Cubs vs Padres Prediction, Picks and MLB Prop Bets for April 15: Ride Value With San Diego (+138)

Cubs vs Padres Prediction Today, April 15, 2025

My prediction

• Moneyline Pick: Padres +138

The Padres are now 14-3 on the season and 11-0 at home after Monday’s dominant 10-4 win, where they scored seven runs across the sixth through eighth innings. San Diego is top-5 in both team batting average (.284) and hits per game (9.35) while Cubs pitching ranks 21st in ERA (4.37) and 25th in WHIP (1.389). This is sharp MLB betting value against a Cubs team struggling to protect leads. Consider the Padres’ hot start when expanding your MLB futures odds portfolio, too.

Bet on Padres ML (+138)

• Over/Under Pick: Over 7.5 Total Runs (-120)

Chicago leads MLB in runs per game (6.32), hits into the fewest double plays and walks more than any team at 4.53 per game, per Cubs vs Padres stats. Which means the Cubs constantly have traffic on the bases. San Diego ranks 2nd in hits per game (9.35) and 1st in OBP (.352), putting relentless pressure on opposing pitchers. Monday’s 14-hit, 14-run slugfest wasn’t a fluke. Based on the latest MLB news, this Over has value.

Bet on Cubs vs Padres Over 8 Runs (-110)

Cubs vs Padres Prop Picks and Best Bets

• Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 Hits (+136)

Dansby Swanson has gone hitless in five of his last six games and is now batting .176 with a .235 OBP. Not great for MLB prop bets. He’s 0-for-his-last-10 and struck out twice on Monday, looking completely lost at the plate. The Cubs may be scoring runs, but it’s happening despite Swanson. In a matchup against a San Diego staff ranked No. 2 in ERA (2.70) and opposing batting average (.189), this is one of the sharper MLB prop picks today.

Dansby Swanson is on an extremely unlucky stretch to begin his 2025 season.

He is batting just .188 despite a .276 xBA — the 13th worst difference in the league.

Along with that he ranks 11th in the league in squared up rate, at 37.1%. pic.twitter.com/dg1c9ZelnI

— The Wrigley Wire (@TheWrigleyWire) April 14, 2025

Bet on Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 Hits (+136)

• Padres Over 3.5 Runs (-115)

San Diego is averaging 4.88 runs per game and has scored 5+ in five of its last seven. Monday’s 10-run outburst came off five different Cubs pitchers, exposing serious issues in Chicago’s bullpen. Cubs pitchers have allowed 10+ hits per game in three straight and currently rank 25th in hits allowed per game. With the Padres ranking 2nd in team OBP (.352), this is a strong addition to your MLB expert picks.

Bet on Padres Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-115)

• YRFI: Yes Run First Inning (+104)

The Cubs lead the league in first-inning scoring, per MLB betting tips, and just saw Michael Busch go deep in the 4th Monday. He’s been red-hot to start games. The Padres, meanwhile, have scored in the 1st inning in three of their last four at home. The Cubs‘ pitching allowed a 1st-inning HR to Fernando Tatis Jr. on Monday and showed cracks early.

Bet on Run First Inning – YES (+104)

Cubs vs Padres How to Watch

• Game: Cubs (11-8) vs Padres (14-3)
• Date/Time: Tuesday, April 15, 9:40 p.m. ET
• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Padres vs Nationals Live Stream: MLB.TV

Get More MLB Game Picks, Expert Analysis and Best Bets

• Cubs vs Padres Same Game Parlay Picks for April 15: Fade Imanaga (4.5) Strikeout Prop

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets