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Pirates Play Host to Reds

Cincinnati's Offense to Decide NL Central Series

The Pittsburgh Pirates will try to escape the cellar of the National League Central as they play host to the division rival Cincinnati Reds for a three-game series beginning on Monday night.

Pittsburgh was able to avoid the sweep on Sunday, beating the Chicago Cubs 6-5, but stands in last place of the NL Central with a 14-19 record. The Reds sit two games in front of the Pirates with a 15-16 record after they split a two-game series with the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Park.

Jesse Winker of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates with Mike Moustakas after scoring
Ron Schwane/Getty Images/AFP

The MLB betting lines have the Reds as favorites to take this series as a -160 moneyline favorite. The Pirates’ odds to win the series come in at +130.

Winning Without Wade

Cincinnati’s Wade Miley had to wait 83 minutes for his Friday start against the Indians to begin, but it was worth the wait as he no-hit the in-state rival. Unfortunately for the Reds, Miley will not be pitching in this series and the rest of Cincinnati’s pitching staff has struggled to start the season.

The Reds’ 4.81 team ERA ranks 27th in the majors and the team ranks in the bottom 10 in hits allowed, saves and WHIP. Even though the Reds do not have the best pitching staff in baseball, they still hold an advantage in the starting pitching matchup of this series, starting on Monday with right-hander Tyler Mahle. The 26-year-old has 1-1 record with a 3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts in 30.2 IP.

Mahle’s opponent on Monday will be Pittsburgh’s, Mitch Keller. He comes into Monday’s matchup with a 6.29 ERA and has allowed more hits and walks than Mahle despite pitching only 24.1 innings. Cincinnati has seen success when its offense is able to produce because their pitching has not been dependable. The Reds haven’t gone into many series with the starting pitching advantage, but if their pitchers can do their job, the Cincinnati offense is sure to feast off of the Pirates’ staff.

Trying to Right the Ship

The Pirates were swept by the Reds in their last series in early April, during Pittsburgh’s putrid 1-6 start. The Pirates being in last place of the NL Central is no surprise given that they are a young team in the midst of a rebuild, but the offensive production has been a struggle.

Pittsburgh ranks 28th in runs scored, which is effectively last in the majors because the Washington Nationals and New York Mets postponed their opening series due to a COVID-19 outbreak. The Pirates also are last in home runs, tied with the Mets at 22. Their home run leader is third baseman Phillip Evans with only four, while second baseman Adam Frazier has been doing his best to perform in the struggling offense. The Georgia native leads the team with a .300 batting average and .374 OBP with 39 hits.

Cincinnati started the season red hot and were constantly putting up runs and outpowering its opponents, something the Pirates found out firsthand. Cincinnati beat the Pirates 14-1 on April 6 and followed that up with a 11-4 drumming the next day. This time the series will take place at PNC Park, a more pitcher-friendly venue. This could help the Pirates keep Cincinnati in check, but the Reds have so much power in their lineup that it is hard for any ballpark to contain them.

Too Much Reds Power

Even though the Reds have cooled off after their sizzling start, they are still capable of an offensive explosion, as evidenced by their 13-12 win against the Cubs on May 2. Joey Votto has been placed on the 10-day IL with a broken thumb, but Cincinnati’s lineup is so deep and powerful that it can pick up the slack for the former NL MVP. With the series in Pittsburgh this time around, things are sure to be much closer than the two blowouts earlier in the season. The Reds did have an unplanned off-day because of the Cleveland rainout and that should help them rest up and focus on their division opponent.

Both pitching staffs are a liability but the deciding factor in this series is the Cincinnati offense. The Reds will flex their muscles on the Pirates pitchers, leading them to a series victory. In the MLB sportsbook, we are going with the Reds -150 to win the series.

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