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Bet Brewers to Thrive in First Five vs Padres

On Monday night, the San Diego Padres, fresh from their California tour, venture to Milwaukee to face the Brewers in what promises to be a pitching duel between Joe Musgrove and Joe Ross. The Vegas MLB betting odds on the first five innings favor the Padres (-½ +115) and feature a total of 4.5 runs.

Musgrove, a seasoned pitcher with notable achievements, has had a rocky start this season with a 6.87 ERA and three bad games out of four tries. In contrast, Ross has shined in his early outings for the Brewers, maintaining a commendable 1.80 ERA.

Bet Brewers to Thrive in First Five vs Padres
DL Hall #37 of the Milwaukee Brewers -Greg Fiume/Getty Images/AFP

 

This game not only tests Musgrove’s ability to bounce back, but also Ross’s consistency against a potentially challenging Padres lineup for picks for MLB.

 

F5 Pick: Brewers +½ (-135) vs Padres

Monday night marks the first time this season that the San Diego Padres will leave California as they take on the Milwaukee Brewers on the road. Musgrove (1-2, 6.87 ERA) will take the hill for the Padres while Ross (1-0,1.80) will go for Milwaukee.

 

Despite the MLB odds being against them, I believe the Milwaukee Brewers have a strong chance of taking an early lead in the game’s first five innings, which could lead to a win for us on Monday.

First off, I’ve always been a big fan of Musgrove. At one point, I thought he was among the best pitchers in the National League. He’s a former World Series champion and has a no-hitter under his belt, for those who snicker at the idea that Musgrove is elite. At least he was.

So far in 2024, Musgrove has been anything but lights out.

In four starts, Musgrove has been hammered by the Chicago Cubs (4 ER in 4.0 IP), San Francisco Giants (4 ER in 5⅔ IP), and Los Angeles Dodgers (5 ER in 2⅔ IP). The convenient thing about Musgrove is that because he hasn’t made it out of the sixth inning yet, we don’t have to worry about splits to work out his F5 inning stats.

Ross, meanwhile, has been fantastic for the Brewers in his two starts, allowing just two earned runs, zero home runs and a K/BB ratio of 10/6. He hasn’t faced an offense as good as the Padres, but San Diego is off to a slow start and isn’t looking as fearsome as its depth chart suggests.

Moreover, the Brewers have the highest return on investment (ROI) when looking at F5 inning results against the MLB spread. At 11-2, their 58.39% ROI outpaces second place by almost 6%. While the Padres are in third place in this category, the Brewers’ ROI is nearly double that of their Monday-night opponents (22.01%).

When we look at the Brewers’ stats at home, they have nearly double the ROI (64.26%) of the next-best team, the Dodgers (38.73%).

The offense is why Milwaukee has been such a good bet online in the first half of games. They lead the MLB in F5 inning ATS ROI and outpace the pack with 4.43 runs per game in the first five innings. The Padres rank 15th in this area at 2.67 runs.

The Padres need to rely on pitching to win out of the gate, and with Musgrove struggling big-time, that is not an MLB game pick I am willing to take a chance on.

 

 

Questions Of The Day

Who has the worst F5 ATS ROI?


The Seattle Mariners have the worst F5 inning ROI at -48.77%, thanks to a 4-11 record. The Giants have the same record, but their ROI is slightly better (-46.45%) due to their MLB lines for said games.

Which team scores the fewest F5 runs?


The Seattle Mariners offense has been a mess early in games, with a 1.25 run per game average in the first five innings.

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