Best YRFI/NRFI Bets, 9/11: Snell Sizes up Brew Crew in San Fran

Blake Snell is on the mound for the Giants, hoping to atone for a rough first inning last week against Arizona. He was yanked after throwing 42 pitches in the frame, although much of the damage was done because of some sloppy defense behind him.

Prior to the abbreviated outing, Snell had put together a vintage 10-start stretch in which he posted a 2.04 ERA, including his no-hitter at Cincinnati. He has sub-3.00 ERAs in both the first inning and at home. We won’t place any stock in the long first frame last time out.

Blake Snell is reportedly planning to exercise his opt-out clause after the 2024 season

So we went ahead and ranked his Top 10 landing spots 👀 pic.twitter.com/FyGYsn3AiV

— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) August 28, 2024

On the other end sits Colin Rea and his 12-4 record. The 34-year-old, who was 14-14 in parts of five MLB seasons prior to this one, has been an unlikely stalwart in the Milwaukee rotation.

Rea is 5-1 with a 3.50 ERA on the road and will be up against a Giants lineup that ranks 25th in the majors in first-inning OPS (.662). He’s had some bumpy firsts over the last three starts, but prior to that went nine straight without allowing a run in that frame.

Survey the MLB odds for this one and then expect some early zeroes.

Bet on Rays-Phillies First Inning to Score – NO

2. Padres vs Mariners: King me!

We went 2-1 with our RIFI picks on Tuesday, dropping one in Seattle when Cal Raleigh took Yu Darvish deep in the opening inning for a historic homer. We’ll head right back to the Pacific Northwest for another crack at a winning wager with Michael King and Bryan Woo on the mound.

Cal Raleigh is the 12th catcher in MLB history with multiple 30+ HR seasons. pic.twitter.com/U9B7SqGnRM

— MLB (@MLB) September 11, 2024

Due to multiple injuries earlier in the season, Woo is still an inning shy of 100 and well short of qualifying for any statistical categories. But he’s made the most of his time on the mound with an ERA (2.36) that would be leading the majors if he had enough frames under his belt.

The 24-year-old has walked nine batters all year – zero in his last three starts and just three in 42 innings at home, where he’s 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA. You might think living in the zone so much would yield a lot of hits. Nope. He’s allowed just 25 of those (two homers) in those 42 innings at home, all good for a hard-to-believe 0.67 WHIP at T-Mobile.

Michael King solid outing vs Giants

6 IP, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
#LetsGoPadres pic.twitter.com/cXDmgPozyA

— San Diego Strong (@PadresStrong) September 7, 2024

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Woo has been solid in every inning, the first (2.00 ERA) notwithstanding. The San Diego Padres are a strong offense in that stanza, but Woo’s a force at home and up to the challenge.

As for King, he’s winding down a very strong first full year as a starter. He ranks ninth in the majors in both ERA (3.10) and strikeouts (185) after dominating San Francisco over six frames his last time out.

King matches Woo with a 2.00 first-inning ERA and he’s been better on the road (8-3, 2.86). Seattle managed one run on just three hits and whiffed nine times in six innings against King at San Diego earlier in the year.

We know the Mariners rarely score in the first inning at home, unless Raleigh can get into one. Take King to match Woo with a scoreless first and enjoy your winning MLB bet.

Bet on Padres-Mariners First Inning to Score – NO

3. Orioles vs Red Sox: Pivetta Letta Runs Score in First

These AL East combatants wrap up a three-game set with a rubber match at Fenway Park. It’s a huge one for the host Red Sox, who at 73-72 and with a plus-one run differential for the year (691-690) are the definition of mediocrity.

Nick Pivetta would certainly fall into that category. He piles up loads of strikeouts and can find a nice groove from time to time, but the righty is also finishing up his fourth straight year in Boston with an ERA north of 4.00.

Home runs can be an issue for Pivetta, who has allowed seven of them in his 22 first innings while posting a 6.55 ERA in that frame. The Orioles took him deep twice in five innings at Camden Yards last month and only four teams in the majors have more first-inning dingers than the O’s.

Nick Pivetta, 83mph Hammer…and Sword. 🔨⚔️ pic.twitter.com/8612Sqeswc

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 6, 2024

Dean Kremer is on the bump for Baltimore, another guy who could be placed in that “mediocre” category. He enters at 7-9 with a 4.27 ERA but history says that latter number could soar at Fenway Park.

The 28-year-old has given up an astounding 19 runs in 16⅓ career innings at Fenway, posting an astronomical 2.08 WHIP in his four starts at Boston. Rafael Devers, who had three hits in the Red Sox’s 12-3 win in the series opener, is 7 for 18 with two bombs off Kremer.

There figures to be plenty of crooked numbers in this one. Make a bet online in favor of some of those coming in the first.

Bet on Orioles-Red Sox First Inning to Score – YES

Question Of The Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.