Astros’ Early Edge? Arrighetti’s Upside Makes F5 Bet a Savvy Choice

With Houston’s superior offense and Arrighetti’s potential for a comeback, betting on the Astros at +120 could be your ticket to a winning wager. Get ready for a thrilling ride as we break down why this bet is worth your while

Astros F5 ML +120 vs Mariners

It’s time to roll the dice and give Spencer Arrighetti a shot at cashing F5 inning bets for us. Sure, backing him might feel like betting on a Jackass cast member to win an Oscar, but hear me out. This guy has some serious underlying metrics that make it hard to pass up against Seattle.

Despite his bloated 6.93 ERA over eight starts, Arrighetti’s 3.90 FIP in 37.2 innings paints a different picture. This pitcher has been as unlucky as a black cat on Friday the 13th under a ladder, victimized by a .394 BABIP and a 62.5% strand rate. These numbers should regress to the MLB averages of .286 and 71.8%, respectively. So, he’s due for some good luck, right?

Spencer Arrighetti, Wicked 80mph Sweeper. 🤢

7th K pic.twitter.com/bC7bZrf1eP

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 25, 2024

Arrighetti’s swing-and-miss game is still solid, ranking in the 62nd percentile in whiff rate (26.7%) and the 65th percentile in strikeout rate (24.3%). And guess what? The Mariners lead the majors in strikeout rate and are 23rd in wRC+. Seattle is batting a measly .187 in the series with a 32.4% strikeout rate.

HOME RUN!

Spencer Arrighetti has the LOWEST FIP among Astros SP.

Article that will include this fact in progress. https://t.co/njnpZjlqGQ pic.twitter.com/wOLFo9BPwS

— Larry TheGM (@LarryTheGMman) May 29, 2024

Arrighetti’s fastball might not be breaking the sound barrier, and his offspeed pitches aren’t setting any records. Still, he’s managed a respectable strikeout rate, even with his command struggles (11.3% walk rate). Scouts think his command could settle into league-average territory, like saying he might finally stop pitching like he’s auditioning for a role in “Major League 4: Mission vs. Mariners.”

Now, let’s talk about offense. Houston has struggled at the plate in this series, but they’re still the better offensive team by a mile compared to Seattle. With Arrighetti’s metrics suggesting he’s more of a No. 4 starter than a replacement-level arm, the Astros‘ probability of exiting the first five frames with a lead is higher than the market suggests.

So, place your bet on the Astros’ first five innings at +120 odds. If Arrighetti can channel his inner ace and the Mariners keep swinging at air, we might hit the jackpot.

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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