Breaking Down MLB Win Totals: National League

Los Angeles Dodgers: 96½ Wins

The Los Angeles Dodgers did lose Corey Seager and Kenley Jansen this offseason but, by adding Freddie Freeman to an already loaded lineup, the Dodgers might be better than they were in an 106-win 2021 campaign.

The starting rotation has some question marks with Dustin May still recovering from Tommy John Surgery but the lineup is so stacked that it really doesn’t matter. Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Trea Turner are all bona fide MVP candidates and that doesn’t even include stars like Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Will Smith, or Chris Taylor. The talent is absurd.

This is clearly the best team — on paper — in the National League and it should win over 100 games for the third time in the last four seasons.

Pick: Over (-125)

New York Mets: 90½ Wins

The key for the New York Mets, as it always seems to be, is health. New York added a ton during the offseason, revamping its lineup with veterans Mark Canha, Starling Marte, and Eduardo Escobar and strengthening its rotation with Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt. But, the Mets have a lot of over-30 players with injury risks so there is some disaster potential.

However, New York is a much deeper team than in years past and made it clear that winning now is the top priority at all costs, so mid-season upgrades are certainly possible if needed. This team might have the second-highest ceiling in the NL even if the floor is relatively low. It should be much improved from its 77-85 from a year ago, especially with Buck Showalter running the show.

Pick: Over (-125)

Atlanta Braves: 90½ Wins

A lot of things needed to go right for the Atlanta Braves to win 88 games as the top team in the NL East and eventually win the World Series, even if they didn’t have Ronald Acuña Jr., Mike Soroka, or Marcell Ozuna (due to suspension) for much of the late-season run. The bullpen got better with Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh but the “swap” of Freddie Freeman for Matt Olson is a downgrade and the lineup strikes out a ton.

Atlanta is good but, en masse, probably isn’t as well-rounded as the New York Mets and will have to compete in a much-better NL East. If you’re betting online, look for the Braves to take a stepback.

Pick: Under (-105)

San Diego Padres: 89½ Wins

There was no bigger disappointment in baseball last season than the San Diego Padres, who collapsed in the second half to finish under .500. San Diego has loads of talent but injuries and pitching underperformance doomed the Padres, as did relatively disappointing seasons from a few position players.

Now, with Fernando Tatís Jr. likely to miss a few months with a fractured wrist, there isn’t much reason to think the Padres will be able to win 90 games. The pitching staff hasn’t been upgraded in any major way and the back half of the lineup isn’t particularly impressive. San Diego needs to tread water without Tatís but that’s much easier said than done.

Pick: Under (-120)

Milwaukee Brewers: 88½ Wins

The Milwaukee Brewers won 95 games a season ago, thanks in large part to their stellar rotation — headlined by Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta — and elite back-end of the bullpen. Offense was an issue last year and it will be again because the only major moves Milwaukee made was to add Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Renfroe, who are both good players but don’t really move the needle much.

Still, the over/under for Milwaukee on the BetUS sportsbook is a little low, especially in a division with three bad teams and a good (but not elite) team in the St. Louis Cardinals. The Brewers should be able to fatten up during divisional games because of their pitching and defense in order to eclipse 88 wins and possibly compete for their first-ever World Series title.

Pick: Over (-115)

San Francisco Giants: 85½ Wins

The San Francisco Giants were basically the exact opposite of the San Diego Padres in 2021. San Francisco started winning early and essentially never stopped, stunning the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the NL West with 107 victories. The Giants caught a lot of breaks and got once-in-a-lifetime performances from an unsustainable amount of players, yet they should be a playoff team once again.

Losing Kevin Gausman and Buster Posey really hurts, though, and San Francisco won’t come close to 100 wins again. However, the Giants are still a really deep team and should have a similar record to the Padres. They also added Carlos Rodón to a rotation that already has a bunch of reliable pieces. Expect some regression but not enough to prevent San Francisco from hitting the over.

Pick: Over (-115)

St. Louis Cardinals: 85½ Wins

The St. Louis Cardinals are another team that had a magical run in 2021, highlighted by a 17-game winning streak that spanned August and September. They’ll return basically their whole team and have a solid lineup with a serviceable rotation and solid bullpen.

But, Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes are both expected to miss the start of the season and the Cardinals probably won’t be as sharp defensively as they were last year. They were an example for whom everything clicked in a way that just wasn’t too sustainable. They should win right around 85 games but the under is the move because of the uncertainty in the No. 4 and No. 5 spots in the rotation.

