. Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias are again performing at an elite level. With the addition of 2020 Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, their starting pitching has been fantastic. The staff on the whole is second in the majors in team ERA, trailing the Padres.

It is easy to root against the defending champion Dodgers when they are playing your team or you are looking at their roster. But just because they are currently in third place in the NL West, does not mean they are out of anything. Oddsmakers still have the Dodgers with the best odds of winning the World Series at +275.

If you don’t agree, please don’t hesitate to put your money elsewhere and try to win big. Their C+ grade should indicate they have by no means hurt their chances of defending their world championship but have definitely seemed mortal at various points this season.

Grade: C+

Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected Wins: 76½

Actual Record: 18-23

The Arizona Diamondbacks are sitting more or less where all the projections had them – in fourth place in the NL West. If you put money on them winning over 76½ games, you might be slightly concerned. They have had some great moments but they are going to lose a lot more games to the Dodgers, Giants and Padres.

David Peralta has been great for the Diamondbacks, leading the team in batting average at .263. Third basemen Eduardo Escobar leads the team in home runs (10) and OBP (.325) but as a team, they have not produced offensively. Arizona ranks below league average in team OBP at .309 and team batting average at .229.

The pitching staff is interesting. They got off to a rough start but have pitched well through the month of May, with a collective 3.42 ERA. In his last five starts, Madison Bumgarner is 4-1 with a no-hitter, a 0.90 ERA and 34 strikeouts. It would be great to see him mentor and help develop some of Arizona’s great young talent.

We should really be using the pass or fail grading system for the Diamondbacks and not “A” through “F” system. What does Arizona need to do to pass this class? Do not come in last place in the division. Also, you can check The NFL Combine.

As long as Arizona does not slip below the Rockies, 2021 will have been a success. And it looks like the Diamondbacks are going to pass. This is where we expected them. This is where they should be.

Grade: C

Colorado Rockies

Projected Wins: 63½

Actual Record: 15-26

If you put any money down on the Rockies winning 63 games or less, you might win some well-deserved cash on that bet. Because in 2021, it pays to underestimate and devalue everything about the Rockies. 

There is no reason to think anything will improve, In fact, with many reasons to think the Rockies’ season will only get worse, your betting dollars are safe continuing to put money on their continued demise. The only stat worth mentioning that might help with your Rockies bets? Colorado is actually a .500 team against non-NL West teams.

The “F” grade here is for the Colorado front office and executive team, not for the players. Franchise player Nolan Arenado is now playing his home games in St. Louis. Next time we write one of the quarter reports, the Rockies’ other franchise player, Trevor Story, could be playing his home games in another uniform.

Charlie Blackmon has had moments but isn’t having a great year. Aside from Raimel Tapia, the Rockies’ super exciting young left-fielder who is leading the team in batting average, there is really nothing to be excited about.

Grade: F

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