Best MLB Player Props Today 9/16: Fade Southpaws Fried, Boyd

Our record stands at 168-132 after a 1-1 day with our last Friday picks. I’m eager to continue our success the rest of the way, and I’m sure you are too! Two weeks remain in the regular season, and I aim to capitalize on every opportunity left.

I have meticulously analyzed the options for MLB player prop bets today. Based on specific criteria, my thorough analysis ensures you have all the information you need for an exciting day of MLB action, making you feel well-informed and ready to make your bets.

2 Best MLB Player Props 9/16

1. Guardians SP Matthew Boyd Over 1½ Earned Runs

The Twins are clinging to the final AL Wild Card spot and begin a massive four-game set with the Guardians. Cleveland holds a 6.5-game lead in the AL Central over the Twins and 4 games ahead of the Royals entering Monday.

We’re headed to Progressive Field with our first MLB pick for today. The Twins have their backs against the wall and will face veteran left-hander Matthew Boyd in this series opener against the Cleveland Guardians.

Boyd will be making his seventh start after signing with Cleveland this season. He is coming off a 13-month absence after recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s exhibited positive signs in his six appearances, but a date with the Twins could be difficult.

Byron Buxton ties it for the @Twins with a solo shot. 🚀 pic.twitter.com/5JiyyxgOvt

— MLB (@MLB) September 14, 2024

The Twins lineup recently received a massive boost with the return of Byron Buxton on Friday and Carlos Correa on Saturday. Before their injuries in August and July, Minnesota was third in wRC+ and batting average against left-handers this season! The Twinkies come into tonight seventh in wRC+ and sixth in batting average against southpaws.

The Twins have activated Carlos Correa from the IL pic.twitter.com/F2vgIvYL2V

— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) September 14, 2024

The Guardians‘ pitching staff has been terrific in 2024, but the back end of their rotation is due for regression. Boyd’s advanced metrics suggest he has been pretty strong in his return from Tommy John, but I’m fading him in this spot. In 2023, before the injury, Boyd was in the 46th percentile in xERA and 49th in xBA. In his last healthy season in 2021, he was roughly the same.

We’re getting a great number here on Boyd to allow at least two earned. Fire up the Twins ahead of this exciting series.

For my first MLB prediction, I’m trusting Minnesota to produce.

Bet on Matthew Boyd Over 1½ Earned Runs (-167)

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2. Braves SP Max Fried Over 2½ Earned Runs

Atlanta will send 30-year-old southpaw Max Fried to the mound in the series finale of this four-game set with the Dodgers. Fried is one of my favorite pitchers to watch, but I’m fading him tonight. Fried will make his 27th start of the season, but he hasn’t been the pitcher we have grown accustomed to seeing.

The lefty has been phenomenal for most of his first eight seasons in the bigs. He is a true front-end rotation arm. Unfortunately, his 2023 season was littered with injuries, and this arm issue is usually a sign of bad things to come. He has a 3.46 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. In his previous start against the Dodgers on May 5, he allowed 4 earned on 4 hits in 7 innings on the road.

Since 2019, when Fried became a full-time starter, he has been a top-30 pitcher in baseball. So why am I fading him? Fried has allowed at least 3 earned runs in five of eight starts since returning from the IL. Fried typically throws deep into games. Before his injury-riddled 2023, Fried had thrown the 19th-most total innings between 2019 and 2022. He’s doing it again in 2024.

Mookie Betts makes the Braves pay after Atlanta intentionally walked Shohei Ohtani! pic.twitter.com/TdJjufrApY

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 16, 2024

Los Angeles has one of the most talented lineups in MLB history. They have the third-highest batting average against southpaws this season at .266 and the second-highest OPS (.784) against lefties. Fried has struggled with his command since coming off the IL. The Dodgers will be patient as they have the third-highest BB% in the league.

When Mookie Betts was out of the lineup, the Dodgers offense struggled; however, they have quietly been on fire since Betts returned. The Dodgers are starting to get healthy at the right time and appear poised for another World Series run.

Fried is in the 34th percentile in xBA and 59th in xERA! He is still managing to get soft contact, but this Dodgers lineup should be able to push three runs across the plate against him.

The lineup is a different beast with Betts back at the top of the order. Before Betts’ injury, the Dodgers were in the top three in wRC+, batting average, and runs scored. In the two months without Betts, they dropped to 9th in wRC+, 17th in batting average, and 11th in runs! Since he returned on August 12, they are tied for second in wRC+ and fifth in batting average.

Shohei Ohtani is three home runs and two stolen bases away from becoming the first player ever to reach 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases. Max Muncy has also boosted the Dodgers offense since he returned on August 19.

It’s a tie ballgame thanks to Shohei Ohtani 😤 pic.twitter.com/jFjITsWltZ

— MLB (@MLB) September 16, 2024

Fried has had strong numbers against the Dodgers, but he isn’t the same pitcher this season. The Dodgers are tied for second in wRC+ and third in batting average against left-handers this season! Continue to trust the Dodgers in your MLB betting picks.

Bet on Max Fried Over 2½ Earned Runs (+112)

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Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets