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Picks, Prediction for Brewers vs Blue Jays on Tuesday, May 30
The Milwaukee Brewers look to bounce back after a series loss over the weekend with a positive result against the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday. Neither team has been playing well over the last few weeks, but the Brewers are in first place in the National League Central and have a lot to play for. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are fifth in the American League East, losing ground by the day.
The MLB odds for Tuesday’s series opener favor the Blue Jays on the money line.
Brewers Clinging to NL Central Lead
May has not been kind to the Brew Crew, with a 10-15 overall record after going 18-9 in April. Milwaukee’s MLB betting record isn’t better at 4-6 against the spread (ATS) in their previous 10 games and a return on investment (ROI) of -21.05%.
Despite a sketchy record, the Brewers cover 62% of the time as road dogs and 56% as underdogs at any venue.
Blue Jays’ Hole Deepens
The Blue Jays are officially in last place in the AL East, despite having a winning record of 28-26. But the Jays have been playing like losers recently, with a 3-8 record against the MLB spreads and 3-7 outright mark in their last 10.
Toronto is one of the worst MLB bets in the league when playing as home favorites, with a 6-12 ATS record (33.3%).
Starting Pitchers
Adrian Houser (1-0, 2.25 ERA) vs Yusei Kikuchi (5-2, 4.56)
Adrian Houser has been a significant boon for the Brewers’ rotation since making his debut in early May. In four starts since, Houser led the Brewers to a 3-1 record and notched his first decision on Wednesday. The righty hasn’t allowed a run to score in his previous two outings (11⅓ IP) and just one home run all season.
Yusei Kikuchi is not a boon for Toronto but rather a cinder block tied to its ankle. He is bringing this team down with him and sports an ugly 6.29 ERA with a 1-2 record in his last six starts. He is getting murdered by the long ball, with six home runs allowed in his previous three games.
Shane McClanahan
– Real ERA: 2.05
– xERA: 3.58
Crazy one here. Last year’s and 2021’s expecteds don’t look that great either for Shane. Something to keep an eye on
Chris Bassitt
– Real ERA: 3.03
– xERA: 4.60
Yusei Kikuchi
– Real ERA: 4.08
– xERA: 5.06
— Sean Basile (@SeanBazz12) May 24, 2023
Brewers vs Blue Jays Head-to Head
While Houser has the numbers to warrant an MLB bet on Tuesday, his head-to-head stats against the Blue Jays are worrying. With a .304 career batting average and .732 OPS against the current Toronto lineup, Houser might stumble for the first time this season. Conversely, the current Brewers lineup has terrible numbers against Kikuchi with a .176 average.
The Brewers were 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS against the Jays last season, while the over is 4-0 in their previous four meetings.
Brewers vs Blue Jays Game Information
- Game: Brewers (28-25) vs Blue Jays (28-26)
- Location Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
- Day/Time: Tuesday, May 30, 7:07 p.m. ET
- Brewers vs Jays Live Stream: MLB.tv
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Brewers vs Blue Jays Betting Lines
Over/Under Pick
At 9½ runs, I feel the total for this game is exaggerated and should be 8-8½, with two lackluster offenses facing off. Kikuchi has been a mess lately, but he does well against this lineup, and I predict he will hold Milwaukee to three or fewer runs before the bullpen comes calling. The under is my best MLB picks for Tuesday.
Pick: Under 9½ (-110)
Moneyline Pick
I like the Brewers to come in and upset the Blue Jays on their home turf in this spot. I like what Houser has been doing, and the Jays have proven they are not a great team at the Rogers Centre.
Pick: Brewers +145
