Dodgers in 2-0 Hole vs Braves
Buehler Must Show Up for Los Angeles in Game 3 of NLCS
The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a world of trouble. After brutal walk-off losses in Games 1 and 2 of the National League Championship Series against the Atlanta Braves, the Dodgers are down 2-0 as the series shifts to Los Angeles for the next three games (if necessary). Game 3 at Dodger Stadium is Tuesday at 5:08 p.m. ET with Walker Buehler expected to start for the Dodgers against Braves right-hander Charlie Morton.
Sunday’s Game 2 ended with a similar result as Saturday’s series opener, but it had a much different feel. The Dodgers jumped on the board immediately, leading 2-0 on a Corey Seager two-run homer before recording an out in the top of the first inning against Ian Anderson. Max Scherzer, pitching on short rest just a few days after getting the save to close out the San Francisco Giants in the NLDS, didn’t give up much until the fourth inning, when he walked Austin Riley and gave up a two-run laser beam home run to former Dodger Joc Pederson to tie the game at 2.
Los Angeles went up again in the seventh on a two-run Chris Taylor double, but that lead was short-lived. Dave Roberts made the curious decision to use presumptive Game 4 starter Julio Urías in the eighth and he gave up a pair of runs to tie the score entering the ninth. The Braves struck again in the ninth when Eddie Rosario ripped a hard grounder that ate up Corey Seager, allowing Dansby Swanson to score the winning run.
The BetUS sportsbook has the Dodgers as -180 moneyline favorites while the Braves are +160. Current MLB lines have the over/under at 7½ runs.
Buehler Will Come Through In Big Spot
With their backs up against the wall, the Dodgers couldn’t be putting their faith in a much more reliable big-game pitcher than Buehler. He was an All-Star this season and posted a 2.47 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP while making a league-high 33 starts, not to mention having a career 2.50 postseason ERA. Since 2018, opposing batters have a .204 batting average and .596 OPS against him. It doesn’t get much better than that.
Buehler was great against the Braves in the 2020 NLCS, holding Atlanta to one run across 11 innings in two starts, and he shut down the Tampa Bay Rays in his one World Series start. This postseason, he pitched fine against the Giants in Game 1 of the NLDS (6.1 innings and three runs) and was even better in Game 4, although he was taken out with one out in the fifth.
The moral of the story is that Buehler has a lot of big-game experience and is pitching on six days’ rest. He was originally lined up to start Game 2 but the Dodgers chose to go with Scherzer instead, to mixed results. Buehler will be ready to go for Game 3 and will give Los Angeles a great chance to win.
So, you should take the Dodgers on the runline if you’re betting online and want some value. It also helps that Buehler was a full run better at home this season than he was on the road (2.05 ERA at Dodger Stadium). He’ll be comfortable at Chavez Ravine and will succeed against a Braves team that, overall, hasn’t hit that well in the playoffs and has been benefiting from well-timed hits with runners in scoring position.
Morton Can Be Solved
Morton is also a very reliable arm who has been good this postseason with a 3.86 ERA across two starts against the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS. He has been solid in recent playoff appearances as well, despite his five-run outing in last year’s World Series against the Dodgers. He struck out 10.5 batters per nine innings in the regular season and had a sparkling 1.045 WHIP, mostly thanks to a .203 opponent batting average.
His bugaboo can be controlled, however, as he walked nearly three batters per nine innings this season and tends to issue enough free passes to make it difficult for him to go deep into games from time to time. That issue will be on center stage on Tuesday night against a Dodgers team that walks a lot and doesn’t chase bad pitches. They’ll be able to work the count as they try to force Atlanta manager Brian Snitker to go to his bullpen — which isn’t especially deep — earlier than he would like.
All the Dodgers need to do, with Buehler on the mound, is knock Morton out after five or so innings so they can face Braves relievers other than Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, or Will Smith, who have been heavily relied upon thus far in the postseason and have delivered.
The MLB playoff odds acknowledge that Los Angeles should win this game, based on the matchup, the home-field advantage, and the desperation that a team down 2-0 has to play with. As far as MLB picks go, ride with Los Angeles and the value that comes with the Dodgers’ runline.
