Best MLB Player Props 7/29: Pivetta, Bibee Top Picks Today
- Our MLB player props have been a consistent source of wins, boasting an impressive 120-96 record this season.
- Today, we’re setting our sights on Nick Pivetta, Tanner Bibee, and the Diamondbacks lineup, which features the red-hot Ketel Marte.
- See the MLB odds, pitchers, and best player prop bets today at the BetUS Sportsbook.
As we kick off the week, Monday night promises an exciting schedule of MLB games. With the trade deadline looming and the potential for blockbuster transactions, the next 48 hours are sure to be filled with anticipation and excitement. I foresee multiple trades shaking up the league landscape and adding an element of chaos to the Wild Card races.
Last month, our MLB picks went 37-18, and as we roll through July and the second half of the season, our overall record stands at 120-96 after another profitable day with our MLB picks on Friday. I’m eager to continue our success the rest of the way, and I’m sure you are too.
I have meticulously analyzed the options for MLB player prop bets today. Based on specific criteria, my thorough analysis ensures you have all the information you need for an exciting day of MLB action, making you feel well-informed and ready to make your bets.
Best MLB Player Prop Today
1. Red Sox SP Nick Pivetta 7+ Strikeouts (-154)
Nick Pivetta, 95mph Elevated ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/a2SAvrkUP5
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 20, 2024
We backed Nick Pivetta in his last outing at Coors Field, and somehow, he came through for us despite a debacle of a day. I’ll chalk it up to his pitch movement disappearing in the thin air of Colorado. He returns home to Fenway and will face the Seattle Mariners. I’m on board with trusting the 31-year-old right-hander who made the move from the bullpen to the starting rotation one year ago last July.
Pivetta has made 16 starts this season and has a 4.50 ERA (3.68 xERA) and a 1.18 WHIP. He has finished with at least seven Ks in eight outings. He has a 127 Stuff+ and 109 Pitching+ rating, which is the highest in MLB among starting pitchers!
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Since moving to the starting rotation last summer, he ranks fourth in the league in strikeout rate among starters. His pitch arsenal of velocity and movement is comparable to that of Trevor Bauer and Justin Verlander in the 2018 season, where each was a finalist in AL Cy Young voting! I’m willing to trust him against a Seattle lineup that’s been mediocre this season.
The Mariners were among the first teams to make a splash when they acquired Randy Arozarena from the Rays, but they are still striking out at an insane clip. Seattle has struck out the most in MLB and is on pace to break the record for the highest K rate in a season! They have the third-highest Whiff % and the highest K %.
Nick Pivetta’s 8 Consecutive Strikeouts. 😯 pic.twitter.com/sd1Ikb9ucf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 30, 2024
Boston’s bullpen was abused over the weekend in their series with the Yankees so Alex Cora will look for some length out of Pivetta. He has exceeded this line in eight of ten starts where he threw at least 5 innings! I expect Pivetta to punch out at least seven Mariners today. Include him in your MLB player prop bets tonight.
Bet On Nick Pivetta 7+ Strikeouts (-154)
2. Guardians SP Tanner Bibee 6+ Strikeouts (-113)
This line is a gift and is one strikeout short of what I project. The Cleveland Guardians continue to churn out terrific arms. Tanner Bibee was highly consistent in his rookie year last season, allowing three earned runs or less in 16 straight starts. He finished last season with a 2.98 ERA. He struggled to start 2024, but he’s turned things around. The 25-year-old right-hander is 8-4 with a 3.50 ERA (3.38 xERA) and a 27.6% K% (12th-highest in MLB).
Since May 1, Bibee has been in the top ten in K/9, among the likes of Tyler Glasnow, Garrett Crochet, Dylan Cease, Tarik Skubal, and Chris Sale. We’re getting a slight discount because of his last two starts. Against the Padres, who strike out the fewest in the league, and his previous outing against Detroit was cut short due to cramps.
Something’s not quite right.
Starting pitcher Tanner Bibee struggled through his warmup routine before the sixth inning and was lifted by @CleGuardians manager Stephen Vogt.#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/CHROJTbShw
— Bally Sports Cleveland (@BallySportsCLE) July 25, 2024
Bibee has a 101 Stuff+ this season, inside the top 30 in MLB among qualified pitchers. His underlying metrics back this up. He is in the 59th percentile in Whiff % and 81st in K %. He’s the ace of the Cleveland staff and has been flying under the radar.
He finished with 8 strikeouts on July 10 in his last healthy start against Detroit. For my MLB betting pick, I’ll gladly take the discount. Bibee has an opportunity to post a terrific line against the Tigers—Bank on Bibee again tonight.
Bet on Tanner Bibee 6+ Strikeouts (-113)
Tanner Bibee, Nasty 87mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/Zqok8Xde4m
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 24, 2024
Take A Look At These Other 2 MLB Special Articles
- MLB Player Prop Bets 7/30: Bank on Robbie, Bobby, and Brown With Today’s Top 3 Picks.
- Don’t Miss Out! NRFI and YRFI Best Bets for July 29, 2024.
3. Nationals SP Mitchell Parker 3+ Earned Runs (-129)
The Arizona Diamondbacks are heating up, winning 16 of their last 24 overall. The defending NL champs have a terrific matchup to do damage in the series opener against the Washington Nationals. Washington will send 24-year-old rookie southpaw Mitchell Parker to the mound. Parker is an exciting young arm, but I expect Arizona to produce at home against the left-hander.
Parker has a 4.34 ERA (4.33 xERA) and a 1.21 WHIP inflated after his last two outings. In his previous start, he allowed 6 earned on 7 hits in just 3 innings against the Padres. Before the All-Star break, he had a blow-up start against the Brewers, failing to make it out of the first inning after giving up 5 runs on 3 hits. Often, I like to believe in bounce-back and go contrarian, but I’m expecting the struggles to continue against Arizona.
Parker has allowed at least 3 earned runs in four of his last six starts. The young lefty has typically thrown deep into games, enabling Arizona more chances to climb over this line.
Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte go yard to open up a lead for the @Dbacks. 💪 pic.twitter.com/Anib6Zockt
— MLB (@MLB) July 28, 2024
Arizona’s record (55-51) isn’t up to par with how the Diamondbacks have performed at the plate. They still have one of the most talented lineups in MLB and are dangerous at Chase Field. The reigning National League champs will produce today against the left-hander at home, where they have scored the fourth-most runs in baseball. Ketel Marte is having another terrific season. He is flying under the radar and leading this team, batting .342 over the last month.
Arizona has the second-highest batting average against southpaws this season at .275 and has scored the most runs against lefties in MLB. Over the last month, the D-Backs have been in the top five in nearly every offensive category, and that remains true when they are at home in the desert. Count on the Snakes to get the job done for us.
As always, make sure to check the latest MLB news before placing your bets!
Bet On Mitchell Parker 3+ Earned Runs (-129)
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
Questions of the Day
What is the best MLB player prop bet today?
I like Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta to finish with over six strikeouts against the Mariners.
Which is the best MLB team on the run line this season?
The Kansas City Royals and Washington Nationals are the most profitable teams on the run line, going 59-47.
