The New York Mets play host to the Colorado Rockies for game two of a four-game series at Citi Field. Colorado pulled off the upset and took game one 3-2, a score that fell under the run total. New York still holds a first place spot in the National League East with a 21-20 record, while the Rockies are a distant fourth place in the NL West at 19-29. It looks like it might be more of the same in game two looking at the pitching matchups, but is there a legitimate reason to bet the over in the MLB sportsbook? Let’s take a look and find out.
|Game: Colorado Rockies (19-29) at New York Mets (21-20)
Location: Citi Field
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
|Colorado Rockies||Over 6||-120|
|New York Mets||Under 6||Ev|
Kyle Freeland will take the mound for the Rockies for his first start of the season. The southpaw suffered a shoulder strain in spring training and pitched two rehab starts in Triple-A for the Albuquerque Isotopes. It is hard to expect much from Freeland in his first start, as he is going up against a Mets lineup that has some big names, although they have not been performing up to their capabilities.
The Mets rank at the bottom of most team offensive statistics. The obvious reason is because they have played the least amount of games, but even taking that into consideration, the offense has been brutal to watch at times. It has become a meme at this point, where New York pitchers can be tossing a shutout, and you still have to question if the Mets will win the game.
Even the offensive leaders of the Mets do not have impressive numbers. Pete Alonso leads the team in batting average at .236, and that sums up perfectly how inept the lineup has been. Many fans are worried about the prolonged slump of Francisco Lindor, he has had moments where you think he is back, but he falls right back down. As bad as the Mets have been, they are even worse when they have to face a lefty. If you are looking for New York to carry the over in this game, it does not look likely.
Jacob deGrom is pitching for the Mets, and that is enough to scare any logical bettor away from an over run total. DeGrom is back from a back injury that put him on the 10-day injured list. The New York ace has been unbelievable with a 0.68 ERA, a 0.60 WHIP and 65 strikeouts in 40 innings. But, with little to no run support, deGrom has a 3-2 record. There should be slight concern about how long the Mets will let deGrom go. If he does not have a pitch limit, that is a scary sight for the Rockies, but they have been on a nice little stretch of wins recently.
The Rockies are currently riding a four-game winning streak and Monday’s victory was only their third win on the road. Colorado needs deGrom to be on a leash, because when he pitched against the Rockies on April 17, it was not pretty. In a seven-inning game, deGrom pitched six dominant innings and struck out 14 batters, allowing three hits and no earned runs. That game was at Coors Field, a known hitter’s safe haven, but it is hard to drive the ball through the thin mile-high air when deGrom strikes you out nine consecutive times.
It will be cool and partly cloudy in Queens on Tuesday. It is expected to be 69 degrees at first pitch with little to no chance of rain.
The line started out at 6½ and shaded to the under, but that didn’t stop the money from coming in on the under. The oddsmakers have now moved the line to six, with a continued shade to the under
Check our MLB lines!
With the run total set at six, it is very enticing to take them over, but the stats and the pitching matchup suggest otherwise. Anytime deGrom is on the mound, you should not expect anything from the opposing lineup, which puts all of the pressure on the Mets offense to carry the run total. The problem is New York struggles against lefties, and against a lefty with no 2021 tape, this could be a dual shutout. If you want to bet the over, your best bet is that both pitchers have elevated pitch counts, which forces the manager’s hand no matter how much they are dealing.
In game two of this four-game set, the trend will continue, and inside the MLB betting lines, we are taking under six runs.