The Cincinnati Reds are in bad shape and one loss away from a four-game sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s a stark contrast to how the Reds played in their previous two series, with a sweep of the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley and a win over the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.
The MLB odds for Monday’s series finale favor the struggling Reds.
Brewers’ Offense Gaining Momentum
The Milwaukee Brewers are heading into the finale of a lengthy seven-game road trip with a chance to sweep the Reds on Monday. Despite struggling at the plate for most of the season, the Brewers’ offense is picking up steam and has led Milwaukee to three straight wins with a combined total of 20 runs.
The mini-streak gives the Brewers a profitable return on investment of 14.07% in their previous five games on the road.
Reds Testing Farm System
The Cincinnati Reds don’t have much to get excited about at the major league level, but their farm system is already producing significant results. The team called up shortstop Matt McLain in mid-May to bolster their infield hitting. In 79 at-bats, McClain is hitting .342 and already looks like the best bat on the team.
The Reds are 6-3 against the MLB spread in McClain’s last nine starts with his contributions on offense.
The Reds will dip into their prospects list again with Monday’s starter, Andrew Abbott.
Julio Teheran (1-1, 0.82 ERA) vs Andrew Abbott (0-0, 0.00)
Julio Teheran got a late start to the season but has impressed in limited action. Teheran allowed just two runs and eight hits in his first 11 innings. His strikeout numbers are low, but Teheran has only issued one walk.
Considering the Reds’ starter is making his MLB debut, Teheran and the Brewers are a worthy underdog to bet online.
Julio Teheran (now with the Brewers), got the win tonight and since joining MIL, has a 0.82 ERA. He and 3 other pitchers combined to record ZERO strikeouts in a 9 inning game and the team still got the win. I don’t think I’ve ever seen this: 0 K’s, from any pitcher. pic.twitter.com/gpbHvMOxt4
— ⚾️KS_Southpaw_™ 🏟️ (@BravesFan_Dan) June 1, 2023
Abbott chewed through the competition at Double-A Chattanooga with an impressive 36 strikeouts in just 15⅔ innings. After his promotion to Triple-A Louisville, he struggled a bit in seven starts with a 3.05 ERA and 14 walks in 38⅓ innings. Despite the jump in ERA and eight home runs, Abbott’s strikeout numbers remain promising with an average of 1.4 per inning.
Despite his minor league success, his home run issues are a significant concern heading into Monday’s game against the Brewers. The Reds are a surprising favorite on the MLB lines with Abbott on the bump.
Brewers vs Reds Head-to Head
The Brewers jumped all over the Reds in the first three games of this series with a 3-0 straight-up record and a 2-1 mark against the spread. Including last season, the Reds are 10-11 ATS.
Cincinnati is playing better than most people expected, but there is no getting around its lack of talent, questionable starting pitcher, and current four-game losing streak.
Brewers vs Reds Game Information
- Game: Brewers (32-27) vs Reds (26-33)
- Location Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
- Day/Time: Monday, June 5, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Brewers vs Reds Live Stream: MLB.tv
Brewers vs Reds Betting Lines
Abbott allowed eight home runs in his previous seven starts in Triple-A, and I think he’s a prime candidate to get lit up on Monday.
The Brewers’ offense may be underachieving, but they still rank 11th in home runs despite a poor start to 2023.
Pick: Over 9½ (-115)
The Brewers have a lot going for them on Monday, and I’m not sure why they are MLB betting underdogs against an objectively lousy team. Milwaukee may be struggling out of the gate, but its offense is picking up steam and will feast on Abbott’s every miscue.
Not to mention the Brewers are one win away from a four-game sweep in Cincy.
Pick: Brewers +118