Time is running out for the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners to play their way to the top of the American League West standings with division rival Texas building up some breathing room. However, the Sept. 25 series opener does feature two teams very much in contention for wild-card spots. The Mariners are listed by MLB betting lines today as the favorite.
Seattle is 4-6 over the last 10 games with Houston going 3-7 during that stretch. Houston holds down the final playoff spot in the American League with Seattle just a half-game behind. Both have work to do to catch Texas in the AL West race.
Seattle won eight of the first 10 meetings between the teams this season and that includes a 2-1 mark at home. Just two of those games have been decided by one run. It might make sense to roll with Houston to find a way to beat their division rivals.
When looking at the MLB odds, Houston is priced at -115 in the odds to make the playoffs with Seattle coming in at -120.
Justin Verlander (11-8, 3.44 ERA) vs Luis Castillo (14-7, 3.06)
Pitching matchups don’t get much better than this. These are the types of games that Verlander was acquired for.
After allowing seven hits and no runs in 11 innings in his final two starts in August, it has been more of a struggle for Verlander in September. He is 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA and seven home runs allowed in 26 innings.
This will be his first start this season against Seattle. Verlander was 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA in six starts against the Mariners a season ago with 43 strikeouts in 42⅓ innings. Verlander could be a solid option when it comes to the Astros vs Mariners best MLB bet.
Castillo is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.89 over his last three starts. He has allowed 12 hits and struck out 24 in 19 innings during that stretch.
In his lone start versus Houston this season, Castillo surrendered five hits and one run with 12 strikeouts in seven innings in a 10-1 win on July 7.
Luis Castillo averages 96 mph 🔥
Here are 3 mechanical keys 🔑
1. Creates tension in back hip
Notice the counter rotation of the lead leg into leg lift.
Back foot stays grounded, allowing him to create tension and to have something he can rotate against.
This sets up the… pic.twitter.com/TG5v1kQt9p
— Pitching Coach “U” (@PitchingCoachU) September 20, 2023
Astros vs Mariners Betting Odds
Altuve, Rodriguez Could Be Best MLB Prop Bets
A quick look at the MLB stats shows that Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve and Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez are tied for eighth in the majors with 18 runs scored in the month of September.
Altuve is priced at +110 and Rodriguez is -125 to score a run on Monday. Both could be solid options for the best prop bets tonight especially after Rodriguez had two hits with a double on Sunday. Altuve is also coming off a two-hit game.
Altuve has missed seven of the previous 10 meetings with Seattle during his injury-plagued season. In the three games he did play, he was 6-for-14 against the Mariners. Rodriguez is batting .319 with four extra-base hits and has scored eight runs against the Astros this season.
MLB Pick: Jose Altuve to score a run (+110)
MLB Pick: Julio Rodriguez to score a run (-125)
Go With Underdog Astros in Series Opener
Houston is second and Seattle fourth in the American League in home runs during the month of September. Add in the fact that 13 runs were scored in each of the last two games between the Mariners and Astros, and this game could very well head over the total despite the starting pitching matchup. Seeing the total set at 7 runs is even more of a reason to go with the game finishing over the total on the MLB bets today.
The Mariners and Astros are sixth and seventh among American League teams when it comes to the percentage of games finishing over the total. Houston is 15-14-2 against the total as a road underdog.
When looking at the MLB odds, the Astros are 24-7 as a road underdog while Seattle is just 25-38 as a home favorite, so that is plenty of reason to roll with Verlander and the Astros in this matchup.
MLB Pick: Houston Astros (+115)
Astros vs Mariners Game Information
• Game: Astros (85-710) vs Mariners (84-71)
• Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• Day/time: Monday, Sept. 25, 9:40 p.m. ET
• Astros vs Mariners Live Stream: MLB.tv