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Bank on Cease, Fade Hudson, Lugo in Monday’s Best MLB Player Props

We have an exciting schedule of MLB games to kick things off Monday. I hope you weren’t too busy with backyard BBQs and had time to witness some excellent baseball over the weekend. The Mets and Phillies put on a show in London. Meanwhile, the Dodgers and Yankees re-ignited their longtime rivalry in front of three consecutive electric sellout crowds.

It may not seem like it, but we’re already approaching the regular season’s halfway point. We continue to learn about each team, and our consistently accurate MLB picks, boasting a 10-4 record in June with our MLB player props, are here to deliver. Rest assured, I’m eager to carry that momentum into Monday!

Monday’s Best MLB Player Props
Dylan Cease #84 - Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

 


June 10 is a travel day for most teams, so we have seven games on tonight’s schedule. Plenty of options exist for MLB player prop bets today, but I’ve done the hard work of narrowing down the best for you based on specific criteria or analysis. Get ready for an exciting day of MLB action!

 

Best MLB Player Props Today

Padres SP Dylan Cease at Least 8 Strikeouts (-173)

Last Friday, I reminded you that we have death, taxes, and firing up the starting pitcher against the Oakland Athletics. The San Diego Padres will send 28-year-old righty Dylan Cease to the mound against the A’s tonight. Cease, who was traded to San Diego this offseason, had a stellar 2022 season, finishing second in Cy Young voting with a terrific 2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts in 184 innings, but he struggled a bit in 2023.

Cease has been strong to start 2024 and is having a bounce-back campaign with his new squad. He has a 121 Stuff+, which is the third-best in the league. He has made 13 starts this season, finishing with at least eight strikeouts in five. Cease is in the 93rd percentile in Whiff % and 88th in K %. I’m sipping the juice here in case he lands on 8 Ks again. You can take the plus money at 8½, which he has eclipsed twice in his last six starts.

Last season, he pitched twice against Oakland and struggled, but in his lone start in 2022 against the A’s, he finished with nine strikeouts. We backed Cease in his last outing but lost by the hook. However, we would have cashed if it wasn’t for a catcher interference call.

We have seen at least one pitcher in nine consecutive series finish with at least eight strikeouts against the A’s. Over the last month, 12 of 27 (44%) starting pitchers have finished with at least eight strikeouts against Oakland. Kevin Gausman (10), George Kirby (9), Reynaldo Lopez (8), Zack Littell (9), Justin Verlander (9), Cal Quantrill (8), Brady Singer (9), Seth Lugo (10), Cristian Javier (8), Framber Valdez (8) Luis Castillo (8) and Bryce Miller (9) all hit that number.

The A’s had the most strikeouts in MLB over the last 30 days. Oakland has the second-highest K% and the highest WHIFF% in MLB. The Athletics have the second-most strikeouts in MLB, behind only the Seattle Mariners. I’m counting on Cease and expect him to climb to at least eight strikeouts.

 

Rockies SP Dakota Hudson Over 2½ Earned Runs (-130)

The Colorado Rockies begin a three-game set and continue a seven-game road trip tonight in Minnesota. The Rockies own one of the worst records in MLB (23-42), and the Twins (34-31) are showing signs they can be a playoff team in the American League. Colorado will send veteran righty Dakota Hudson to the bump tonight. He is off to a terrible start to his season with a 5.25 ERA and a sky-high 1.52 WHIP.

Hudson has exceeded 2½ earned runs in seven of 12 starts this season, including his previous outing against the Reds, in which he pitched just 4.1 innings and gave up four earned runs on five hits! The Twinkies’ offense has struggled over the last month, but they are finally healthy with Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis in the starting lineup. Minnesota is coming off an explosion in extra innings against Pittsburgh, where it scored seven runs in the 10th inning. I think they carry that momentum against a poor Rockies club.

Hudson is in the bottom-15 percentile in nearly every single significant pitching category. Hudson has fallen off a cliff, ranking dead last in strikeout rate over the previous three seasons among all qualified starters. Hudson has struggled against lefties (.286 BAA). Twins manager Rocco Baldelli can deploy a plethora of lefty bats with guys like Max Kepler, Carlos Santana and Trevor Larnach at his disposal. Hudson’s struggles will continue tonight.

 

 

Royals SP Seth Lugo Over 5½ Hits Allowed (-143)

This bet has been an excellent way to back the Yankees this season. I’m going right back to the Bronx Bombers tonight when they begin a four-game set in Kansas City. Aaron Judge and the Yankees have been on a tear. Despite dropping two of three against the Dodgers this weekend, New York has the best record in the American League and has won 13 of its last 17! The Yankees have a +111 run differential, the best mark in the bigs.

 

The Yanks will take on the Royals, one of the most surprising teams. They have an excellent young core led by Bobby Witt Jr., who has exploded onto the scene in 2024. The Royals will send 34-year-old right-hander Seth Lugo to the mound in the series opener.

Lugo has been a revelation in his ninth big league season. He has made 13 starts this season and allowed at least six hits in six, including three of his last four outings. He owns a 2.13 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Lugo will be looking to join Ranger Suarez as the second pitcher to reach 10 wins this season.

The Yankees appeared to have survived an injury scare last week with superstar Juan Soto. He sat out the series over the weekend with the Dodgers, but all reports suggest he will return to the lineup for the Yankees against the Royals. Lugo’s opponent’s batting average is .214, but his xBA is .242.

The Yankees have the highest OPS in the league against right-handed pitchers (.794), the third-highest batting average (.260), and have a 135 wRC+ over the last month versus righties, which is 15 points clear of the second-best team! The Yankees have at least six hits against 10 of the last 13 starters. I’m rolling with the Yankees again against the team they have dominated for years.

 

 

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

 

Questions of the Day

What is the best MLB player prop bet today?


I like San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease to finish with at least 8 strikeouts against the Oakland Athletics.

Who is the best MLB team on the run line this season?


The Baltimore Orioles are the most profitable team on the run line, going 39-25 and hitting 60.9% of the time.

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