Rays to Jump on Red Sox

Tampa Bay won the AL East by eight games over both the Red Sox and Yankees, and won the season series with Boston 11-8. For the first time in franchise history, the Rays won 100 games as they cruised to their second straight division title behind remarkable pitching — from the top of the rotation to the bottom of the bullpen — and similarly roster-wide offensive production.

They also reaped the rewards from their highly regarded farm system with impressive rookie seasons from Randy Arozarena, McClanahan, uber-prospect Wander Franco, Luis Patiño and (in two starts) Shane Baz. The trade deadline pickup of Nelson Cruz turned out to be perfect to fill the DH spot and continued breakouts from Brandon Lowe, Mike Zunino and Austin Meadows helped provide enough run support. Plus, Tampa Bay somehow managed to deal with a stunning amount of pitching injuries, most notably to ace Tyler Glasnow (Tommy John surgery) and reliever Nick Anderson (elbow, back). The Rays always seem to find a way.

First pitch on Friday is at 8:08 p.m. ET. The BetUS Sportsbook has the Rays as -143 moneyline favorites while the Red Sox are +128. Current MLB lines have the over/under at eight runs.

McClanahan Has Been Great

As if the Rays weren’t good enough already, McClanahan stepped right into the rotation at the end of April and was stellar from the get-go. In 25 starts (123.1 innings), he posted a 3.43 ERA and struck out over 10 batters per nine innings. McClanahan’s only slight weakness was allowing around a hit per inning and an opposing batting average of .252, which is still very reasonable but does mean he gives up his fair share of baserunners.

Overall, the Rays couldn’t have asked for more from McClanahan. However, the playoffs are a different animal. This will be his postseason debut and certainly will be the most pressure-packed start of his life and he’ll have to make it against a very strong Red Sox lineup even if J.D. Martinez isn’t able to play due to a sprained ankle. The good thing for McClanahan is that he has fared pretty well against Boston and has been pitching his best lately. In his last four regular-season starts, McClanahan allowed just three runs in 18 innings (good for a 1.50 ERA). He has been his sharpest at the right time.

If you’re betting online, side with the rookie southpaw and the Rays. Tampa Bay has clearly cracked some sort of code with pitching development and trusts McClanahan enough to get this start, which is a sign that his composure — at least in the eyes of Tampa Bay’s coaching staff and front office — is well beyond his 24 years of age. Plus, if he doesn’t go deep into the game, the Rays’ incredibly versatile bullpen will be right there to keep things close.

Rodriguez Familiar With Rays

Boston was leaning toward starting Chris Sale, but he would be starting on three days’ rest so the team opted to go with fellow left-handed Eduardo Rodriguez.

Although he posted a 13-8 record, Rodriguez had a high ERA (4.74). He also made five starts against the Rays this season, going 1-1 with a 4.71 ERA. He struck out 24 and walked only three in 21 innings and was 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA at Tropicana Field.

Arozarena and Zunino are both 4-for-11 against Rodriguez while Lowe is 4-for-13 with three home runs. Rodriguez typically does not pitch deep into games, pitching beyond five innings only once in his last five starts.

He finished the regular season on a high note with five scoreless innings against the Washington Nationals. However, Tampa Bay’s stingy lineup hit a collective .277 against him this season and could get to Boston’s shaky bullpen fairly early. The MLB playoff odds recognize this, and you should go with Tampa Bay as the favorite on the runline.

Rays Have Huge Bullpen Edge

With the top two starters being inexperienced rookies who tend not to pitch deep into games, it’s very likely that Tampa Bay will rely heavily on its bullpen throughout the postseason, as the Rays tend to do regardless of who is on the mound. Just ask Blake Snell.

But there’s a method to the madness and that method works because Tampa Bay has so many reliable bullpen weapons who are used to pitching at any point during a game, from the second to the ninth innings. A stunning 14 different Rays have saved a game this season, which shows how basically everyone that’s going to come out of the bullpen in relief of McClanahan has some experience in high-leverage situations. No other team can say that.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, should be very concerned about their relief group. Boston got 3.2 strong innings of one-run ball from its bullpen on Tuesday against the Yankees, but the Red Sox don’t trust, with good reason, their relievers to carry them for a full series. Boston’s starting pitchers have to shoulder more of the burden because calling upon Ryan Brasier, Hansel Robles, Adam Ottavino and Tanner Houck to limit the Rays in the middle of games is an extremely tough ask. Boston is not built to do that while Tampa Bay is. In terms of MLB picks, go with the Rays by a couple runs on Thursday.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1½ Runs (+145)