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Astros vs Mariners Predictions: Take Home Underdog

· Sep 27 - 3 minutes read

The most exciting division race in the American League features the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners. The Rangers have a leg up with a 2.5-game lead on the Astros and three-game cushion on the Mariners. Even better for the Rangers, the Astors and Mariners split games in their series and aren’t gaining any ground on Texas.

The rubber match on Wednesday will give one team a shot to catch Texas while the loser will need a miracle to catch up before the end of the weekend.

Astros vs Mariners Predictions: Take Home Underdog

The Astros vs Mariners odds list Houston as favored, with Framber Valdez on the bump, while Seattle and Bryce Miller are underdogs.

Pitchers Heading in Different Directions

Wednesday’s starters have similar season stats but are on divergent paths as their teams fight for the last playoff spot. Valdez is pitching better than ever since June while Miller is having his worst month of 2023.

Miller’s ERA is an ugly 5.49 in four September starts, with a 2-2 record in those 19⅔ innings. Even worse, the Mariners are 0-4 against the MLB spread in his last four trips to the mound. It’s a stark contrast from the 4-1 record Seattle had in Miller’s final five starts of August.

As for Valdez, he appears to have regained his form after posting an absurd 7.29 ERA in July. In his defense, the ERA may be slightly inflated after allowing 11 runs in two starts against Texas and the Los Angeles Angels. But any way you slice it, July could have been better for Valdez. He improved in August and even more in September, with a 3.42 ERA and a 2-2 record.

The stats tell one story, but if we look deeper, there is more to the tale of Valdez and Miller that makes Astros vs Mariners predictions more difficult.

For one thing, three of Valdez’s last four starts came against two of the worst offenses in the MLB, with two games against the Royals and one against the Athletics. While a 3.42 ERA is better than he was doing, it’s not a great figure to post against such weak offenses.

Bryce Miller at home: 3.34 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 62 K, 15 BB, 70 innings in 13 starts

Bryce Miller vs Houston (2 starts): 0.00 ERA, 0.487 WHIP, 4 hits, 7 K, 2 BB in 12 innings

Who knows how tonight goes, but at least with those numbers you should feel decent entering the matchup.

— Brandon Gustafson (@TheBGustafson) September 27, 2023

While Miller has a rough month, he has impressive numbers against the current Astros lineup, with a .105 average with four hits allowed in 38 plate appearances.

The Astros vs Mariners lines suggest Houston is the team to beat here, but for my money, Seattle has the advantage on the mound and is worth a flier as MLB betting underdogs.

MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners (+108)