Pick: Under (-115)

Philadelphia Phillies: 84½ Wins

Despite high hopes, the Philadelphia Phillies won only 82 games a year ago and should finish right around that figure again in 2020. Philadelphia added huge power bats in Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos and high-leverage bullpen arms in Corey Knebel, Jeurys Familia, and Brad Hand, but they still don’t really match up to the New York Mets or Atlanta Braves.

The Phillies’ terrible defense got worse with Schwarber and Castellanos. Also, Philadelphia has no starting pitching depth which is a concern because of injury issues with Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin. The Phillies just don’t have much margin for error because of how bad their defense is likely to be and because of how top-heavy their bullpen is (once again). Also, losing Hector Neris was something that flew under-the-radar a bit but will be impactful.

Pick: Under (-115)

Miami Marlins: 76½ Wins

Already stocked with one of the most-talented rotations in baseball, the Miami Marlins had a productive offseason. They added Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler for much-needed power, Jacob Stallings for defense, and Joey Wendle for versatility.

The problem with Miami is that the bullpen isn’t too reliable and the rotation is really young. On paper, the Marlins should win much more than 77 games, yet they’re in a tough division and are probably a year or two away from truly trying to contend.

Pick: Under (-115)

Cincinnati Reds: 74½ Wins

This might be the most surprising of the MLB lines. Everything the Cincinnati Reds did this offseason — from unloading Sonny Gray, Wade Miley, and Jesse Winker for salary relief to not trying to re-sign Nick Castellanos — indicated a team more focused on shedding financial obligations than improving on the field.

So, they should significantly decline from their 83-win 2021 season. The bullpen was a mess last year and has more question marks now, and there are a few starting spots in the lineup for which the Reds only have sub-replacement level options. This team should be bad this season and is looking like a potential trade deadline seller.

Pick: Under (-115)

Chicago Cubs: 73½ Wins

The Chicago Cubs aren’t in a great spot either but at least they made an effort to improve in free agency by signing high-priced Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki. They revamped the rotation by picking up Wade Miley and Drew Smyly and made a bunch of smart fringe moves in the bullpen and in the lineup.

Chicago won’t be a contender in 2022, to be sure. However, the Cubs should be much more competitive even if the position player mix is pretty underwhelming overall.

Pick: Over (-115)

Washington Nationals: 71½ Wins

The Washington Nationals did a lot of selling in July and didn’t do much buying this offseason, so they will be bad once again. Nelson Cruz was a nice pickup but he seems like someone Washington signed just to could trade him for a nice haul to an actual contender in a few months. Their other pickups don’t move the needle at all and the rotation could be a particular weak spot. In a strong NL East, it won’t be easy for Washington to avoid losing 95+ games.

Pick: Under (-115)

Colorado Rockies: 68½ Wins

Signing Kris Bryant to a $180 million deal was one of the weirdest moves the Colorado Rockies could have made. And, because it’s the Rockies, that was basically the only significant move they made all offseason. Colorado actually played well down the stretch, finishing up with 74 wins behind a decent starting rotation.

But, Trevor Story’s gone and a mediocre bullpen (and bad lineup) is mostly unchanged. Extending Ryan McMahon was a nice move, to be fair, yet it doesn’t change how underwhelming Colorado’s group of position players is behind Bryant, McMahon, and C.J. Cron. 68½ wins is low but this team just won’t score enough runs to win 70+ games again.

Pick: Under (-115)

Arizona Diamondbacks: 65½ Wins

Let’s go from one disappointing NL West team to another. The Arizona Diamondbacks were a putrid 52-110 in 2021 and, outside of adding some back-end bullpen arms, Arizona looks much like it did last season.

However, the Diamondbacks dealt with nonstop injuries a year ago and have an interesting position player core that is better than the Colorado Rockies’. Arizona should win more games than the Rockies and the Diamondbacks have a surefire All-Star in Ketel Marte.

Pick: Over (-125)

Pittsburgh Pirates: 64½ Wins

The Pittsburgh Pirates weren’t much better, going 61-101 in 2021. Their lineup is still bleak outside of Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes and both the rotation and bullpen are lacking depth. However, the Pirates have a good farm system that could send Oneil Cruz and Roansy Contreras to the Majors this season, both of whom have loads of potential.

It’s going to be another rough season in Pittsburgh but the future should be bright.

Pick: Under (-105)