The Milwaukee Brewers are barely holding onto their lead in the National League Central, with the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates breathing down their necks. Friday marks the series opener between the Brewers and Reds in a weekend full of ramifications for the division lead. If the Reds sweep the Brew Crew, they could take over sole possession of first place.
The MLB odds list the Brewers as heavy favorites on the moneyline with a betting total of 9½ runs.
Brewers Cover Just 33% of Time as Road Favorites
The Milwaukee Brewers may have an advantage on the mound, which we will get into later, but we can’t ignore their terrible record against the MLB lines when playing on the road. The Brewers are 3-6 against the spread (ATS) as favorites on the road and have a return on investment (ROI) of -7.60% in their previous 10 away games.
Reds are Top-Tier Home Team ATS
There aren’t many reasons to get excited about placing a bet online in favor of the Cincinnati Reds. But, They cover over 57% of the time at home and sport a top-five ROI at Great American Ballpark.
Furthermore, the Reds were on a seven-game ATS winning streak that was snapped in Thursday’s finale against the Boston Red Sox.
Corbin Burnes (4-4, 3.68 ERA) vs Brandon Williamson (0-0, 5.02)
Corbin Burnes has been a disappointment for the Brewers in 2023. He’s not playing terribly, but he certainly isn’t pitching like the ace he was the previous three seasons. The Brewers are 1-4 against the MLB spread in his last five starts, while Burnes is 1-3 in that span.
Burnes has solid numbers against the Reds, with a .140 batting average against their current lineup in 50 all-time at-bats.
Corbin Burnes, 3Ks in the 4th. pic.twitter.com/6b1gD5slk1
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 27, 2023
On the other hand, Brandon Williamson is pitching down to expectations for a rookie listed as a reliever. The young southpaw has yet to notch his first win, but the Reds are 3-0 in games he has started. Cincinnati has a 3-0 ATS record in that span. However, Williamson is not the reason for the Reds’ record; Cincy’s run support is. Williamson allowed three or more runs in back-to-back starts with more walks than strikeouts. The Reds are a risky MLB bet with Williamson on the bump.
Brandon Williamson Pitch Mix 5/27 (Stuff / Location / Pitching)
CUT (30%) 115 / 98 / 97 👍
FF (26%) 58 / 106 / 96
SL (21%) 113 / 90 / 89
CH (18%) 75 / 107 / 101 👀
CURVE (5%) 109/ 78 / 69
Love to see the CUT take over as his primary FB. Solid Loc+ on his low-Stuff pitches too. pic.twitter.com/loA9wgEheu
— Reds in Four (@RedsInFour) May 28, 2023
Brewers vs Reds Head-to Head
The Brewers have dominated the Reds in this rivalry with a 13-6 record against Cincinnati last season. The Reds were 9-10 against the MLB betting spread, while the Over/Under was 10-9.
Brewers vs Reds Game Information
- Game: Brewers (29-26) vs Reds (26-29)
- Location Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Day/Time: Friday, June 2, 5:10 p.m. ET
- Brewers vs Reds Live Stream: MLB.tv
Brewers vs Reds Betting Lines
The Over is 7-2 in their previous nine games during the Reds’ current heater. With two less-than-trustworthy starters on the mound, I like this series opener to soar over the 9½-run total.
Pick: Over 9½ (-110)
As much as I want the value of the Reds on Friday, with Williamson on the mound, I can’t take that risk. The Brewers have little value on the ML at -175, but at least they will more than likely win.
Pick: Brewers -175
My best bet for Friday is for the Brewers to win and cover the runline. Milwaukee has a better team from top to bottom and a stronger starter on the bump.
Pick: Brewers -1½ (-135)